Projecting expertise
However by drawing on his lengthy historical past as a labour chief, Amaral mentioned Lula is looking for to underscore qualities his closest competitor can not: expertise and longevity.
Heading into October’s election, Lula faces his best problem from a 45-year-old first-term senator, Flavio Bolsonaro.
The senator earned his celebration’s nomination after getting the endorsement of his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, in December.
“It’s as if he’s saying, ‘I’m not a daddy’s boy. I’ve acquired 50 years of expertise,'” Amaral mentioned of Lula’s technique.
The rivalry between Lula and the Bolsonaro household has deep roots. Over the last presidential election, in 2022, Lula narrowly beat Jair Bolsonaro by 1.8 share factors.
It was the closest presidential election in Brazilian historical past.
The Bolsonaro household, nevertheless, has cultivated shut ties with the Trump White Home. Because of this, overseas coverage, normally peripheral to Brazilian elections, has assumed uncommon significance this yr.
Trump has injected himself into Brazilian politics all through Lula’s third time period, portray the Brazilian authorities as censoring right-wing voices.
He has additionally sought to make use of financial leverage to finish the prosecution of Jair Bolsonaro, who was convicted of plotting a coup after dropping to Lula within the 2022 presidential race.
Final yr, Trump introduced 50 p.c tariffs on a spread of Brazilian exports, as penalty for the “authorities of Brazil’s therapy of former President Bolsonaro”. He denounced the trial as “political persecution”.
However critics say Lula remodeled the tariffs right into a recognition enhance, efficiently pinning the blame on the Bolsonaro household.
A July 2025 ballot, performed after the tariffs had been introduced, confirmed his approval scores cresting above 50 p.c for the primary time in about 9 months.
These tariffs had been finally rolled again. However in June this yr, Trump unveiled new 25 p.c tariffs on sure Brazilian merchandise, citing “unfair buying and selling practices” beneath Lula.
Paz, the political science professor, believes Lula is unlikely to wring any vital profit on the poll field from these tariffs, until he can tie the additional taxes to circumstances going through the typical Brazilian client.
“For instance, if the federal government spots a particular good or service that has change into unaffordable resulting from these tariffs, it will possibly push the blame onto Trump and the Bolsonaro household,” Paz mentioned.
“That would win Lula some extra undecided voters.”
