Dhaka, Bangladesh – It was nearly midnight, however tens of hundreds of individuals had been nonetheless gathering for a marketing campaign rally in Gazipur, a garment manufacturing hub north of Bangladesh’s capital, Dhaka.
Many had been ready for hours to listen to Tarique Rahman, who succeeded because the chairman of the Bangladesh Nationalist Celebration (BNP) following the dying of his mom and Bangladesh’s first feminine prime minister, Khaleda Zia, in December.
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BNP leaders noticed the turnout as proof that their social gathering, lengthy oppressed below 15 years of ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s authorities, was in a position to mobilise supporters and rebuild its power because it seeks to return to energy within the February 12 general election.
Hasina’s Awami League social gathering was banned from politics final yr by the interim administration of Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, leaving the BNP a frontrunner in Thursday’s vote. Its fundamental rival is Jamaat-e-Islami (also called Jamaat), a resurgent Islamist social gathering, which has allied with the Nationwide Citizen Celebration (NCP), fashioned by former pupil leaders of the 2024 rebellion that toppled Hasina.
Since returning to Bangladesh on December 25 after practically 17 years of exile in the UK, Rahman, 60, has been on the centre of the BNP’s election marketing campaign, which ended on Tuesday. His rallies drew massive crowds, along with his presence reassuring supporters of the social gathering’s revival after the arrests, inner splits, and its distance from voters throughout Hasina’s authorities.
The symbolism of his return – seen, accessible, and main from the entrance – carried its personal energy, tapping right into a grassroots base that traces again to his father, Basic Ziaur Rahman, a former navy chief whose legacy formed the BNP earlier than his assassination in 1981.
But the passion has more and more been accompanied by unease, leading to an election marketing campaign outlined as a lot by anticipation as by doubt.
Management take a look at: From exile to command
For practically 17 years, Rahman successfully led the BNP from exile in London, counting on intermediaries and digital communication, whereas a lot of the social gathering’s senior management, together with his mom, Khaleda, confronted arrests, courtroom instances and political restrictions in Bangladesh. His return introduced his authority nearer to the bottom, but it surely additionally uncovered the issue of changing symbolic management into efficient organisational management.
One of many fast challenges the BNP confronted was implementing self-discipline inside the social gathering. Some 92 candidates are contesting towards official BNP nominees in 79 of the nation’s 300 constituencies, highlighting persistent factionalism on the native stage.
“This appears greater than at any earlier time,” mentioned Al Masud Hasanuzzaman, an analyst and professor of political science at Jahangirnagar College.
Furthermore, a current examine by Transparency Worldwide Bangladesh discovered that 91 p.c of political violence recorded since August 5, 2024, concerned BNP activists, a statistic that raises additional questions in regards to the social gathering’s inner management.
Political analyst Dilara Chowdhury, who has studied the nationalist politics of Rahman’s mother and father, mentioned the dearth of self-discipline inside the BNP grew to become more and more seen throughout this yr’s election campaign.
“This can be a main weak spot,” Chowdhury advised Al Jazeera. “He [Rahman] has not been in a position to set up self-discipline inside the social gathering thus far. Insurgent candidates have emerged and, in lots of instances, they’re overtly difficult the central management.”
Whereas Hasanuzzaman frames Rahman’s reliance on household legacy as a bonus within the election, Chowdhury sees it as a supply of heightened expectation – and stress.
“To outshine leaders like Khaleda Zia and Ziaur Rahman is rarely simple,” Chowdhury mentioned. “I don’t assume he has but demonstrated that stage of charisma.”
Chowdhury mentioned the election is the primary decisive take a look at of Rahman’s management. “If he can lead the social gathering to victory regardless of all these challenges, that will mark his first actual success as a pacesetter in his personal proper.”
‘Little or no homework’
Rahman’s public messaging has additionally drawn scrutiny. Analysts say his speeches, typically combining bold guarantees with factual inaccuracies, erode confidence, particularly amongst undecided voters.
Reality-checks of a number of of his claims have been extensively shared on-line.
At a rally within the southern district of Faridpur, Rahman mentioned the world produces massive portions of soya beans. The declare was shortly challenged, as soya bean shouldn’t be a serious crop there, with cultivation concentrated primarily in Bangladesh’s southern coastal belt.
In one other occasion, a viral graphic mocked a number of of his pledges as both already applied or recycled from the 2001-2006 BNP-Jamaat-led authorities, together with declaring the coastal metropolis of Chattogram because the nation’s “industrial capital”.
Analysts and social gathering insiders say such episodes level to gaps in Rahman’s analysis and management, and complicate his efforts to challenge himself as a nationwide chief who is ready.
“Sure, he makes errors in speeches,” admitted a BNP chief in southern Bangladesh, talking on situation of anonymity. “However he was exterior the nation for a very long time. We imagine he’ll enhance.”
Analyst Chowdhury mentioned his lack of preparation was a problem.
“He has taken cost of the marketing campaign, however there’s little or no homework,” she mentioned. “He finally ends up saying many issues which are merely flawed, like claiming he’ll plant 500 million bushes. That’s not a reputable proposition.”
Chowdhury additionally questioned the feasibility of Rahman’s flagship coverage proposals, together with a “household card” to offer month-to-month money to girls and the unemployed. “When you speak about household playing cards, the apparent query is the place the cash will come from,” she mentioned. “And for those who present allowances to the unemployed indefinitely, there’s a danger the financial system turns into much less productive.”
