Voters in Eire will head to the polls on Friday to elect a brand new president for a seven-year time period.
Whereas the Irish presidency is a principally ceremonial function, this election takes place amid a historic shift in direction of a extra polarised political system, Barry Colfer, director of analysis at Dublin’s Institute of Worldwide and European Affairs, informed Al Jazeera.
Because the institution of the Irish Free State in December 1922 and the next finish of the Irish Civil Warfare in Might 1923, Irish politics, not like in different European international locations, haven’t been drawn alongside left-right traces, he stated. “What we’re seeing in the present day for the primary time in Irish historical past is a presidential election between objectively left-wing and right-wing candidates.”
This transformation has develop into extra obvious lately. Within the 2020 normal election, left-wing nationalist get together Sinn Fein – the previous political wing of the Irish Republican Military – received essentially the most first-preference votes for the primary time for the reason that nation’s founding, bringing an finish to the normal two-party dominance of the centre-right events Fianna Fail (FF) and Effective Gael (FG). By the tip of the voting course of, Sinn Fein had 37 seats, ending near neck-and-neck with FF at 38 and FG at 35.
There are 174 seats in Dail Eireann (Irish for Eire’s decrease home of parliament) in complete, with 88 wanted to type a authorities.
The 2 beforehand dominant events’ origins date again to the Irish Civil Warfare and its aftermath, with FG’s forerunner supporting the Anglo-Irish Treaty, which granted the nation partial independence, and FF opposing it.
For the primary time of their historical past, FF and FG had been compelled to enter into a proper coalition authorities with the Inexperienced Occasion in 2020 to have the ability to type a authorities. Following the 2024 election, they partnered with independents as a substitute of the Greens.
Who serves as president of Eire, and what do they do?
The presidency has a comparatively restricted political function, corresponding to that of monarchs in different international locations, stated Gail McElroy, a professor of political science at Trinity School Dublin. It’s “seen as a unifying function past politics”.
The president represents Eire overseas and hosts visiting heads of state and different dignitaries on the official presidential residence, Aras an Uachtarain, in Dublin’s Phoenix Park.
The president is, above all, liable for guaranteeing that the Irish Structure is adopted.
After the presidency was established in 1938, one yr after the present Bunreacht na hEireann (Irish structure) was adopted, it was typically held by a statesman with an extended affiliation to one of many two most important political events. As an example, Eamon de Valera, one of many main political figures throughout Eire’s Warfare for Independence and founding father of FF, served as taoiseach (prime minister) from 1937 to 1948, 1951 to 1954 and from 1957 to 1959, after which because the nation’s third president from 1959 to 1973.
The election of Mary Robinson, Eire’s first feminine president, in 1990 “marked a watershed second”, McElroy informed Al Jazeera.
The election of Robinson, who had been nominated by the Labour Occasion and the Staff’ Occasion, and likewise acquired official assist from the Inexperienced Occasion, remodeled the presidency from a largely symbolic, conservative workplace into one with extra important diplomatic affect. Her presidential marketing campaign had included a dedication to increase the function of the president right into a extra lively one targeted on social points and to foster a picture of a “new Eire”.
Earlier than turning into president, she had served as a senator in Seanad Eireann (Irish senate) from 1969 to 1989, and been a member of the Dublin Metropolis Council from 1979 to 1983.
Throughout her time in workplace, she signed two important payments that she had fought for all through her political profession: a 1992 invoice to totally liberalise the legislation on the supply of contraceptives, and a 1993 invoice totally decriminalising homosexuality. She additionally signed the legalisation of divorce into legislation in 1996.
As president, Robinson additionally took important steps to foster an environment of reconciliation between Eire and the UK. She made historical past by being the primary Irish president to satisfy a British monarch, then Queen Elizabeth II, in an official capability. She additionally controversially met and shook fingers with Gerry Adams, then the chief of Sinn Fein, a big transfer in direction of dialogue at a vital time within the Northern Eire peace course of.
And eventually, Robinson used her presidential platform to advocate for human rights worldwide, notably turning into the primary head of state to go to Somalia in 1992 following the civil warfare and famine, drawing worldwide consideration to the nation’s humanitarian disaster.
