The current downward spiral in Afghanistan-Pakistan relations would have been laborious to think about when Pakistani navy and civilian leaders welcomed the Taliban’s return to energy in Kabul in August 2021.
A Taliban authorities, Islamabad believed, could be pleasant to Pakistan and would change into a bulwark in opposition to any safety threats to the nation. In any case, Pakistan’s navy and intelligence companies had for greater than twenty years supported the Afghan Taliban motion.
Between 2001 and 2021, this meant a contradictory international coverage. On the one hand, by supporting america’ navy intervention in Afghanistan, Pakistan recognised the US-backed governments that dominated the nation. On the identical time, Pakistan covertly tolerated – and even enabled – the resurgence of the Taliban inside Pakistani territory, which additionally included cohabitation with different Pakistani fighter teams.
But, that relationship has now collapsed because the Pakistani air pressure struck targets in Kabul for the primary time this week.
An obvious disconnect of their mutual expectations and disrespect for one another’s capabilities make it more durable for them to resurrect what they as soon as had.
What’s at stake for each international locations?
The Pakistani safety institution, comprised of the military and the nation’s highly effective navy intelligence company, the Inter-Companies Intelligence (ISI), is accountable for devising and driving the nation’s Afghan coverage.
Traditionally, the military has additionally exercised important energy over the civilian administrations, even when Pakistan was not beneath navy rule.
Pakistan has confronted a surge of unprecedented assaults in opposition to its safety forces since 2021, coinciding with the Taliban’s return to energy in Afghanistan. Greater than 2,400 deaths have been recorded for the primary three quarters of 2025, towering over final yr’s whole determine of about 2,500 individuals killed in assaults throughout Pakistan.
Pakistan has blamed a majority of assaults on the Pakistan Taliban, identified by the acronym TTP, whose leaders at the moment are based mostly in Afghanistan. TTP members hail largely from the tribal areas of Pakistan, alongside the Afghan border.
Pakistan had hoped that TTP leaders would depart Afghanistan as soon as the Pakistan-friendly Taliban authorities was established in Kabul. Some TTP fighters reportedly did return dwelling, however this didn’t translate right into a decline in violence. The TTP calls for a localised implementation of Islamic regulation and the reinstatement of the previous semi-autonomous standing of tribal areas bordering Afghanistan.
For Pakistan, confronting a lethal and chronic rebellion at dwelling has change into a nationwide safety disaster. The nation is, in the meantime, additionally reeling from a number of different intersecting crises: A stunted economic system, geopolitical tensions with archrival India – marked by the current battle in Could – in addition to rising home political discontent, and pure disasters.
Taliban leaders in Afghanistan insist that the TTP is a home problem for Pakistan to handle. In 2022, shortly after forming an interim administration, the Taliban authorities mediated talks between TTP leaders and the Pakistani military in Kabul. After preliminary indications of progress, underpinned by a short lived ceasefire, the talks collapsed.
For the Taliban authorities, which is closely sanctioned and remoted from worldwide monetary establishments, the realities of ruling a vastly underdeveloped and economically poor nation are stark. Over 4 years since taking energy, Russia is the one nation that has formally recognised the Taliban administration, although a rising variety of international locations – China, India and Iran amongst them – have acknowledged the group as Afghanistan’s rulers and are internet hosting their diplomatic representatives.
Afghans are affected by the near-collapse of the economic system, and public sector establishments, equivalent to well being and training companies, are on the point of a whole breakdown. Confronted with extreme meals shortages and humanitarian challenges, Afghans endure as United Nations-led support businesses face funding cuts. A chronic battle with Pakistan is more likely to additional deepen these challenges.
Can each side return to their previous friendship?
Either side seem, for the time being, to be digging their heels in. Although they’ve agreed to short-term ceasefires, neither facet needs to look weak by admitting it must again down.
Official Pakistani authorities statements now confer with the Taliban authorities – whose return to energy in Kabul was as soon as celebrated – as a “regime”, calling for a extra “inclusive” administration in Afghanistan. They warn of continuous assaults inside Afghan territories if the Taliban fail to behave in opposition to the TTP.
To make sure, Pakistan possesses a considerably extra highly effective navy, technologically superior weaponry, and appreciable geopolitical leverage in opposition to the Taliban authorities. There’s additionally a renewed sense of self-confidence as Pakistan considers it efficiently fought the current warfare with India in Could 2025, together with by downing a number of Indian jets.
