Could 9 is a honored date on the Russian calendar. The anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany in World Struggle II is normally commemorated with a grand navy parade outdoors the Kremlin, on Moscow’s Purple Sq..
“For contemporary Russia, it’s the primary vacation of the 12 months,” mentioned Oleg Ignatov, senior Russia analyst at Disaster Group. “There are two foremost holidays in Russia, the ninth of Could and the New Yr. And should you requested Russians, what’s the foremost vacation, I believe they’d reply you that it’s the ninth of Could.”
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This 12 months, nonetheless, for the primary time in almost 20 years, there shall be no tanks, missiles or junior cadets within the parade. The choice to carry again on showcasing navy tools comes on account of heightened safety fears over the struggle in Ukraine.
Nonetheless, personnel from higher-level navy academies will nonetheless participate within the procession on foot, whereas the aerial portion of the programme will stay unchanged – an aerobatic present, adopted by a group of Sukhoi Su-25 fighter jets portray the sky within the tricolours of the Russian flag.
In official statements, the Kremlin has referred to “the present operational scenario,” and threats of “Ukrainian terrorist exercise.”
Ukrainian drones at the moment are hanging deeper and deeper into Russian territory on an virtually each day foundation, hitting targets reminiscent of oil services and airfields. A current spate of drone assaults on the oil refinery in Tuapse, on Russia’s Black Coastline, has precipitated an ecological disaster and prompted the evacuation of the city.
“Drones are certainly the first means to assault Russia’s territory,” defined Olha Polishchuk, analysis supervisor for Europe, Central Asia and the Caucasus at Armed Battle Location & Occasion Information (ACLED). “They’re comparatively low cost, modifiable and might journey lengthy distances … Each Ukraine and Russia have switched to utilizing primarily drones for his or her assaults.
He mentioned that since 2025, drone strikes “utterly overshadowed different assaults”.
“Their use has been efficient total; most drones are intercepted however should you ship sufficient of them, some will attain the goal.”
Fears of ‘political and psychological penalties’
Safety and anti-drone defences have been tightened within the capital because the Ukrainian armed forces started sending drones there in 2023, with one hanging the Kremlin itself.
Cellular web has been periodically shut off in Moscow, Saint Petersburg and different areas of the nation within the days working as much as the occasion, with suppliers citing “safety causes”.
“Moscow has very sturdy air defence, which incorporates short-range surface-to-air missile methods, different missile methods, small arms and digital warfare methods,” defined Polishchuk. “It’s a multilayered system positioned each round and inside town. Up to now, authorities have shut down mobile networks in Moscow to complicate drone navigation.
“Ukraine very hardly ever assaults Moscow as a result of the air defence would require a really giant swarm of drones for any assault to land, but additionally as a result of there are many different strategically related targets that don’t carry such a excessive danger of civilian casualties.”
However, the Victory Day ceremonies current a transparent danger. Such a focus of troops and autos is susceptible not solely on the day of the parade itself however earlier than and after, too: in any case, that {hardware} should be saved someplace.
“In fact, they care about drones which might fly from Ukraine, however most of those drones are being intercepted,” Disaster Group’s Ignatov instructed Al Jazeera. “They’re extra afraid of teams of individuals utilizing small drones that are delivered to Russia, and used in opposition to targets inside Russia, like in Operation Spiderweb [in 2025] … Even when one or a few small drones hit a navy parade, it might not trigger a casualty, however it’ll have a demonstrative and psychological impact. I believe what they care about is the political and psychological penalties of this.”
The Victory Day parade is a practice from the communist period, an event on which the citizenry may catch a glimpse of Soviet statesmen waving from atop Lenin’s tomb, in addition to an opportunity for the then-superpower to indicate off its navy would possibly. However when the USSR collapsed in December 1991, the parades have been shelved for almost 20 years till they have been revived by President Vladimir Putin in 2008.
For the reason that begin of the full-scale struggle in 2022, the Victory Day parade has been scaled again once more. Solely a solitary Soviet-era T-34 tank symbolically rolled throughout Purple Sq. in 2024, though different sorts of autos, reminiscent of armoured personnel carriers and cellular missile launchers, have been current.
Final 12 months’s proceedings, nonetheless, packed slightly extra pomp. Not solely did the parade characteristic trendy tanks, the TOS-2 Tosochka heavy flamethrower methods and Iskander ballistic missiles, but additionally Russian troops marching alongside Chinese language troopers.
Chinese language chief Xi Jinping watched the present sitting beside Putin, considered one of 27 heads of state in attendance, together with Brazilian President Lula da Silva and Ibrahim Traore of Burkina Faso. The turnout appeared to point that, regardless of worldwide condemnation of the invasion of Ukraine, Moscow was not remoted.
‘Victory over Nazi barbarism’ or a ‘cynical distortion of historical past’
“A celebration of the Soviet and Allied defeat of Hitler’s Nazi-Fascist alliance, Victory Day is probably the most sacred date on Russia’s political calendar,” mentioned British historian Geoffrey Roberts.
“As ever, Victory Day shall be celebrated as a Soviet in addition to a Russian victory – the results of the widespread wrestle of all of the peoples of the multinational USSR, not least hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians. Victory Day is for the Russian authorities a day of multiethnic unity. It is usually a reminder of the worldwide antifascist unity – of the Soviet-Western coalition throughout World Struggle II that collectively saved the world from Nazi barbarism.”
The Jap Entrance of the second world struggle, often known as the Nice Patriotic Struggle in Russia, occupies a central place in Russian nationwide reminiscence. About 27 million Soviet residents, together with Russians, misplaced their lives within the battle, greater than some other nation, and it was the Purple Military’s troopers that hoisted their flag over the Reichstag in Berlin in 1945. The German give up was formally finalised on Could 9.
This reminiscence is evoked by Putin’s authorities in the present day, claiming it’s combating “Nazis” on the battlefields of Ukraine.
“It seems that in trendy Russia, 9 Could has been twisted to really help aggressive behaviour and militarisation,” Polishchuk mentioned.
“It’s a huge supply of pleasure which helps the notion that Russia is powerful, undefeated, and won’t tolerate disrespect from anybody. The extra widespread ‘by no means once more’ in reference to WWII grew to become ‘we are able to do it once more’ in Russia as a well-liked Victory Day slogan. This posturing turns into much more essential throughout an ongoing struggle, because it helps one other kind of actuality – one the place Russia has not made a mistake by invading Ukraine and isn’t presently failing to attain its navy goals.”
Based on the open-source intelligence undertaking Oryx, greater than 14,000 Russian tanks, APCs and different fight autos have been destroyed, captured, deserted or in any other case misplaced because the begin of the full-scale invasion in 2022.
Fashionable Ukraine considers Victory Day, as celebrated in Russia in the present day, a cynical distortion of historical past and seeks to discourage international dignitaries from attending, Polishchuk added.
“Ukraine is mostly extra level-headed than Russia in sticking to targets which have a navy goal, however that is certainly one of many cases the place the [potential] assault seems largely symbolic,” she mentioned. “Ukraine might determine to avoid wasting sources this time and never assault Moscow – it could possibly be a sane selection since air defence shall be on excessive alert and safety issues might already discourage participation, but Russian authorities haven’t any selection however to attempt to cut back the chance regardless.”