Mary McAleese, the primary particular person born in Northern Eire to function president, held the workplace from 1997 to 2011 – like Robinson, throughout pivotal years for the Northern Eire peace course of that culminated within the 1998 Good Friday Agreement ending the three-decade battle that had begun within the late Nineteen Sixties in Northern Eire, often known as The Troubles. Her emphasis on reconciliation culminated in a historic state go to to Eire by Queen Elizabeth II.
Michael D Higgins, president since 2011, has stretched the conventions of his workplace with, at instances, sturdy criticism of presidency coverage on each home and international coverage points, significantly concerning the nation’s housing disaster and longstanding coverage of army neutrality.
Higgins has additionally been a vocal supporter of the Palestinian trigger, according to the overwhelming majority of the Irish public, and has been unequivocal in calling for a everlasting ceasefire for the reason that begin of Israel’s warfare on Gaza.
The Irish authorities has been one of the crucial vital voices of Israel inside the European Union, supporting South Africa’s genocide case on the Worldwide Court docket of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague.
Higgins has described Israel’s warfare on Gaza because the “unbelievable destruction of a complete folks” and echoed the Irish authorities in calling it a breach of worldwide legislation.
At instances, Higgins has made statements and proposed actions that transcend the realm of formal authorities coverage. He stated accusations of anti-Semitism towards those that criticise the insurance policies of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu quantity to “slander towards Eire”, and has even advised that Israel and the international locations that provide it with weapons ought to be excluded from the United Nations.
Who can stand for the presidency and who can vote?
Any Irish citizen aged 35 or above can search nomination for the presidency by following one in all three routes.
One method to be nominated is thru being endorsed by 20 members of the Oireachtas (parliament). There are 174 members of the Dail and one other 60 senators within the Seanad. Alternatively, a presidential hopeful will be nominated by 4 out of Eire’s 31 native authorities.
A sitting president can also nominate themselves to run for a second and closing time period, with out the assist of members of the Oireachtas or native authorities. In current historical past, each McAleese and Higgins nominated themselves for second phrases.
Solely Irish residents who’re a minimum of 18 years previous can vote for the president. About 3.5 million folks within the nation are eligible. Official voter turnout is mostly low for presidential elections in Eire, with the final one in 2018 at simply 43.9 p.c.
Who’s standing within the upcoming election?
Formally, there are three presidential candidates: Catherine Connolly, Heather Humphreys and Jim Gavin, who withdrew from the presidential race earlier this month – however after a deadline for doing so had handed, that means that votes for him can nonetheless be counted.
Whichever candidate is elected could have massive footwear to fill, as Higgins, whose second time period ends in November, is considered one in all Eire’s hottest politicians.
Whereas pollsters at present have Connolly because the favorite for the race, greater than 35 p.c of respondents have indicated in polls that they may both spoil their vote or not vote in any respect.
Catherine Connolly
Connolly, 68, an impartial, is backed by a coalition of left-wing events, together with Sinn Fein, the Inexperienced Occasion and the Social Democrats, amongst others, and several other impartial Oireachtas members.
Connolly started her political profession in 1999, when she was elected to the Galway Metropolis Council as a Labour candidate after which served as mayor of Galway, within the western a part of the nation, from 2004 to 2005. She left the Labour Occasion in 2007 as a consequence of a dispute over candidate choice for the overall election, main her to run as an impartial candidate.
She has been serving because the TD (Teachta Dala; member of the Dail) for Galway West since 2016. Connolly has additionally labored as a barrister and medical psychologist.
Connolly could be anticipated to proceed Higgins’s legacy of criticising the federal government, “and possibly go even additional than Higgins”, on condition that she has at all times been in opposition, each when she was a member of the Labour Occasion and as an impartial, stated Colfer.
Connolly has stated she is operating to make use of the presidency as an lively ethical and moral voice for the nation, with a powerful give attention to addressing the housing and homelessness disaster and supporting essentially the most weak, together with folks with disabilities. Her platform additionally contains selling the Irish language and supporting a imaginative and prescient for a united – and extra equal – Eire. And lastly, she is campaigning on defending Irish neutrality as an lively custom of peace-making and advocates for human rights on the worldwide stage, together with sturdy assist for the Palestinian folks.
Concerning Israel’s warfare on Gaza, she has stated: “Israel have dedicated genocide in Gaza. The normalisation of genocide is catastrophic for the Palestinian folks, and it’s catastrophic for humanity. Historical past didn’t start on October 7. I’ll stand in solidarity with the Palestinian folks so long as I’ve breath in my physique.”
