United States President Donald Trump has stated that Washington is engaged in “productive” talks with Iran. Publicly, Iranian officers have rejected Trump’s claims, calling them pretend information designed to ease oil costs.
Behind the scenes, Egypt, Turkiye and Pakistan have established an oblique channel of communication between American and Iranian officers previously few days, two senior diplomatic sources within the area informed Al Jazeera. Nonetheless, whatever the small window for diplomacy which will have emerged, specialists stay sceptical over the prospects for a ceasefire because the positions of the fighters stay far aside.
The Iranian management’s stance on what concessions to extract from the US seems to have hardened for the reason that begin of the battle on February 28, when the US and Israel attacked Iran, killing its then Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The US and Israel insist that their nonstop assaults since then have considerably “degraded” Iran’s navy capabilities – the Pentagon says 90 % of Iran’s missile capability has been worn out. However Iran has proven it could nonetheless hearth when it desires, and with precision.
Within the Strait of Hormuz – a waterway by way of which a fifth of worldwide oil exports move – a whole lot of vessels stay paralysed. And throughout the area, Iran has adopted an “eye for a watch” coverage to re-establish deterrence and guarantee that any menace is adopted by motion.
Simply final week, Iranian forces hit Qatar’s principal fuel web site – wiping out 17 % of its export capability – instantly after an Israeli assault on Iran’s South Pars area. After an assault on Iran’s Natanz nuclear energy plant, two Iranian ballistic missiles pierced by way of Israel’s defence programs, hitting the southern cities of Arad and Dimona, wounding greater than 180 folks.
Iran’s intention now, say specialists, will not be merely a ceasefire however a post-war order that restores deterrence and secures long-term financial and safety ensures.
Iran’s new crimson strains
Iran’s political and navy officers have stated in latest days that they need cost repatriations, agency ensures that Iran gained’t be attacked once more and a brand new regulatory framework for passage within the Strait of Hormuz.
Negar Mortazavi, a senior fellow on the Washington, DC-based Middle for Worldwide Coverage, says Tehran would search to finish the battle by itself phrases whereas extracting sanctions aid, reparations for injury and financial leverage.
“This chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz is now giving them concepts – ‘possibly we are able to cost passage charges like another locations on the earth’ – there are these discussions in Iran,” Mortazavi stated.
Iran is unlikely to forfeit that leverage with out main concessions, analysts say. That’s particularly so, given how Iran feels the battle has helped it win some financial aid that it didn’t get by way of diplomacy. On Friday, the Trump administration briefly waived sanctions on the acquisition of 140 million barrels of Iranian oil at sea in an try and ease oil costs.
What does the US need?
One of many numerous causes the US president listed to justify launching a battle on Iran was to stop Tehran from getting a nuclear bomb – regardless of having claimed to have obliterated Tehran’s nuclear programme through the 12-day battle final yr.
On Monday, Trump stated he nonetheless desires Iran to surrender the greater than 400kg of uranium enriched to near-weapons grade. Iranian officers say the inventory is buried underneath the rubble of one of many nuclear websites struck by the US.
Up to now, the US additionally wished Tehran to dismantle its ballistic missile programme and cease supporting armed teams throughout the area. In keeping with one in all two sources who spoke to Al Jazeera, Washington has now proposed that Iran maintain 1,000 medium-range missiles in its arsenal, a change in contrast with earlier calls for.
However any diplomatic breakthrough must emerge amid a whole lack of belief from the Iranian aspect. Trump bombed Iran twice whereas his envoys have been negotiating with Iranian representatives – in June 2025 and February 2026 – and he has repeatedly stated that his objective is regime change.
Questions over Iran’s negotiators
Additionally it is unclear who in Iran could be answerable for any negotiations – direct or oblique – with Washington, after US and Israeli assaults killed distinguished members of the Iranian management, together with Ali Larijani, who was the interlocutor to many mediators from different international locations.
On Tuesday, Iran appointed Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr as secretary of Iran’s Supreme Nationwide Safety Council. Zolghadr is a former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander and the secretary of the advisory Expediency Council since 2023. His appointment means that any Iranian negotiations are going to be extra tightly aligned with the IRGC ‘s menace notion and priorities, stated Babak Vahdad, a political analyst specializing in Iran.
“Put bluntly: this seems much less like a system making ready for compromise, and extra like one making ready to handle extended confrontation,” Vahdad stated.
Some specialists have argued that Trump’s postponement of assaults on Iran earlier this week was geared toward calming down oil costs, which have jumped by greater than 50 % for the reason that begin of the battle, whereas ready for 1000’s of US Marines to succeed in the Center East. Final week, 2,500 Marines, together with an amphibious assault ship, have been deployed to the area. In mid -March, the Trump administration had additionally ordered the deployment of the Japan-based USS Tripoli, one other amphibious assault ship believed to have on board 1000’s extra Marines.
Trump has remained imprecise on whether or not he plans to ship troops on the bottom, however he has mulled the thought of seizing Iran’s Kharg island within the north of the Gulf, from which 90 % of Iranian oil is exported.
“Diplomatic discuss is one factor; what I see on the bottom is one thing else,” stated Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a professor of political science from the United Arab Emirates.
Gulf states, in addition to different worldwide companions, would by no means settle for a situation the place Iran retains management of the Strait of Hormuz – one thing that might give Iranians the higher hand on Gulf power exports for the foreseeable future, stated Abdulla.
And because it’s unlikely that Tehran will drop its leverage over the strait, there are few diplomatic options left: “It’s the obligation of the worldwide group to take it again, and there’s one technique to do it, the navy approach,” stated Abdulla.
