The Trump administration is now figuring out what the longer term holds for Ukraine, and by extension for Europe, in issues of territorial integrity, sovereignty and safety. Washington goals to make a deal to finish the full-scale warfare Russia launched in February 2022 that Russian President Vladimir Putin has waged in opposition to Ukraine, even when it means abandoning longstanding worldwide ideas that prohibit the popularity of territory acquired by way of navy occupation.
For Europe extra broadly, and the European Union particularly, nevertheless, there may be way more at stake than these ideas, which Washington has not often prioritised in its personal international coverage.
Deterring Putin from additional aggression, and making certain that Ukraine is steady each politically and economically, lies on the core of the bloc’s safety and political issues. A settlement to the battle that fails to attain both would threat the bloc’s personal long-term safety.
In fact, all of this have to be managed whereas making certain that the Trump administration doesn’t itself additional endanger European safety by as soon as once more casting doubt on its dedication to NATO’s safety infrastructure. However Europe has already, if belatedly, begun to get up to those issues. By final 12 months, 23 NATO members had been spending the goal 2 % of GDP on defence, and the alliance agreed a brand new aim of elevating core defence spending to a minimum of 3.5 % of GDP by 2035, with as much as one other 1.5 % of GDP to be spent on essential infrastructure and on increasing their defence industrial bases.
Extra instantly, Europe has additionally surpassed the US for the primary time since June 2022 in complete navy help for Ukraine, with 72 billion euros ($83.6bn) allotted in contrast with Washington’s 65 billion euros ($75.5bn) by the tip of April, based on the Ukraine Assist Tracker.
But, whatever the consequence of the Trump administration’s efforts to push Ukraine in the direction of a negotiating place that Putin may be keen to just accept, the elevated European assist shouldn’t be sufficient to offset the standstill in US funding. Army help can be just one a part of the image: Kyiv depends on the West’s fiscal help as properly, to make sure the continued functioning of its authorities. And the invoice for reconstruction solely continues to develop as Russia’s assaults and aerial assaults proceed. In February, the World Financial institution estimated it at $524bn (506 billion euros) —about 280 % of Kyiv’s 2024 GDP.
With out dramatic motion, Europe dangers being left to Trump’s whims as to its future safety, regardless of having bowed to his calls for not solely on NATO spending and navy assist for Ukraine, but additionally on commerce by way of agreements which have seen the US’s common tariff charge on imports from the EU and UK rise sharply.
However there’s a clear coverage alternative that Europe could make to make sure that monetary assist for Kyiv stays enough over the approaching years and to form the end result of any settlement to the battle, whereas concurrently additional deterring Putin.
The European Union and the UK can transfer to confiscate the sovereign Russian funds frozen of their jurisdictions since 2022. Most significantly, they’ll seize the 185 billion euros ($214.8bn) frozen on the Belgium-based clearing home Euroclear – nearly all of which is now in money and may thus quickly be deployed or reinvested – in addition to the Russian authorities funds frozen at Euroclear’s Luxembourg-based rival, Clearstream, that are estimated to quantity to round 20 billion euros ($23.2bn).
Europe shouldn’t be unaware of this risk, and actually, it has been debating doing so for months. The Euroclear property have already been used to underpin an earlier $50bn (43 billion euros) mortgage to Ukraine finalised in January 2025, which is secured over earnings from these property.
Europe had been anticipated to advance a plan to create a brand new mortgage – one amounting to as a lot as 140 billion euros ($162.6bn) – secured over the property on the European Council assembly on December 18-19, after delaying a remaining resolution on the earlier council assembly on October 23. The delay was largely because of obstinacy from the Belgian authorities, which has demanded indemnification from the remainder of Europe whereas endorsing Kremlin speaking factors that such a transfer can be unprecedented.
But there may be ample precedent. German and Japanese authorities property had been seized by the USA in the middle of the second world warfare. Within the latter case, Japan’s property had been even frozen earlier than the assault on Pearl Harbour, nearly all of which had been later retained below the San Francisco Peace Treaty of 1951.
The Kremlin’s threats to tie up Belgium in decades-long litigation are additionally overblown. They depend on a pre-Soviet-collapse bilateral funding treaty that Putin and his proxies have already didn’t invoke efficiently to unfreeze their property or problem earlier sanctions. Moreover, there are dozens of unresolved claims price tens of billions of {dollars} in opposition to Russia in European courts — together with the roughly 13-billion-euro ($15bn) arbitration award received by power agency Uniper in opposition to Gazprom for disruption to fuel provides in 2022. The most important and most important case stays the 2014 award to former shareholders of Yukos, over the Kremlin’s expropriation of their firm. That award survived all appeals: in October 2025, the Supreme Court docket of the Netherlands rejected Russia’s remaining problem, confirming that the award — now valued at greater than $65bn, together with curiosity — is remaining and enforceable in opposition to Russian state property worldwide. Enforcement, nevertheless, will nonetheless rely on finding appropriate Russian property that courts are keen and in a position to seize.
The Kremlin will definitely interact in lawfare and litigation over these disputes, because it has repeatedly all through Putin’s tenure. However it’s going to lose, and when its nationwide pursuits are at stake, it’s going to pay. Russia has repeatedly complied with hostile rulings when important entry to Western markets or property was at stake. The one clear-cut circumstances of both the West or Russia returning funds owed because of litigation arising from Russia’s warfare have been the settlements paid by Russian state insurer NSK and aviation agency Aeroflot over Putin’s 2022 seizure of plane leased from Western firms.
There isn’t any excuse for Europe’s delays in appearing up to now. Each month of inaction will increase each the monetary burden on Europe and the probability that Washington will strike a deal that sidelines European pursuits. The query is now a essential one: how to make sure Ukraine’s continued financing and its potential to maintain its defence. It is usually all of the extra essential that Europe act earlier than the Trump Administration tries to safe a take care of the Kremlin over its head.
The 28-point “peace plan” formulated by Kremlin insiders and signed off by Trump’s particular envoy and long-time affiliate Steve Witkoff final month not solely contains carving up these similar frozen funds and even calls for that Europe itself present an extra $100 billion, however would additionally divert frozen Russian property away from Ukraine’s reconstruction whereas imposing an extra monetary burden instantly on Europe. Such a deal would depart Europe footing an excellent bigger invoice if the Kremlin fails to stick to its commitments — because it did with the ceasefire agreements struck in 2014 and 2015 following its preliminary invasion of Ukraine.
Europe has the leverage to advance its political, financial and navy safety within the negotiations over Ukraine’s future, and it should not be afraid to make use of it.
The views expressed on this article are the creator’s personal and don’t essentially replicate Al Jazeera’s editorial coverage.