Because the Eighties, it has hosted hundreds of thousands of Afghan refugees, a era of whom have been educated and have constructed livelihoods in Pakistani cities. This, based on Pakistani leaders and a few public opinion, ought to imply that Afghans should bear goodwill in direction of Pakistan. Forcing out Afghan refugees will likely be a key leverage Pakistan would wish to use in opposition to the Taliban authorities.
Essentially, Pakistani leaders view their nation as a severe and highly effective entity with robust world alliances – one which any Afghan authorities, particularly one led by a gaggle supported by Pakistan, ought to respect and cooperate with.
The Taliban, however, view themselves as victorious, battle-hardened fighters who waged a protracted and profitable warfare in opposition to international occupation by a worldwide superpower. Therefore, a possible battle imposed by a neighbour could be a lesser mission.
Taliban spokesmen are pushing again in opposition to Pakistani officers’ current narrative, underlining the importance of the continued data warfare on each side. They’ve alleged, for example, that Pakistan’s tribal border areas shelter ISIL (ISIL) fighters with tacit backing from parts of the Pakistani military.
Nonetheless, as a landlocked nation, Afghanistan is closely depending on commerce routes by way of Pakistan, which stay shut attributable to ongoing tensions, leading to main losses for merchants on each side. The Taliban authorities lacks air defence programs, radars or fashionable weaponry to counter any additional incursions by Pakistani drones and jets.
The trail to de-escalation
The Pakistani military continues to border its combat in opposition to TTP as a part of the broader confrontation with India. It has alleged, with out proof, that the armed group is backed by New Delhi. Pakistan additionally expects the Taliban to disown and distance themselves from the TTP and as a substitute align themselves with Islamabad.
Nevertheless, the TTP and Taliban share long-term camaraderie, ideological compatibility and social bonds that transcend stringent organisational peculiarities. For the Taliban, a battle with the TTP may additionally danger creating house for minacious actors such because the ISIL affiliate in Khorasan Province (ISKP) armed group.
And whereas Pakistan is stronger militarily, the Taliban have their very own instruments that might damage Islamabad.
What if the Taliban’s Kandahar-based supreme chief, Haibatullah Akhunzada, have been to problem a fatwa for warfare in opposition to Pakistan’s safety institution? The TTP management had already pledged allegiance to Akhunzada in 2021. However the Taliban’s prime chief can also be held in excessive non secular regard by a big phase of Pakistani non secular college college students and spiritual leaders, and a name in opposition to Islamabad from Akhunzada may result in severe inner safety challenges for Pakistan.
Islamist political teams in Pakistan would additionally not assist an all-out warfare with the Taliban. In the meantime, any sustained Pakistani assaults in opposition to Afghanistan will probably bolster home assist for the incumbent Taliban administration, even when there may be palpable resentment amongst Afghans in opposition to the Taliban.
To stop additional escalation and search significant political dialogue, there may be an pressing want for a trusted mediation actor able to sustainable engagement. This function is greatest fitted to Center Japanese and Muslim nations trusted by each side, equivalent to Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
There’s proof that this can be a fruitful pathway. Taliban International Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi confirmed in a information convention in New Delhi final week that the Taliban ceased retaliatory assaults in opposition to Pakistan after Qatar and Saudi Arabia mediated.
However first, there must be an actual need for peace from the leaders in Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Whilst Afghan and Pakistani officers hurl warnings at one another, and their forces have interaction in repeated bouts of cross-border fireplace, each international locations are acutely conscious that warfare will price them closely.
Nevertheless, this doesn’t imply that relations will return to the erstwhile bilateral heat anytime quickly or that miscalculations can’t occur.
Geography and historical past bind Afghans and Pakistanis into interdependence, which must be capitalised upon.
Governments have to cease hoping in useless for the success of failed approaches which have been tried for many years. Afghan leaders should work at creating amicability with Pakistan. Pakistani leaders have to reciprocate by conceiving a healthful international coverage in direction of Afghanistan, which isn’t colored by rivalry with India.
The world doesn’t want yet one more warfare within the Afghanistan-Pakistan area. It will probably by no means bear higher dividends than peace.
