QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, you warned that Iran would face a disaster in February 2026. You additionally mentioned Iran would enter a interval of utmost battle with the turning level in 2024. Now we now have ships shifting to Iran. Socrates has been displaying a pointy rise in volatility starting in February into September. I perceive you’re a dealer and never a theoretical educational. Did you will have any thought in creating Socrates that you just not simply disproved Random Stroll Idea, however you created a system that does extra than simply forecast markets?
Robert S.
ANSWER: The September 2022 protests in Iran started this final wave which doesn’t finish till early 2027. That is the end result of the Islamic Revolution that started in 1979. In the event you have a look at a chart of a market, what you’ll sometimes see is {that a} bull market is an extended drawn out time period than a bear market. There are primary cyclical actions generated by human feelings insofar as we are likely to take an extended time period to realize confidence in one thing however we are likely to lose that confidence within the blink of a watch.
Socrates proves each single day that the BS of Randam Stroll and Environment friendly Market Theories are absurd for until you’re a dealer and look into the eyes of your opponent, you’ll by no means comprehend the world economic system. It’s like enjoying poker. Individuals don’t at all times wager on truth. Generally its a intestine feeling – a hunch. Everybody acts out of their very own self-interest and that mixture is so basic to all the things, those that search to regulate society and rule over us from above don’t have any respect for we, the Nice Unwashed. It’s at all times about them – not us.
Once I created Socrates, it was as a result of I used to be a dealer. I used to be fascinated about hedging from the Seventies as a result of I used to be a market maker in gold. As a result of I used to be in all probability the primary to enterprise into the sector of forecasting overseas alternate, I ended up with shoppers around the globe. Our stories use to exit by telex and within the ’80s the price could possibly be as much as $75 per market per day. So we had solely the largest shoppers again then as a result of the common individual may by no means afford the communication prices. That was the explanation I started to open workplaces around the globe to carry down the communication prices.
As one of many first Worldwide Hedge Fund Managers from 1985, Socrates was an incredible assistant. It was instructing me issues by forcing me to take a look at issues that weren’t at all times apparent at first look.
I used to be doing a TV spot I believe in 1982. It was FNN that grew to become CNBC. I used to be doing an interview with Walter Bressert. I gave our forecast that the British pound would fall to par by 1985. The pound was close to the $2 stage on the time so it was a few 50% drop. The host was shocked. He turned to Walt and requested – “What do you concentrate on that forecast?” Walt and I have been good buddies. He replied, “I might not wager towards his pc.”
Socrates has made so many wonderful forecasts far past what any human may attainable do as a result of there may be an array of variables globally that it simply takes a pc to trace. It’s not a neural web. These have by no means succeeded. Even IBM offered off its Watson when it failed to satisfy expectations. Why everybody has tried to imitate Socrates have missed the purpose. What I did was fully totally different. I coded myself into the system. I taught Socrates HOW TO ANALYZE. I didn’t throw all the information right into a neural web and hope it might determine it out all by itself. AI that’s on the market could also be impressing folks, however they’re language fashions. They will search the present information and retrive the reply.
Nevertheless, these AI Language Fashions won’t ever have the ability to discover ways to commerce or uncover the treatment for most cancers as IBM thought with WATSON. They’re NOT able to discovery as a result of to find something, it takes curiosity and that can not be coded.
It was the central financial institution of Lebanon that discovered information of their basement and requested if we may do a mannequin on their their nation. I’ve advised this story typically how we entered the information and out got here a forecast that their nation was going to collapse in 8 days. I believed there was one thing flawed with the information. The pc projected a parabolic transfer I are likely to name a Section Transition. They calmly requested which foreign money could be higher. I mentioned the Swiss franc. The pc was appropriate and eight days later the civil conflict started. That’s what opened my eyes to the flexibility of Socrates to forecast geopolitical occasions. They noticed the capital shifting and got here to us for the timing. We included their foreign money in our 1985 World Financial Convention.
I had a shopper who was one of many greatest shippers within the Center East. He referred to as someday and requested what gold would tomorrow as a result of Iraq was going to begin attacking ships within the Gulf to place financial strain on Iran. I got here to understand that somebody ALWAYS is aware of the within story forward of conflict and begins to maneuver their capital accordingly. The pc tracks the capital flows globally and in forecasting markets, it was additionally inevitably forecasting conflict and geopolitical occasions.
As I’ve defined many occasions, gold rallied into 1980 not due to inflation and the greenback, it rose from $480 to $875 on geopolitical occasions when the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan to help a fellow Communist authorities once more the rise of insurgents.
I’ve paid the value for inventing one thing that had nationwide safety implications. I supplied to run any examine the CIA needed. They bluntly advised me that they needed to personal it. I mentioned Socrates was not on the market. To even movie the Forecaster, all the things needed to be confirmed with the intention to get insurance coverage to make that film. It was insured by Lloyds of London towards slander and libel. The piece of proof was an e-mail to a lawyer demanding I flip over the supply code with the intention to enable the corporate to proceed forecasting. They fired 240 staff and stole their pension funds. That’s how honorable the federal government is when they need one thing.
The SEC even used our analysis throughout 911. Only a month after the assaults the SEC despatched out a listing of shares to numerous securities companies around the globe searching for data. The record contains shares of American, United, Continental, Northwest, Southwest and US Airways airways, in addition to Martin, Boeing, Lockheed Martin Corp., AIG, American Categorical Corp, American Worldwide Group, AMR Company, Axa SA, Financial institution of America Corp, Financial institution of New York Corp, Financial institution One Corp, Cigna Group, CNA Monetary, Carnival Corp, Chubb Group, John Hancock Monetary Providers, Hercules Inc, L-3 Communications Holdings, Inc., LTV Company, Marsh & McLennan Cos. Inc., MetLife, Progressive Corp., Common Motors, Raytheon, W.R. Grace, Royal Caribbean Cruises, Ltd., Lone Star Applied sciences, American Categorical, the Citigroup Inc. ,Royal & Solar Alliance, Lehman Brothers Holdings, Inc., Vornado Actuality Belief, Morgan Stanley, Dean Witter & Co., XL Capital Ltd., and Bear Stearns.
My observe document over many years proves past a shadow of doubt that Random Stroll Idea and Environment friendly Market Speculation are full bullshit. In the event that they have been true, they they might have left me alone and our staff. They did their greatest to cease the forecasting and to steal my life’s work. I by no means meant to create one thing that might be of Nationwide Safety. Why do you suppose the Home Judiciary Committee would NEVER dare to research my case with judges committing felonies that might pressure them to really take motion within the identify of justice and the structure?
