President Donald Trump’s administration dished out a chilly burn to Trump’s ice-cream-loving predecessor, Joe Biden, saying he led the US ice cream business down an financial rocky highway.
“America had a commerce surplus in ice cream in 2020 beneath President Trump’s management, however that surplus changed into a commerce deficit of $40.6 million beneath President Biden’s watch,” the Workplace of the US Commerce Consultant wrote July 20 on X. The publish included a chart that reveals the US ice cream commerce deficit with Japan, South Africa, the European Union, Brazil, Canada and Turkiye.
The US ice cream commerce steadiness did change dramatically in 2021, the yr Biden took workplace. The commerce steadiness formally flipped detrimental – which suggests imports outnumber exports – in 2022 and has remained so since then.
However business specialists warning that US ice cream imports account for a minuscule fraction of all of the US ice cream consumed within the US, and exports account for a tiny fraction of all US ice cream produced.
The commerce change was pushed principally by a bounce in imports. Exports have remained largely unchanged since 2020.
And the cherry on prime? Disagreement over which merchandise to categorise as “ice cream” additionally impacts information, specialists say. For instance, the info referenced by the workplace of the US Commerce Consultant additionally contains “edible ice”, which some specialists (and dairy defenders) say doesn’t qualify as ice cream.
Eradicating edible ice reveals that “the US is a internet exporter by a major margin of ($193 million) or +85% bigger by worth,” Worldwide Dairy Meals Affiliation Government Vice President Matt Herrick instructed PolitiFact by way of e-mail.
Ice cream imports enhance causes US commerce deficit
From 1995 to 2020, the US had an ice cream commerce surplus, starting from about $20m to about $160m, in accordance with the Observatory of Financial Complexity, a web-based financial information platform. Longtime clients embody Mexico, adopted by Saudi Arabia and Canada.
In 2021, that surplus almost vanished, and in 2022 and 2023, the US notched up an ice cream commerce deficit of $92m and $33m, respectively.
At first look, importing frozen meals doesn’t appear sensible.
“Delivery refrigerated and frozen merchandise abroad is pricey,” dairy economist Betty Berningat of HighGround Dairy mentioned. “Mexico is the highest vacation spot for US dairy exports.”
However many US and European corporations have tapped into international markets.
“Shoppers might also need a particular deal with that’s styled after or recognized to be from one other nation,” Herrick mentioned.
Italy, the birthplace of gelato, is now the USA’ largest single supply of imported ice cream. Italian ice cream imports greater than quintupled from about $12m to nearly $65m between 2020 and 2021 alone, earlier than lowering considerably in 2023, the final yr for which information is offered.
A few of this stems from elevated client demand for specialty pints. A report by Mordor Intelligence, a worldwide market analysis agency, mentioned “product innovation and premiumisation” have develop into key within the US ice cream business.
“This pattern is especially evident within the development of premium pint choices and individually wrapped novelties that cater to each indulgence and portion management preferences,” the report mentioned.
The US produces much more ice cream than it imports or exports
To get to the pint: The overwhelming majority of ice cream consumed in the USA is made there, not abroad.
The Trump administration is cherry-picking stats from a fraction of a sliver of the US ice cream business.
In line with US Agriculture Division information, US ice cream makers churned out 1.31 billion gallons of ice cream in 2024. This contains common ice cream, low-fat and nonfat ice cream, sherbet and frozen yoghurt.
By comparability, the US imported 2.35 million gallons of conventional ice cream in 2024 – that’s 0.18 % of the quantity produced domestically, Herrick mentioned.
The US exported 16.4 million gallons of that home manufacturing, which can be a tiny fraction of 1.31 billion gallons of ice cream – just a little greater than 1 %.
Factoring in ice cream mixes, excluding ‘edible ice’ merchandise
One other caveat concerning the worldwide commerce information: It doesn’t embody “mixes”, which skews the totals, mentioned Herrick of the Worldwide Dairy Meals Affiliation.
Mixes are used to make ice cream shakes and soft-serve merchandise, they usually account for a good portion of US ice cream exports. “Inclusion of such information factors would change the image fairly considerably,” mentioned Herrick. “Whereas it’s true that conventional ice cream and edible ice exports have seen decreased exports, the identical can’t be mentioned for exports of mixes.”
US milk-based drink exports elevated 621 % over the previous 5 years, he mentioned. In 2024, the US exported almost $35m in mixes to the European Union.
Individuals and dairy-based ice cream: A centuries-old love affair melting away?
The White Home has churned out loads of ice cream devotees.
George Washington stocked the capital with ice cream-making gear. Thomas Jefferson is credited as being the primary American to document an ice cream recipe. Ronald Reagan declared July Nationwide Ice Cream Month in 1984. Barack Obama even slung scoops again within the day.
Biden, who was typically sighted with a cone in hand, proclaimed whereas visiting Jeni’s Splendid Ice Cream headquarters in 2016: “My title is Joe Biden, and I really like ice cream.”
However consumption of normal dairy ice cream – a class that doesn’t embody frozen yoghurt, sherbet or nonfat and low-fat ice lotions – has been trending down for years.
In 1975, Individuals ate a mean of 18.2 kilos every of ice cream per yr. That determine fell to 11.7 kilos by 2023.
Our ruling
The workplace of the US Commerce Consultant purported a summertime scoop: “America had a commerce surplus in ice cream in 2020 beneath President Trump’s management, however that surplus changed into a commerce deficit of $40.6 million beneath President Biden’s watch.”
It’s correct that the US ice cream commerce steadiness had a surplus for 1 / 4 of a century earlier than turning detrimental whereas Biden was president.
However the US Commerce Consultant’s assertion makes the US ice cream deficit seem out of cone-trol.
There are three scoops of context on this commerce sundae:
The change was pushed principally by a bounce in imports. Exports have remained largely unchanged since 2020.
US ice cream imports and exports are a negligible quantity in comparison with home manufacturing.
There’s additionally disagreement over which merchandise ought to or shouldn’t be included within the information set, which might skew pattern interpretations. Excluding edible ice merchandise and factoring in ice cream mixes leaves the US with a surplus.
The assertion is correct however wants a sprinkling of clarification and extra particulars, so we fee it Principally True.
Louis Jacobson contributed to this report.
