Singapore – Of the numerous army officers darting throughout the foyer of Singapore’s Shangri-La Lodge this weekend, there was one important absence.
China’s Defence Minister Dong Jun skipped the annual Shangri-La Dialogue, Asia’s premier safety discussion board, with Beijing sending a delegation of lower-ranking representatives as a substitute.
It was the primary time since 2019 that China has not dispatched its defence minister to the high-level dialogue on regional defence, besides when the occasion was cancelled in 2020 and 2021 because of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Beijing’s determination raised eyebrows in Singapore, coming at a time of heightened tensions between China and the US – the world’s two greatest superpowers.
Dong’s absence meant there was no face-to-face assembly along with his US counterpart, Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth, who had the ground to himself on Saturday when he informed the defence discussion board that the army menace posed by China was doubtlessly imminent.
“It needs to be clear to all that Beijing is credibly making ready to doubtlessly use army drive to change the stability of energy within the Indo-Pacific,” Hegseth informed delegates in Singapore.
Pointing to China’s common army drills round Taiwan in addition to more and more frequent skirmishes within the South China Sea, Hegseth mentioned Beijing was proactively harassing its neighbours.
“There’s no purpose to sugar-coat it. The menace China poses is actual, and it could possibly be imminent,” Hegseth mentioned.
He additionally pointed to China’s growing military assertiveness as a purpose for Asian nations to spice up their defence spending, pointing to Germany, which has pledged to maneuver in direction of spending 5 p.c of its gross home product (GDP) on defence.
“It doesn’t make sense for international locations in Europe to try this whereas key allies in Asia spend much less on defence within the face of an much more formidable menace,” Hegseth mentioned.
The defence chief additionally appeared to reassure Asian allies that Washington was dedicated to Asia Pacific safety regardless of strained ties in current months as US President Donald Trump focused some shut allies with hefty commerce tariffs.
“America is proud to be again within the Indo-Pacific, and we’re right here to remain,” he mentioned, opening his speech.
Some analysts have been fast to minimize the severity of Hegseth’s warnings about China.
“Wanting a only a few international locations, not many on this a part of the world see China as an imminent menace and would up their [defence] spending,” mentioned Dylan Loh, assistant professor within the public coverage and international affairs programme at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological College.
China tight-lipped on defence chief’s absence
In earlier years, the Shangri-La Dialogue had offered a uncommon platform for conferences between Chinese language and US officers within the extra casual environment that the summit might provide.
The construction of the schedule additionally allowed Beijing’s army chiefs to straight reply to the keynote speech from the US defence secretary and to current their narrative to different members of the Asia Pacific.
Beijing has remained tight-lipped on the rationale for Defence Minister Dong’s absence from the discussion board, fuelling an info void that has been crammed by hypothesis.
One idea is that China didn’t wish to ship a high-profile delegate to the occasion at such a delicate time as Beijing navigates the tariff war with the Trump administration.
“Any form of fake pas or feedback that will go off script may be picked up and picked aside or misconstrued,” mentioned Loh, of Singapore’s Nanyang Technological College.
“So the query is why take the chance when US-China relations are at a really delicate level at this second,” Loh informed Al Jazeera.
The Shangri-La Dialogue weekend has not at all times been the simplest event for Chinese language defence ministers. In recent times, they’ve confronted tough questions from their counterparts in different international locations, who’re sad with Beijing’s growing assertiveness within the Asia Pacific area.
Loh mentioned this could possibly be one other think about Dong’s absence from the high-profile occasion.
“Any Chinese language defence minister coming to Singapore now shall be exposing himself and the nation to political danger,” he mentioned. “Themes just like the South China Sea and presumably Taiwan will emerge, which makes China a handy goal,” Loh added.
Dong was appointed as China’s defence minister in late 2023, after his predecessor, Li Shangfu, was faraway from workplace.
Lower than a 12 months into the job, there was hypothesis surrounding Dong’s new place following media stories that he was below investigation as a part of a wider investigation into corruption within the Chinese language army. Beijing denied the stories, with the minister persevering with to take care of a public profile regardless of the allegations.
There has additionally been intense scrutiny of China’s army, following stories of an obvious purge of top-level officers by President Xi Jinping.
One among Beijing’s most senior generals, He Weidong, was lacking from a high-profile political assembly in April, including to rumours surrounding a potential restructuring within the Folks’s Liberation Military (PLA).
Ian Chong, a nonresident scholar on the Carnegie China analysis centre, mentioned such hypothesis could possibly be a think about Dong’s no-show in Singapore.
“Due to the home turmoil with China’s senior army, they maybe don’t wish to, or the PLA itself feels that it’s not able to ship any person senior,” Chong informed Al Jazeera.
Asserting Dong’s absence at a information convention earlier than the summit, Chinese language army spokesperson Senior Colonel Zhang Xiaogang maintained that communication channels have been nonetheless open between defence officers in Washington and Beijing.
“China locations nice significance on US-China army ties, and is open to communication at totally different ranges,” Zhang mentioned.
