In Iran’s main turning factors, Hassan Rouhani’s title tends to resurface – even when he’s not on the centre of decision-making. And because the Islamic Republic enters a delicate transitional section after Supreme Chief Ali Khamenei was killed in a joint United States-Israeli strike, the query of which figures is likely to be used to calm the home enviornment or rebalance energy contained in the system has returned to the forefront.
Rouhani, Iran’s former president (2013–2021), a Muslim chief with a doctorate in regulation, will not be an outsider to the system he as soon as promised to “reform”. He’s a product of it: a longtime parliamentarian, a veteran of the national-security equipment, and a former chief nuclear negotiator who rose to the presidency in 2013 as a pragmatist providing financial reduction via diplomacy.
The lengthy street via parliament
Rouhani was born in 1948 in Sorkheh, in Iran’s Semnan province. He obtained non secular coaching within the Hawza system (Islamic non secular seminary), then studied regulation on the College of Tehran, earlier than incomes a PhD in regulation from Glasgow Caledonian College in 1999.
After the revolution, he constructed his profession via parliament. He was elected to the Majlis (Iran’s legislature) for 5 consecutive phrases between 1980 and 2000, giving him sensible political expertise and longstanding relationships throughout the elite.
That background explains a part of his later picture as a “consensus man” greater than an ideological confrontational chief: somebody who strikes throughout the guidelines of the sport, not exterior them.
A ‘third street’ in Iran’s post-revolution politics
To know Rouhani’s political model, it helps to put it in an extended arc of post-1979 ideological currents contained in the Islamic Republic – an arc usually described in Iranian political writing as a sequence of competing “discourses” that nonetheless remained anchored to the revolution and the system’s religious-constitutional framework.
Iran moved via phases that emphasised completely different priorities: currents typically described as “Islamic left”, “Islamic liberalism”, and a extra market-oriented flip underneath former chief Hashemi Rafsanjani; then a interval of “Islamic democracy” and “civil society” related to Mohammad Khatami; adopted by a social-justice-heavy, populist register underneath Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
That’s when Rouhani arrived with the language of e‘tedal –or “moderation”.
Inside that framework, “moderation” presents itself as an try to stability what supporters name the system’s two pillars: the “Republic” (pragmatism, governance, responsiveness) and the “Islamic” (beliefs, clerical authority, revolutionary id). This stability turned central to Rouhani’s pitch in 2013: He promised to scale back exterior strain, restart financial development and decrease home polarisation with out difficult the authority construction that in the end constrains any elected president in Iran.
The negotiator and president
Between 2003 and 2005, Rouhani led Iran’s delegation in nuclear negotiations with the “European troika” (Britain, France and Germany). He gained a fame as a “pragmatist” amongst Western diplomats, whereas Iranian hardliners accused him of constructing concessions.
Later, that document turned a pillar of his 2013 presidential marketing campaign: a negotiator somewhat than a confrontationist.
In June that 12 months, Rouhani gained the presidency within the first spherical with greater than 50 p.c of the vote, avoiding a run-off in an election that noticed excessive turnout.
Rouhani’s signature achievement was the 2015 nuclear settlement, the Joint Complete Plan of Motion (JCPOA), negotiated between Iran and the P5+1 – the US, China, Russia, France, United Kingdom and European Union.
Beneath the deal, the US and its allies lifted the majority of sanctions imposed on Iran, and allowed Tehran entry to greater than $100bn in frozen property. In change, Iran agreed to main caps on its nuclear programme.
At house, Rouhani offered the deal as a path to normalise the economic system and curb inflation.
2017: A second mandate – and first brush with Trump
In Might 2017, Rouhani gained a second time period with about 57 p.c of the vote. Many inside Iran learn the outcome as a guess by the nation’s individuals on continued “opening” and diminished isolation.
However the energy equation inside Iran didn’t change. The presidency manages day-to-day governance, but it surely doesn’t resolve alone on the safety companies, the judiciary, the Revolutionary Guards or the core media structure.
The diplomatic opening proved short-lived. In 2018, US President Donald Trump, in his first time period, withdrew Washington from the JCPOA and reimposed sweeping sanctions, sharply limiting the financial features Rouhani had promised. The reversal weakened Iran’s pragmatists and reformists, who had invested political capital in defending the settlement as the perfect out there route out of isolation–whereas giving hardliners new ammunition to argue that negotiations with the US can not ship sturdy reduction.
Submit-presidential 12 months – and a return from political exile?
Rouhani’s presidency resulted in 2021, and with the rise of conservative dominance inside Iran’s politics, he seemed to be progressively pushed to the margins. He then turned a member of Iran’s Meeting of Specialists – the physique constitutionally empowered to decide on the supreme chief.
However in January 2024, the Reuters information company reported that the Guardian Council barred Rouhani from working once more for the Meeting of Specialists.
Two years later, after the February 28 strike that killed Khamenei, the nation – in keeping with the structure– entered a short lived association section till the Meeting of Specialists selects a brand new chief. President Masoud Pezeshkian, Supreme Courtroom Chief Justice Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei and Guardian Council member Ayatollah Alireza Arafi kind the interim management council which can be in cost till the Meeting of Specialists pronounces its decide for the subsequent Supreme Chief.
And from the hushed conversations and chatter which have emerged from inside Iran’s elite circles over potential candidates for the supreme chief’s position, Rouhani’s title has resurfaced.
That potential return to political life, analysts say, is a testomony to what Rouhani represents in Iran’s factional geometry: a governing fashion that privileges tactical compromise, financial administration and managed engagement – whereas remaining basically loyal to the Islamic Republic’s constitutional-religious structure.
As Iran plans Khamenei’s succession, it faces a central query: whether or not to broaden legitimacy by incorporating pragmatic faces or double down on a security-first posture. Rouhani sits at that crossroads – not the architect of the system, and not a principal decision-maker, however a sturdy indicator of how far Iran’s institution is prepared to bend with out breaking.
