Chinese language President Xi Jinping reached Kazakhstan on Monday to attend the second China–Central Asia Summit, a high-stakes diplomatic gathering geared toward deepening Beijing’s financial and strategic ties with the area.
The summit, which can be held on Tuesday within the Kazakh capital Astana, comes at a time when China is intensifying its outreach to Central Asian nations amid shifting international energy alignments — and mounting tensions in neighbouring Iran, which is roiled in an escalating battle with Israel.
The summit will convey collectively the heads of state from all 5 Central Asian nations — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan — together with Xi.
The Astana summit additionally carries symbolic weight: it’s the first time that the 5 Central Asian nations are holding a summit within the area with the chief of one other nation.
So, what’s the significance of the China-Central Asia Summit? And is China battling each the US and Russia for affect within the area?
What’s on Xi’s agenda in Astana?
On Monday, Xi was greeted by Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and different senior officers on the airport in Astana. The Astana summit follows the inaugural Could 2023 China–Central Asia Summit, which was held in Xi’an, the capital metropolis of China’s Shaanxi province.
Xi is anticipated to be in Astana from June 16 to 18 and is scheduled to carry bilateral conferences with Kazakhstan’s leaders on Monday earlier than the summit on June 17.
On the summit, he’s anticipated to ship a keynote speech and “alternate views on the achievements of the China-Central Asia mechanism, mutually useful cooperation below the framework, and worldwide and regional hotspot points,” said a Chinese language International Ministry spokesperson.
The workplace of Kazakhstan’s president famous that each nations are “set to additional strengthen bilateral ties” and Xi may also chair “high-level talks with President [Tokayev] targeted on deepening the excellent strategic partnership”.
Tokayev, who has been in workplace since 2019, is a fluent Mandarin speaker and beforehand served as a diplomat in China.
Zhao Lengthy, a senior analysis fellow on the Shanghai Institutes for Worldwide Research (SIIS), informed Al Jazeera that Central Asian nations see their partnership with China as a deep, multifaceted cooperation grounded in shared strategic and pragmatic pursuits.
“The alignment with China helps Central Asian states improve their regional stability, pursue financial modernisation, and diversify their diplomatic portfolios,” mentioned Zhao. The place Central Asia has ample vitality assets, he mentioned, China presents huge markets, superior expertise, and infrastructure experience.
Final Friday, Lin Jian, a Chinese language International Ministry spokesperson, informed a information briefing that establishing “the China-Central Asia mechanism was a unanimous resolution amongst China and the 5 Central Asian nations, which dovetails with the area’s frequent want to keep up stability and pursue high-quality growth”.
Since China first formalised and chaired the China-Central Asia Summit in Could 2023, Lin mentioned, “China’s relations with Central Asian nations have entered a brand new period … injecting recent impetus into regional growth and delivering tangibly for the peoples of all six nations.”
“We imagine by means of this summit, China and 5 Central Asian nations will additional consolidate the muse of mutual belief,” Lin added.
“Throughout the summit, President Xi may also meet with these leaders and lay out the top-level plan for China’s relations with [the] 5 Central Asian nations,” mentioned the spokesperson.
SIIS’s Zhao mentioned Xi’s attendance on the second summit sends a transparent message: “China locations excessive strategic significance on Central Asia.”
What’s ‘C5+1’ – and is China racing the US for affect?
Specialists are dubbing the China-Central Asia Summit as a C5+1 framework, due to the 5 regional nations concerned.
America first initiated the idea of such a summit with all 5 Central Asian nations in 2015, below then-US President Barack Obama. However on the time, the conclave was held on the degree of international ministers. Then-US Secretary of State John Kerry led the primary assembly in September 2015 on the sidelines of the United Nations Basic Meeting (UNGA) in New York.
In January 2022, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a digital summit with the 5 Central Asian state heads, after which in June 2025, he invited them for a follow-up conclave in India.
In the meantime, in 2023, Xi hosted the leaders in Xi’an. 4 months later, then-US President Joe Biden hosted the C5 state heads on the sidelines of the UNGA in New York. It was the primary time a US president met with Central Asian heads of state below this framework.
However present US President Donald Trump’s tariff insurance policies might upset that outreach from Washington. Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have all been tariffed at 10 p.c.
