President Trump introduced a 25% on India starting August 1 because of its continued buy of Russian oil. “Keep in mind, whereas India is our pal, we’ve got, over time, accomplished comparatively little enterprise with them as a result of their Tariffs are far too excessive, among the many highest within the World, they usually have probably the most strenuous and obnoxious non-monetary Commerce Limitations of any Nation,” the president posted to Fact on Wednesday morning. “Additionally, they’ve all the time purchased a overwhelming majority of their army gear from Russia, and are Russia’s largest purchaser of ENERGY, together with China, at a time when everybody desires Russia to STOP THE KILLING IN UKRAINE,” he added.
India started drastically rising its imports of Russian crude in the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine battle in 2022, with good cause, because the oil grew to become considerably cheaper and India was in a position to resell it at a premium to nations that merely wished to bypass all issues Russia. In January 2022, India was importing round 68,000 barrels per day (bpd) in Russian crude, which represented solely 0.2% of crude imports. The battle broke out a month later and by June India was importing 1.12 million bpd from Russia who overtook Iraq because the nation’s prime provider. Almost a 12 months later in Could 2023, Russian imports peaked at 2.15 million bpd, with India at the moment importing round 1.7 million to 2.1 million bpd as of July 2025.
Round 35% to 40% of India’s crude oil now comes from Russia. Now, Russian crude was round $50 per barrel in Could 2025 when imports to India peaked. Center Japanese grades have been round $10 to $20 increased on the time. The deal was a no brainer.
India-US bilateral commerce hit $118.4 billion in 2024. India exported roughly $79.4 billion in items to the US and imported $39 billion. The present commerce deficit with the US sits at $45.7 billion. A 25% tariff may price India billions in misplaced income from exports and threaten jobs in key sectors resembling autos, chemical substances, jewellery, gems, electronics, and textiles. Different Asian exporters would change into extra fascinating, however China really purchases extra Russian crude than India at this level and different nations within the area have drastically smaller economies. Estimates state India may danger shedding $15 billion to $20 billion yearly because of the 25% tariff.
Now, if India have been compelled to purchase from the Center East for $10 to $20 extra per barrel, the nation would want to spend round $6 to $10 billion extra on vitality yearly. India does refine and resells Russian crude and is claimed to usher in round $1.5 billion to $3.5 billion from that apply.
On paper, it could appear as if India has extra to lose by persevering with to buy Russian oil. Nonetheless, the US is displaying the world that it has the power to dictate political coverage by financial warfare. India declared that it stays dedicated to persevering with “mutually helpful bilateral commerce” with the US after the 25% tariff was introduced. The US will go in any case BRICS nations in an try and dismantle the alliance, however BRICS members have proven that they not must depend on the West, and tariffs from the US could not maintain the identical leverage as they as soon as did.
