QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I’m new to your website. I’ve a query. I perceive you’re a dealer, not a tutorial. That’s the solely motive I do learn you. Why are teachers incapable of ever forecasting the economic system?
DL
Larry Summers Opinion _ Preparing for the next recession – The Washington Post
ANSWER: In the event you simply hearken to the interview of Larry Summers on forecasting, you will notice that they don’t imagine you may forecast something as a result of it’s complicated like climate. In case your forecast comes true, it’s only due to affect – not some mannequin forecast. That is why they’ve hated me a lot. They refuse to simply accept that there may even be a mannequin or cyclical evaluation.