Opinion polls performed in the course of the presidential marketing campaign point out that younger folks overwhelmingly assist Connolly, together with these aligned with the left-wing and impartial political events backing her presidential bid.
Connolly is the favorite to win the presidency, with the most recent ballot performed by Irish broadcaster RTE placing her assist at 38 p.c.
Heather Humphreys
Humphreys, 62, the candidate for FG, is an skilled cupboard member, having held a variety of portfolios, together with justice and rural improvement, from 2014 to early 2025.
She additionally served as a TD for the Cavan-Monaghan constituency, on the border with Northern Eire, and because the FG’s deputy chief.
Given Humphreys’s political background, she could be more likely to not problem authorities orthodoxy, thus returning the workplace to a extra ceremonial one, stated Colfer.
Her marketing campaign is centred on celebrating native volunteerism and lengthening the presidency’s attain throughout the nation. A key side of her marketing campaign can also be her background as a Presbyterian from Monaghan. She has pledged to make use of this identification to construct bridges between nationalist and unionist communities in Northern Eire and promote reconciliation throughout the island, framing herself as a unifying candidate. Humphreys has additionally strongly advocated for the event and renewal of rural Eire and assist for Irish companies internationally. Lastly, she has pledged to assist essentially the most weak, comparable to promising elevated pension/incapacity funds.
Humphreys is predicted to win 20 p.c of the vote.
Jim Gavin
Gavin, 54, was the candidate for FF, which is the most important get together in parliament and is led by the prime minister, Micheal Martin. He’s a former Gaelic soccer crew supervisor who additionally served for 20 years within the Irish defence forces. Gavin is at present working because the chief operations officer for the Irish Aviation Authority.
Gavin introduced his withdrawal from the race on October 5 following allegations within the Irish Unbiased newspaper that he owed 3,300 euros ($3,850) to a former tenant. His identify nonetheless seems on the poll, nevertheless, as he withdrew after the deadline for doing so had handed. “This implies he’s nonetheless a sound candidate,” in response to the Irish Examiner newspaper. “Any votes solid for him might be counted as regular, that means he might nonetheless win and develop into Eire’s tenth president.”
Ever since Gavin withdrew his bid, he has now not appeared in presidential debates held on Irish media shops, narrowing the presidential contest to a two-horse race.
Gavin is at present predicted to safe simply 5 p.c of the vote.
If Gavin received the election, “he would presumably decline the function and due to this fact set off a contemporary election”, which would want to happen inside 60 days, in response to Irish on-line newspaper The Journal.
How does voting work?
Eire makes use of an electoral system of proportional illustration often known as the Single Transferable Vote.
On this system, a voter ranks candidates so as of choice by marking the numbers 1, 2, 3 (within the case of this presidential election) on their poll. The voter is free to vote for only one or all three of the candidates.
Earlier than the official counting can happen, ballots are sorted so as of first-preference votes. Any spoiled votes are positioned to 1 aspect, as they won’t be counted.
If nobody secures an absolute majority of first-preference votes, the candidate with the fewest votes is eradicated and their votes are transferred to the subsequent choice marked by every voter.
This elimination and switch course of continues till one candidate secures greater than 50 p.c of the votes.
As Gavin’s identify stays on the poll, “it’s attainable that his transfers might but be essential in deciding who would be the subsequent president of Eire”, in response to the Irish Occasions newspaper.
The election will happen on October 24, with the end result anticipated the next day. The brand new president might be inaugurated at a ceremony in Dublin Fort.
What are the important thing points on this election?
Various political points have emerged throughout the latest presidential debates as each the main candidates have parliamentary observe information on points necessary to voters, stated Colfer.
Housing disaster
On the 2020 and 2024 normal elections, housing was a defining electoral difficulty for voters. The nation’s housing disaster peaked in 2013, as a extreme provide scarcity mixed with a rising inhabitants resulted in a speedy escalation in lease and home costs, resulting in document ranges of homelessness and emigration, in addition to widespread unaffordability.
Higgins has mirrored public anger with the federal government over this difficulty, condemning the housing disaster as “our nice, nice, nice failure”, saying that it might now not be thought of a disaster however “a catastrophe”.
It has been tough for Humphreys to appease voters when responding to questions on this matter, on condition that she has been serving in authorities throughout this time, stated Colfer.
