The outbreak of clashes between the Syrian military and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) has highlighted the political and safety challenges the nation continues to face greater than a yr after the autumn of former President Bashar al-Assad.
The combating in Aleppo, which has killed no less than 22 folks this week, dropped at the forefront basic tensions between Damascus and the SDF – each of that are backed by the US.
Advisable Tales
checklist of three objectsfinish of checklist
The SDF and the Syrian authorities had signed an agreement to combine the Syrian-dominated forces right into a state establishment in March of final yr. However little progress has been made on that entrance, and the sporadic violence between the 2 sides become intense combating this week.
A truce to halt the clashes was introduced on Friday, however it seems to be already unravelling. Analysts warn that with no complete decision to the tensions, extra combating is all however inevitable.
Whereas it seems that there is no such thing as a home or worldwide urge for food for an all-out battle in Syria, specialists say that with the merger of the SDF – which controls giant components of northeast Syria – into the state stalled, the specter of renewed violence persists.
“I don’t assume there’s a whole lot of worldwide curiosity in main combating in the intervening time, particularly from the US aspect — so that might assist tamp issues down,” stated Aron Lund, a fellow at Century Worldwide.
“It’s removed from over, nonetheless. All the primary points stay unresolved, and neither aspect is prepared to compromise on fundamentals, so we’re going to see extra clashes ultimately.”
The clashes
This week’s combating has displaced tens of hundreds of individuals within the predominantly Kurdish Sheikh Maqsoud, Ashrafieh and Bani Zeid neighbourhoods, with either side accusing one another of initiating the violence.
Early on Friday, the Syrian Ministry of Defence introduced a six-hour short-term ceasefire within the three neighbourhoods, which was later prolonged to present the SDF fighters extra time to depart.
Syria’s Defence Ministry stated SDF fighters based mostly in Aleppo’s neighbourhoods can be redeployed to areas east of the Euphrates River.
Nevertheless, Kurdish councils that run Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafieh stated in a press release that calls to depart have been “a name to give up” and that Kurdish forces would as a substitute “defend their neighbourhoods”.
The combating casts its shadow over the March 2025 deal between Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s authorities and the SDF to convey the Kurdish-led forces beneath state establishments.
The settlement gives for a nationwide ceasefire, SDF cooperation with the state in confronting pro-al-Assad armed teams, and formal recognition of the Kurds as an integral a part of Syria, with assured citizenship and constitutional rights.
It additionally locations all border crossings with Iraq and Turkiye, together with airports and oilfields in northeastern Syria, beneath the authority of the central authorities.
The SDF
Thus far, no significant progress has been made in the direction of integration. Either side stay at odds over quite a few points, together with the method and construction of integration, for instance, whether or not the SDF would be a part of as a unified bloc or dissolve into particular person recruits.
A gathering on January 4 between senior SDF commanders and authorities officers concluded with no “tangible” outcomes in line with state media, with talks suspended pending additional negotiation.
The SDF rose to prominence as Syria started to fragment beneath the pressure of civil unrest in 2011.
It was formally established in 2015, with the Individuals’s Safety Models (YPG), a Kurdish militia linked to the Kurdistan Staff’ Celebration (PKK), forming the majority of its combating drive.
Regardless of the PKK being listed as a “terrorist” group by the US and most Western nations, Washington shortly allied itself with the SDF within the struggle towards ISIL (ISIS).
The group continues to be backed by a US-led worldwide coalition and retains superior gear and coaching that have been supplied by the US and its companions.
It’s estimated to have 50,000 to 90,000 well-trained, battle-hardened fighters.
However Turkiye, which struggled with a decades-long PKK riot and assaults, views the SDF as a risk to its safety.
Within the latest clashes, official Syrian authorities media retailers have referred to the SDF as “PKK terrorists”.
Regional influences
With Turkiye, a NATO ally of the US, distrustful of the SDF, the nation’s defence ministry has stated it is able to “help” Syria in its struggle towards the group.
Ankara, an ally of al-Sharaa’s authorities, has criticised Washington for years over its help for the SDF and launched a number of army operations in northern Syria to push the group off its border.
The intensifying rivalry between Turkiye and Israel has additionally raised considerations that the Israeli authorities could put its weight behind the SDF to supply a counterweight to Ankara’s affect in Syria.
Israel has already intervened within the inside Syrian battle when it bombed Damascus in July in help of Druze fighters battling authorities forces within the south of the nation.
The Israeli army has additionally expanded its occupation past the Golan Heights, and it has been establishing checkpoints and abducting people deep inside Syria’s territory.
The US, which has troops stationed in jap Syria, is allied with all of the events concerned: Turkiye, Israel, the Syrian authorities and the SDF.
And so, Washington has been making an attempt to mediate between all the edges. Final week, Syria and Israel agreed to determine an intelligence-sharing mechanism after US-brokered talks.
US envoy Tom Barrack has urged the “utmost restraint” after the clashes in Aleppo and hailed the short-lived ceasefire.
“Along with our allies and accountable regional companions, we stand able to facilitate efforts to de-escalate tensions and to afford Syria and its folks a renewed alternative to decide on the trail of dialogue over division,” Barrack stated in a press release calling for de-escalation from all sides.
“Allow us to prioritize the trade of concepts and constructive proposals over the trade of fireside. The way forward for Aleppo, and of Syria as an entire, belongs to its folks and have to be formed via peaceable means, not violence.”
US ‘can do probably the most’
Nanar Hawach, senior Syria analyst on the Worldwide Disaster Group, stated with each the federal government and SDF sustaining relationships with the US, it may restrict the danger of the March settlement’s complete collapse, saying it retains a “ceiling on escalation”.
“American involvement doesn’t assure decision, however it constrains the vary of outcomes and retains each events tethered to a negotiating framework neither can afford to desert,” he informed Al Jazeera.
Reporting from Damascus, Al Jazeera’s Ayman Oghanna stated Washington can “do probably the most” to spice up talks between the Syrian authorities and the SDF.
“The US has loved a powerful relationship with the SDF for over a decade. The US helped construct up and practice the SDF, it fought alongside the SDF, and 1,000 US troops stay in SDF territory the place they work intently collectively within the effort to eradicate ISIL from Syria,” Oghanna stated.
“However the US has additionally lately strengthened its ties with Damascus.”
What comes subsequent?
Rob Geist Pinfold, a global safety lecturer at King’s Faculty London, stated the short-term ceasefire in Aleppo merely pushes “the extra difficult points” down the highway.
“Sure, we’ve acquired a short lived ceasefire … which makes everybody’s lives higher, however because of this we’re arguably additional away from attending to a complete deal.”
For his half, Lund, the analyst, warned that extra clashes may result in a wider escalation.
“Until this example is managed nicely, it may immediate international interventions and worsen the already unhealthy relationship between Israel and Turkiye,” Lund informed Al Jazeera.
Some analysts have stated the hot button is extra talks and fewer violence.
Armenak Tokmajyan, a non-resident scholar on the Carnegie Center East Middle, argued that army stress alone is not going to resolve Syria’s fragmentation.
“Reintegration … can’t occur simply with drive,” he informed Al Jazeera, stressing the necessity for a multi-pronged technique, together with an inclusive nationwide framework.
“A whole lot of these armed teams don’t need to lay down their weapons as a result of they don’t know what this state will seem like,” he stated.
