WR Jayden Reed (ADP: WR44)
There’s a probability Reed’s ADP turns into extra bearish resulting from studies of him persevering with to take a seat out 2WR units, however that’s at all times been his function, and he’s produced back-to-back top-30 seasons to start out his profession. Whereas I’m excessive on Matthew Golden, I believe Reed advantages from Golden’s arrival as a result of Golden (plus a wholesome Jordan Love) ought to restore Matt LaFleur confidence in dialing up extra passing performs after Love dipped from 34.2 makes an attempt per sport in 2023 to twenty-eight.3 final season. Love quietly posted top-five marks in yards per try (8.0) and QBR (69.3) final season, so I’m not anticipating LaFleur to have any hang-ups in regard to passing quantity this season.
After posting top-25 finishes in 9 of 16 (56.3%) video games as a rookie on 5.9 targets per sport, Reed noticed his receiving quantity dip together with the remainder of the group, posting a top-25 end in solely 6 of 17 video games on 4.4 targets per sport. Nonetheless, a big chunk of Reed’s underperformance got here in two video games Love missed and two others wherein he was knocked out early. In Jordan Love’s 13 wholesome begins, Reed completed as a top-25 WR at a 46.2% clip, a top-36 WR at a 61.5% clip, and a top-41 WR at a 76.9% clip on a modest 4.8 targets per sport.
Reed’s stellar underlying metrics in every of his first two seasons – 2.05 yards per route run (twenty second amongst WRs) in 2023, 2.20 (seventeenth) in 2024 – coupled with a probable enhance in passing quantity for one of the vital environment friendly passers within the league make Reed a high-upside, low-risk proposition at ADP, no matter whether or not or not Golden breaks out in Yr 1.
WR Matthew Golden (ADP: WR46)
Golden’s ADP will possible creep up as studies have come out of camp that Golden began alongside Romeo Doubs in 2WR units. In that setup, Golden can be the favourite for targets, as rookie first-round WRs have averaged 19.8% targets per route over the previous 10 seasons, which eclipses the profession charges of Doubs (19.2%), RB Josh Jacobs (18.9%), TE Tucker Kraft (14.0%), and TE Luke Musgrave (14.0%). When the Packers go three-wide, Golden would nonetheless be one of the best wager to be the No. 2 goal behind Jayden Reed (21.3%).
The Packers by no means appeared intent on making D’Ontavion Wicks something greater than a rotational WR4 when Christian Watson was wholesome, however as per common, Watson (ACL) shouldn’t be wholesome, and Golden is a participant they deemed value extra draft capital than Watson and each different WR on their roster. Golden was initially regarded as in a crowded WR depth chart, but when he continues to run as a starter in 2 WR units, he’d possible be the favourite to edge Reed for the group lead in targets total.
Jordan Love completed fifth in YPA (8.0) and sixth in TD fee (5.9%) in an injury-marred season and sits at 7.5 YPA and a 5.5% TD fee for his profession. He should not have his whole WR corps going exterior the highest 40. Golden’s ADP is extra prone to overcorrect if he breaks a giant play in preseason, however I might nonetheless need him wherever I can get him as my WR4.
TE Colston Loveland (ADP: TE13)
Loveland’s ADP grew to become depressed with information of him present process offseason shoulder surgical procedure in January, however he was cleared simply earlier than camp.
Provided that Loveland was drafted over Tyler Warren, it’s clear that new head coach Ben Johnson was seeking a full-time tight finish. When the Lions drafted Sam LaPorta thirty fourth total in 2023, Johnson utilized him on 83% of offensive snaps in Yr 1, and he went on to submit a then-rookie-record 86 receptions for 889 yards and 10 TDs.
The truth that Johnson spent the tenth total decide on Loveland with Cole Kmet already on the roster alerts that Kmet is seen as nothing greater than Johnson’s model of Brock Wright, and that there most likely was one thing to Caleb Williams hitting the mute button on Kmet to the tune of simply eight of 195 routes over the ultimate six weeks of the season. Kmet is probably going a much bigger menace to fellow rookie Luther Burden III at slot receiver within the type of extra 2TE units.
Loveland has top-three total upside as a rookie. Given the query marks within the ba
