After slowing Russia’s charge of advance over the previous a number of months, Ukraine might have tipped the scales in April and recaptured extra of its land than it misplaced, in keeping with an evaluation of battlefield positions.
The Institute for the Research of Struggle, a Washington-based suppose tank, mentioned it had noticed proof that Russian forces suffered a internet lack of 116 sq. kilometres (45 sq. miles) throughout the month.
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That determine counted solely territory firmly held by all sides, not what it referred to as “gray zones”, the place each Russian and Ukrainian troopers held positions.
“Russian forces have been utilizing infiltration ways partly to create the notion of steady Russian advances throughout the entrance and to help Kremlin cognitive warfare efforts to magnify Russian successes,” the ISW mentioned. “Russian forces, nonetheless, don’t management these infiltration areas.”
The ISW has noticed a progressive slowing of the Russian charge of advance by a minimum of two-thirds over the previous 18 months.
It discovered that Russian forces seized a median of two.9sq km (1.1sq miles) a day within the first third of 2026, in contrast with a median of 9.76sq km (3.77sq miles) in the identical interval in 2025.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has prioritised capturing the rest of Donetsk, in japanese Ukraine, which incorporates a “fortress belt” of closely fortified cities, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Konstiantynivka and Druzhkivka.
Russian assaults right here “noticeably elevated” in April, mentioned Ukrainian commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskii.
Moscow has claimed to be progressively overrunning Konstiantynivka, however the ISW noticed that it had “infiltrated in 10.14 % of Kostiantynivka and superior in solely 0.7 % of its japanese outskirts”.
Ukraine additionally mentioned Russia suffered greater casualties than its charge of recruitment may replenish for the fifth month operating.
“In April, 35,203 Russian troopers have been eradicated or severely wounded,” mentioned Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, including that Russia was “progressively drowning in losses”.
In March, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy mentioned Ukrainian intelligence had obtained Russian paperwork reporting that 62 % of casualties have been deaths – a better charge than Ukraine or anybody else had beforehand assumed.
It isn’t clear when Ukrainian forces reached that stage of lethality, nevertheless it appears to be a current improvement.
Fedorov mentioned on Could 6 that final 12 months “Russia was shedding about 14,000 troopers monthly,” which means deaths, since whole casualties averaged 34,833. That may recommend current advances in Ukrainian ways.
Zelenskyy not too long ago mentioned Ukraine aimed to double down on mid-range assaults within the Russian rear, placing provides earlier than they are often dropped at bear on the battlefield.
“In April, the variety of strikes over 20km (12 miles) was twice as excessive as in March, and 4 occasions as excessive as in February,” mentioned Fedorov.
The income struggle
Ukraine struck a number of refineries and oil amenities throughout the previous week as a part of a technique of depriving Russia of export income.
It struck the Tuapse refinery on the Black Sea for the fourth time in two weeks on Could 1, and the Perm refinery 1,000km (620 miles) inside Russia on the identical night time.
On Could 2, Ukraine used floor drones to raid two Russian oil tankers outdoors the offloading port of Novorossiysk on the Black Sea. On the identical night time, Zelenskyy mentioned the Ukraine Safety Service (SBU) struck a missile provider, a patrol boat and a tanker within the port of Primorsk within the Baltic Sea, additionally damaging the oil terminal.
On Could 5, Ukraine struck the Kirishinefteorgsintez within the Leningrad area. The Reuters information company reported that the refinery stopped operations after three of its 4 distillation towers have been broken.
Ukraine has additionally focused army gear.
Zelenskyy mentioned Flamingo drones had lined a distance of 1,500km (930 miles) to strike a producer of navigation modules for the Russian navy, air pressure and rocket forces in Cheboksary on Could 5.
Ukraine additionally not too long ago struck a number of Su-57 fighter jets and Su-34 bombers on the Shagol Airfield in Chelyabinsk, greater than 1,600km (994 miles) inside Russia.
Russia and Ukraine have given conflicting experiences on the injury to Russian oil revenues.
“By essentially the most conservative estimates, the aggressor state has misplaced a minimum of $7 bn for the reason that starting of the 12 months solely from our efficient sanctions in opposition to the Russian oil trade and refining: From hits, downtime, and delays in shipments,” Zelenskyy mentioned on Could 1.
Bloomberg reported on April 30 that common output per refinery had dropped to 4.69 million barrels a day, the bottom since 2009.
However Russia had a unique evaluation, wrote the unbiased Russian outlet Meduza. The Ministry of Finance on Could 6 mentioned mineral extraction revenues doubled to $12bn in April relative to March. Of this, $10bn was from oil, whose worth has soared throughout the US-Israel struggle on Iran.
Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov not too long ago informed a Kremlin reporter he anticipated Could oil revenues to be $2.7bn greater.
Fedorov additionally raised the alarm, saying Russia’s windfall from excessive oil costs was estimated at $150m a day, and will quantity to $40bn in 2026.
It was unclear whether or not Zelenskyy’s $7bn determine was an estimate of income deprivations over and above that windfall.
Meduza wrote that Moscow would spend half of April’s oil income subsidising oil corporations “to maintain gasoline costs low and to modernise and restore oil refineries”, suggesting Ukraine was nonetheless taking a toll.
Diplomacy triumphs
Ukraine has confronted opposition to its European Union funding and membership bid from EU members Hungary and Slovakia, however previously week, its relationship with each nations improved.
Zelenskyy mentioned on Could 2 he had invited Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico to go to Kyiv and had obtained an invite to Bratislava.
Fico had vetoed Ukrainian talks to hitch the EU in June 2025, however relented in September for causes he by no means defined.
Hungary’s former Prime Minister Viktor Orban had additionally vetoed these talks, and his successor, Peter Magyar, has not but lifted that veto, saying he’ll maintain a referendum on the matter.
Within the meantime, Magyar returned to Ukraine’s Oschadbank $82m in money and valuables Orban had seized in March on suspicion that the seven Ukrainians carrying it have been money-laundering. Zelenskyy hailed it as a “constructive and civilised step”.
However unblocking Ukraine’s accession could also be simpler mentioned than completed. A ballot by the European Council on International Relations (ECFR) discovered that 54 % of Hungarians nonetheless oppose the transfer. Majorities additionally proceed to oppose Hungary’s participation in EU monetary help to Kyiv, as they proceed to oppose the cargo of weapons to Ukraine through Hungary.
Hungarian voters “could be underestimating how essential opening Ukraine’s accession negotiations are for Hungary’s European companions”, the ECFR mentioned, “or they’re merely not linking it to Hungary normalising its relations with Brussels.”
