Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s creative expertise have earned him the fame of a public relations genius acknowledged by each pals and foes. United States President Donald Trump, who has overtly attacked him in public, famously referred to as the Ukrainian chief “the best salesman on Earth”. A way more sympathetic voice, New York Occasions columnist David French, has not too long ago portrayed Zelenskyy as “the brand new chief of free world”.
However Zelenskyy’s PR genius can do little or no on the subject of altering the dynamics of the battlefield within the Russia-Ukraine battle. In latest weeks, his administration and allies have tried arduous to create the impression that the battle may be approaching a turning level. However realities on the bottom inform a distinct story.
For instance, there have been official claims that in February, Ukraine made extra territorial features than Russia did. Some pro-Ukrainian battle monitoring platforms have supported these claims whereas others haven’t. You will need to notice these calculations might be tough provided that alongside the frontline there may be an intensive gray zone during which management is unclear. The advances themselves are measured in 150-200 sq. kilometres per 30 days. In different phrases, methodology might be manipulated so as to produce the specified conclusion: that Ukraine is gaining floor.
In actuality, there may be nothing in any respect that implies a major change within the battlefield dynamics which have been in place for at the very least two years now.
Extra importantly, Russian troops are at the moment besieging a lot of industrial cities within the north of the Donetsk area. Their advances all alongside the northern border, particularly, are extending the lively entrance line by lots of of kilometres, which is making Ukraine’s personnel shortages much more acute.
4 years into the battle, the Ukrainian military has needed to resort to brutal campaigns to implement obligatory conscription, pulling younger males off the streets of cities and villages. In the meantime, Russia continues to be capable of lure volunteers by providing lavish compensation.
Ukrainian officers have additionally claimed that Russia is dropping extra troops than it is ready to recruit based mostly on doubtful casualty information. Zelenskyy, particularly, has acknowledged the Russians suffered the very best variety of month-to-month casualties in March this 12 months – 35,000. However his assertion contradicted his personal Ministry of Defence, which claimed that the very best Russian month-to-month losses crossed 48,000 in January 2025, with a median month-to-month price of roughly 35,000 all through 2025.
Zelenskyy’s chief of employees, former navy intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov, additionally contradicted this narrative that Russia is having main issue with deploying personnel. He acknowledged in a latest interview that the collapse of the Russian mobilisation effort was not forthcoming.
It needs to be famous that Ukraine is waging a profitable drone marketing campaign to wreck Russian oil amenities. However it’s uncertain that it may change something past offering dramatic footage of oil tanks on hearth for TV networks to broadcast.
In April, Russian oil revenues surged to $9bn, because of the US-Israel battle on Iran. The windfall Russia bought in a month is equal to 10 p.c of the mortgage Ukraine is to obtain from the European Union over the following two years to assist fund its battle effort.
It can’t be denied that Russia has sustained main financial losses because of the battle, and Russian President Vladimir Putin has acknowledged as a lot. However the Russian financial system shows a lot the identical downturn as different European economies, additionally affected by wars in Ukraine and Iran.
Russia’s gross home product (GDP) per capita adjusted for buying energy parity (an indicator reflecting residing requirements) at the moment exceeds that of much less prosperous EU nations, similar to Romania and Greece, in accordance with the IMF charts. The identical indicator for Ukraine is on par with Mongolia and Egypt, whereas the nation’s essential infrastructure lies in ruins and thousands and thousands of Ukrainians have fled the nation, most of them for good.
With Ukraine’s prospects bleaker than ever, pro-Ukrainian audiences bounce on each information from Russia, which they hope might signify “cracks within the regime”. Final month, an Instagram video by Russian influencer Victoria Bonya made Western headlines for its daring criticism of presidency insurance policies. There could also be frustration in Russia, however the regime is much from approaching a downfall.
This narrative, nonetheless, serves to distract Ukrainian and EU residents from the painful reality that the battle is heading in the direction of a impasse at greatest and Ukraine’s collapse at worst. Zelenskyy might have acquired a lifeline with the $90bn euro mortgage, however his and his allies’ lack of imaginative and prescient and successful technique is staggering.
The truth has already begun to kick in. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz not too long ago urged that Ukraine must concede a few of its territory to Russia to finish the battle however get a sooner observe to EU membership in change. The EU’s defence chief, Andrius Kubilius, has gone additional by claiming that NATO membership for Ukraine was out of the query and EU membership was going to be a “sophisticated course of”. As an alternative, he proposed a navy union of Ukraine and different European nations – an concept that Moscow will reject, decoding it as NATO via the again door.
What these contradictory statements manifest is that the principle discount over the contours of peace is at the moment going not a lot between Zelenskyy and Putin, however between Zelenskyy and his Western, primarily European, allies.
As Budanov not too long ago claimed, the positions of Kyiv and Moscow might be moved nearer to what’s realistically attainable in peace talks. However Zelenskyy wants to indicate at the very least some type of acquire for Ukraine when a really unpalatable model of a peace treaty is lastly signed. Ideally, that acquire can be EU membership or actual safety ensures, however as Merz and Kubilius’s statements recommend, the probabilities of attaining both are slim.
The frustration amongst Ukrainians is already palpable. The top of the Ukrainian parliament’s fiscal committee, Danylo Hetmantsev, stated European officers ought to cease seeing Ukrainians as “a instrument for fixing somebody’s geopolitical duties” or as a “human defend”. They don’t have any proper to outline Ukraine’s future, he insisted.
However Zelenskyy, who’s dogged by a large-scale investigation into corruption involving his fast entourage, appears to carry no playing cards to play in opposition to Russia or his Western allies. The established order during which he retains the place of a battle chief serves him properly, however it’s more and more changing into untenable.
The views expressed on this article are the writer’s personal and don’t essentially mirror Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.