Triple lock mechanism and Irish neutrality
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Eire has been reckoning with its policy of military neutrality, which was adopted on the outbreak of World Warfare II, dubbed “The Emergency”, and has since been maintained by successive governments.
Whereas this coverage, in addition to a legislative mechanism often known as the triple lock, will not be “essentially associated”, some say that reforming the mechanism, because the Irish authorities has dedicated to do, “dangers undermining the coverage [of neutrality] and is a slippery slope in direction of abandoning it”, stated Colfer.
Whereas opinion polls have repeatedly indicated that almost all of Irish folks need to keep the nation’s coverage of army neutrality, the discourse round different points historically related to the coverage, together with defence spending and the triple lock, is “extra refined now”, he stated.
“There may be an understanding now that each extra defence spending and changing the triple lock doesn’t essentially compromise or undermine neutrality.”
An Irish Occasions ballot performed earlier this yr discovered that 63 p.c of voters assist the nation’s present mannequin of neutrality, whereas 47 p.c assist sustaining the triple lock.
A separate Irish Occasions ballot performed in June 2023 discovered that 55 p.c of voters supported “considerably rising Eire’s army capability” to defend its airspace and territorial waters.
Below the triple lock, not more than 12 army personnel will be deployed to take part in abroad peacekeeping operations with out the approval of all three of the Irish authorities, the Dail and the UN.
The Irish authorities’s most important argument for reforming the mechanism is to forestall a everlasting member of the UN Safety Council, like Russia or China, from having a de facto vote on Eire’s participation in worldwide peacekeeping missions due to the UN a part of the triple lock. No new peacekeeping mandate has been authorised by the council since 2014.
Higgins has accused the federal government of “taking part in with hearth” by holding public discussions that he believes are making a harmful “drift” away from Eire’s coverage of army neutrality and that dangers “burying” Eire in different folks’s agendas.
He has additionally criticised elevated army spending as “surprising”, warning that it perpetuates “warfare as a frame of mind” on the expense of investing in important areas comparable to schooling and healthcare.
Whereas the Irish authorities introduced in July 2022 the most important enhance in defence spending within the nation’s historical past, leaping from 1.1 billion euros ($1.3bn) to 1.5 billion euros ($1.7bn) by 2028, Eire continues to have one of many lowest defence budgets in Europe.
The federal government argues that reforming the triple lock wouldn’t change the coverage of army neutrality, which it defines as “non-membership of army alliances or mutual defence preparations”.
Over the course of the presidential marketing campaign, Connolly has positioned herself as a powerful defender of Eire’s longstanding coverage of army neutrality and the triple lock mechanism.
“I consider in neutrality as an lively, residing custom of peacemaking, bridge-building, and compassionate diplomacy. The triple lock is core to our neutrality. It’s one in all Eire’s best strengths, and I’ll defend it and the triple lock with dedication.”
Connolly has additionally said that she is against any transfer that will lead the nation to develop into concerned in “harmful NATO or EU militarisation”.
Humphreys, nevertheless, has burdened that whereas she helps a evaluation of the triple lock, she isn’t proposing abandoning Eire’s coverage of army neutrality.
Concerning the triple lock, she has stated: “No different nation ought to have a veto over the place members of the Irish defence forces serve.”
Humphreys has framed herself as a candidate who would keep sturdy relationships with European companions and allies and has warned towards Connolly’s strategy, which she says might be seen as “insulting Eire’s allies” like Germany, France, the USA and the UK.
Irish reunification
Since Brexit, Britain’s departure from the EU in January 2020, the subject of Irish reunification has been far more within the public realm than it was even 10 years in the past, stated Colfer.
Each most important candidates have said that they’re proud Republicans and specific assist for Irish reunification.
Whereas Connolly could seem to have the plain benefit with the official assist of Sinn Fein, Colfer argues that Humphreys may very well have the higher hand as a consequence of her private connection to Northern Eire.
Along with her non secular background and upbringing, Humphreys has a connection to the Orange Order, a conservative Protestant fraternal society related to British unionism, via her father and husband, who’re each former members. Her grandfather signed the Ulster Covenant in 1912, a petition towards Irish self-government.
These hyperlinks to a longstanding Protestant organisation “will assist open up a line of communication with Unionists” for Humphreys, seen as necessary in bridge-building between Northern Eire’s Catholic and Protestant communities forward of a reunification referendum, stated Colfer.