Rahman’s anticorruption rhetoric has additionally did not instill confidence amongst folks, Chowdhury mentioned. “He’s saying he’ll get rid of corruption, whereas he has nominated 23 mortgage defaulters for the election.”
In a televised deal with to the nation on Monday night, Rahman sought to deal with such considerations, acknowledging previous failures below the BNP’s authorities and pledging a tough line on corruption.
“There isn’t any various to creating the state and authorities accountable to the folks,” he mentioned. “If entrusted with energy, a BNP authorities can be as agency as potential in controlling corruption and restoring the rule of regulation – that is our dedication to the nation.”
Khan Sobayel bin Rafiq, a political commentator and former navy officer, pointed to the hole between Rahman’s private attraction and the BNP’s means to counter longstanding narratives about corruption inside its ranks.
“Younger voters aged between 18 and 26 didn’t witness BNP rule,” Sobayel advised Al Jazeera. “A lot of them have internalised the concept that BNP represents corruption and ‘chandabazi’ [extortion]. The social gathering has not been in a position to decisively flip that notion round.”
Sobayel, who describes himself as a sufferer of Hasina’s hardline insurance policies, himself spent 11 years in compelled exile in Malaysia after he, as a member of a navy committee investigating a 2009 mutiny by troopers from the Bangladesh Rifles regiment, refused to endorse what he referred to as a “fabricated investigation report” pushed by the federal government.
Thomas Kean, a guide for Bangladesh and Myanmar on the Worldwide Disaster Group, thinks Bangladesh is unlikely to return to the sort of repression seen throughout Hasina’s lengthy years in energy. However he additionally warned that perceptions in regards to the BNP on the grassroots stage proceed to form the general public’s belief.
“The management seems to recognise that one thing has essentially modified in Bangladesh,” Kean mentioned. “On the identical time, allegations of extortion and legal exercise – whether or not correct or not – have broken the social gathering’s picture, significantly amongst youthful voters.”
‘Loyalty over meritocracy’
On Friday, whereas unveiling the BNP’s election manifesto at a luxurious resort in Dhaka, Rahman spoke in regards to the significance of putting “the precise particular person in the precise place”.
Analysts, in addition to some social gathering insiders, mentioned they had been uncertain about whether or not that precept was mirrored in how his marketing campaign group was assembled.
A BNP chief, talking on situation of anonymity owing to the sensitivity of inner social gathering issues throughout an election, mentioned Rahman’s public communication shifted after his return, formed by advisers who accompanied him throughout his years in exile.
“He introduced his shut aides from London, who, like him, had been away from Bangladesh for 17 years,” the chief advised Al Jazeera. “So much has modified in that point, and there’s a notion that they’ve struggled to know the modified realities.”
The social gathering insider mentioned Rahman’s interactions with individuals are being tightly managed, limiting his publicity to grassroots suggestions regardless of his in depth travels throughout the nation. “Though he’s travelling throughout Bangladesh, he stays remoted from floor actuality,” the BNP chief mentioned.
The social gathering insider additionally alleged that Rahman “opted for loyalty over meritocracy”.
“You may run a celebration with people who find themselves loyal to you, however not a authorities. That is his greatest problem. If he needs to manipulate, he might want to promote meritocracy and usher in professionals who can supply sound recommendation – and that has been lacking thus far.”
Analyst Chowdhury agreed, saying the difficulty has created tensions inside the BNP, with many native leaders who endured arrests and hardships throughout Hasina’s authorities feeling sidelined. This might undermine Rahman’s attraction, significantly amongst youthful voters.
“Whereas he was in London, the folks round him there at the moment are being given extra significance than those that stood by him contained in the nation,” she advised Al Jazeera. “There’s a battle between these teams.”
Will dynasty undermine political legitimacy?
Asif Mohammad Shahan, a professor of improvement research at Dhaka College, thinks Rahman is in “a tough place”.
“If the social gathering doesn’t win by a landslide, he can be blamed. If it wins comfortably, folks will say it was anticipated. There isn’t any clear win for him,” he advised Al Jazeera.
Central to each his attraction and the criticism he faces is Rahman’s lineage.
Because the son of former President Ziaur Rahman and three-time chief Khaleda, he embodies a political dynasty that many youthful voters say they need to transfer past, whilst that legacy continues to mobilise folks throughout the nation.
BNP leaders, nonetheless, reject the concept that being a part of a dynasty undermines political legitimacy.
In a current interview with Al Jazeera, BNP Secretary-Basic Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir argued that political inheritance is widespread throughout South Asia and shouldn’t disqualify a pacesetter if he’s “succesful, accountable and topic to public scrutiny”.
Analysts take a extra nuanced view, regardless of seeing Rahman as a number one contender for the premiership.
Sobayel bin Rafiq, the previous navy officer, distinguishes the person and his organisation. “Tarique Rahman as an individual and the BNP as a celebration are two various things,” he mentioned. “I need to see him because the prime minister. However total, the social gathering’s efficiency as an organisation has not been robust.”
Analyst Chowdhury factors to a special actuality.
“It appears a section of the civil and navy paperwork could help a BNP victory as a result of they see it as a return to a well-known established order, the place they’ll defend their vested pursuits,” she mentioned.
For Rahman, nonetheless, the election is not only a contest for energy, however a referendum on whether or not his return from exile marks a real break from the previous or merely a well-known cycle below new management.
“If any unintentional errors had been made whereas governing the nation up to now, I sincerely apologise to the folks,” he mentioned in his deal with to the nation on Monday. “Studying from these errors, and constructing on our achievements, we need to create a secure Bangladesh for the current and future generations.”
