There’s a purpose for the fearsome redistricting fight raging throughout America. It’s about Democrats attempting to rein in Donald Trump and his rogue-elephant regime.
Or, when you’re the country’s aspiring strongman, it’s about avoiding accountability and sanction.
That’s why Trump and fellow Republicans are attempting to rig the midterm election, by gerrymandering congressional lines in hopes of boosting the GOP’s probabilities of keeping its tenuous hold on the House previous 2026.
California Democrats are seeking payback by redrawing the state’s congressional lines in hopes of swiping five or more GOP-held seats. Voters may have their say on the matter Nov. 4, when they decide Proposition 50.
In fact, there are two branches of Congress. Why, then, is there a lot concentrate on the Home? Merely put, it’s due to the steep odds Democrats face attempting to win management of the Senate, that are someplace between slim and none — with slim final seen cinching his saddle earlier than cantering out of city.
Let’s take a second for a fast refresher.
Each two years, all 435 Home seats are on the poll. Senate phrases are staggered and run six years, so roughly a 3rd of the chamber’s 100 seats are up for a vote in every federal election. In 2026, there will be 35 Senate contests.
Most gained’t be remotely aggressive.
The truth is, greater than two dozen of these races are successfully over earlier than they start, given the benefit one occasion holds over the opposite. Mississippi, as an example, will ship a Democrat to the U.S. Senate the day that Delaware elects a Republican; each will happen proper after Trump and Adam Schiff get inked with matching “I Love L.A.” tattoos.
That leaves 9 Senate races which might be at the very least considerably aggressive. Of these, three are thought of toss-ups: open-seat contests in Michigan and North Carolina and the race in Georgia, the place Democrat Jon Ossoff is searching for a second time period.
Democrats want to realize 4 seats to take management of the Senate, that means even when they win all three of these even-steven races — which is way from sure — they nonetheless must efficiently defend seats in Minnesota and New Hampshire and decide up at the very least one different GOP-held seat.
That’s the place the going will get powerful.
Kamala Harris gained Maine, which suggests Republican Susan Collins may very well be susceptible. However the five-term senator has repeatedly managed to hold on, even in good Democratic years.
The three different races are harder nonetheless.
Ohio was once a major Midwestern battleground, however it’s grown solidly Republican. Democrats landed their prized recruit, former Sen. Sherrod Brown, who narrowly misplaced his 2024 reelection bid and could be the solely Democrat with a practical shot on the seat. Nonetheless, he’s dealing with an uphill struggle within the particular election towards Republican Jon Husted, an ex-lieutenant governor who was appointed to switch Vice President JD Vance.
In Iowa, the place Republican Joni Ernst is retiring, GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson begins out the favourite in one other state that’s grown more and more pink. (Hinson, a USC grad and former KABC-TV intern, has taken to trash-talking the Golden State — “I don’t wish to see the nation appear like California” — as a result of that’s what Republicans do these days.)
Which leaves Texas, land of shattered Democratic desires.
It’s been greater than three a long time because the occasion has gained a statewide election. Ever since, Democrats have insisted this is the yr they’d finish their dropping streak.
They’ve tried varied approaches. A “dream team” that consisted of a slate of Black, white and Latino nominees. A ticket topped by political celebrity Wendy Davis, of filibuster fame. An out-of-nowhere phenom by the title of Beto O’Rourke. All failed.
This time, Democrats are hoping for an help from the GOP.
Republican Sen. John Cornyn is searching for his fifth time period and faces the state’s legal professional normal, Ken Paxton, in a major that’s already grown fierce and ugly.
Paxton is MAGA all the way down to the soles of his toes, which might usually give him a giant benefit in a GOP major. However his historical past — allegations of bribery and corruption, an impeachment trial, a messy divorce — have left him in unhealthy odor with many Republicans.
The GOP’s Senate marketing campaign committee and Majority Chief John Thune have aggressively thrown their weight behind Cornyn, although Trump has to date remained impartial.
Democrats would like to run towards Paxton, given polls suggesting a aggressive race if he’s the nominee. First, although, they’ll need to kind out their very own major.
Colin Allred, the former NFL linebacker who misplaced in November to Ted Cruz, is operating once more and faces James Talarico, a state consultant and seminarian from the Austin space, who’s grew to become a web-based sensation together with his godly persona and viral take-down of conservative pieties. O’Rourke additionally hasn’t dominated out one other strive for Senate.
Garry Mauro, a Democrat and former Texas land commissioner, is clear-eyed in assessing his occasion’s prospects.
“In the event you run on the appropriate points and don’t depart your self a loopy radical … then I believe you’ve gotten an actual probability of constructing a profitable race,” he mentioned. However “to say this isn’t a leaning-R state could be Pollyannish, and I’m not Pollyannish.”
Which suggests relying on the Lone Star state to ship a Democratic-run U.S. Senate is a bit like trusting a drunken gambler to protect and defend your lease cash.
That’s why Democrats are betting the Home in hopes of corralling Trump.
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