Trump initially imposed a fair increased 27 p.c tariff on imports from Kazakhstan, the area’s largest economic system, although as with all different nations, the US president has paused these charges, limiting tariffs to a flat 10 p.c for now.
China has cited these tariff charges to mission itself as a extra dependable associate to Central Asia than the US. On the assembly with the international ministers of the area in April, Chinese language International Minister Wang Yi criticised unilateralism, commerce protectionism, and “the pattern of anti-globalisation [that] has severely impacted the free commerce system”.
The US, Wang mentioned, was “undermining the rule-based multilateral buying and selling system, and destabilising the worldwide economic system”.
Why does Central Asia matter to China?
The area, wealthy in uranium, oil, and uncommon earth metals, has turn into more and more vital to China as a key hall for commerce with Europe. Subsequently, China has elevated its engagement with Central Asian nations.
Xi, who has curtailed his international visits for the reason that COVID-19 pandemic, is visiting Kazakhstan for the third time since 2020. He visited in 2022, after which once more in 2024.
Central Asia can also be a crucial a part of Xi’s Belt and Street Initiative (BRI) — a community of highways, railroads and ports connecting Asia, Africa, Europe and Latin America — as a gateway to Europe.
Specialists anticipate the BRI to determine prominently on the summit in Astana on Tuesday, with extra emphasis on collaboration in vitality and sustainable growth.
A deliberate $8bn railway connecting China’s Xinjiang area to Uzbekistan by means of Kyrgyzstan is prone to be on the agenda, the SIIS’s Zhao mentioned. Development on the mission is scheduled to start in July. Anticipated to be accomplished by 2030, the railway route will present China with extra direct entry to Central Asia and cut back the three nations’ reliance on Russia’s transport infrastructure.
Moreover, Zhao mentioned, the summit could characteristic agreements on lowering tariffs, streamlining customs procedures, and reducing non-tariff obstacles to spice up bilateral commerce volumes.
How a lot does Central Asia depend upon China?
Rather a lot.
China is immediately the highest buying and selling associate of every of the 5 Central Asian republics.
- Kazakhstan imported items value $18.7bn from China and exported items value $15bn in 2023 — making up 30 p.c of its whole imports and 16 p.c of exports.
- Tajikistan imported items value $3.68bn from China and exported items value $250m in 2023 — making up 56 p.c of its whole imports and 16 p.c of exports.
- Kyrgyzstan imported items value $3.68bn and exported items value $887m in 2023 from China — constituting 29 p.c of its whole imports and 26 p.c of exports.
- Uzbekistan imported items value $12.7bn and exported items value $1.82bn in 2023 from the world’s second-largest economic system — representing 32 p.c of its whole imports and 6 p.c of exports.
- Turkmenistan imported items value $957m and exported items value $9.63bn in 2023 from China — or 20 p.c of its whole imports and 62 p.c of exports.
China can also be ramping up its investments within the area. It has dedicated to an estimated $26bn in investments in Kazakhstan, as an example.
Is China changing Russia in Central Asia?
It’s sophisticated.
Previously elements of the Soviet Union, the 5 Central Asian republics have lengthy belonged in Russia’s strategic sphere of affect. Hundreds of thousands of individuals from the 5 republics stay and work in Russia, and since 2023, Moscow has turn into a provider of pure gasoline to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, which have confronted vitality shortages — regardless that Central Asia was traditionally a provider of vitality to Russia.
However although Russia stays a significant financial drive within the area, China has overtaken it as the most important buying and selling associate of Central Asian republics over the previous three years — a interval that has coincided with Russia’s warfare on Ukraine. A few of that elevated commerce, in actual fact, is believed to be the result of China utilizing Central Asia as a conduit for exports to Russia of products that face Western sanctions.
Nonetheless, there are methods by which Russia stays the area’s preeminent exterior ally. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan — three of the area’s 5 nations — are a part of the Collective Safety Treaty Organisation (CSTO) — together with Russia, Armenia and Belarus. Like NATO, this bloc presents collective safety ensures to members. In impact, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have the duvet of Russia’s safety if they’re attacked by one other nation — one thing that China doesn’t supply.
