United States President Donald Trump’s second administration has launched a daring and unconventional technique for the Center East. The administration intends to recalibrate US affect in a area traditionally scarred by battle, prioritising regional stability by way of financial energy and army consolidation by asserting a stronger, business-minded US presence.
On the centre of Trump’s formidable aim is what the brand new US envoy to Iraq, Mark Savaya, described as his aim to “make Iraq nice once more”. This strategy strikes away from conventional limitless conflict ways in the direction of a transactional, results-oriented diplomacy that goals to revive Iraqi sovereignty and financial vitality. It could possibly be the “nice gamble” for Trump, who seeks an Iraq that serves as a steady, sovereign regional hub quite than a battleground for overseas pursuits.
Trump’s main plans and desires for Iraq contain a twofold mission: consolidating all armed forces beneath the command of the authentic state and drastically decreasing the affect of malign overseas gamers, most notably Iran. The administration seeks to open Iraqi markets to worldwide funding, improve the nation’s infrastructure, and safe the independence of its power sector. Therefore, the plan is to floor a real partnership that respects Iraq’s unity whereas guaranteeing that it’s now not a central node for militia exercise or exterior interference.
Militias and political gridlock
This assertive US technique lands straight in a extremely contested and fractured political surroundings in Iraq, which is much less a single state than a patchwork of competing powers. The center of the issue lies not simply in parliament, but in addition within the persistent shadow affect of armed factions and militias that always function outdoors the formal chain of state command. These teams have been among the many greatest winners within the November 2025 elections.
Now the continued authorities negotiations have thrown a stark gentle on these non-state actors.
Their energy raises essential considerations for the longer term: How can Iraq implement the legislation and, crucially, appeal to the overseas funding wanted for revival if armed teams problem state authority? The consolidation of the nation’s armed forces beneath full state management is an pressing necessity, underscored by rising regional tensions and safety threats.
Furthermore, the trail to reaching real stability is severely obstructed by entrenched political pursuits.
For Iraq to realize stability, it should urgently strengthen its institutional frameworks and clearly set up a separation of powers. But, many political events appear extra targeted on sustaining management over profitable state sources than on implementing the significant reforms the nation desperately wants. The result’s a governance mannequin struggling to face agency amid the crosscurrents of competing loyalties and energy grabs.
Washington’s play
To realize these high-stakes objectives, Trump has bypassed conventional diplomatic channels by appointing Mark Savaya because the US particular envoy to Iraq on October 19. Such an appointment indicators a shift in the direction of “deal-making” diplomacy. Savaya’s mission is to navigate the complicated political turmoil following Iraq’s parliamentary elections to steer the nation in the direction of a steady transition. His job is to bridge the hole between institutional assist and big monetary funding, appearing as a direct consultant of Trump’s business-centric overseas coverage.
Savaya is an Iraqi-born, Detroit-based businessman missing the normal diplomatic background; his expertise is rooted within the non-public sector within the hashish trade, however he gained political prominence as an energetic supporter of Trump’s marketing campaign in Michigan.
He performed a key function within the delicate negotiations that secured the discharge of Elizabeth Tsurkov, the Israeli-Russian educational and Princeton College scholar who had been kidnapped by an Iraqi militia for greater than two years.
Savaya’s communal and ethnic ties have given him important entry to Iraqi energy centres that conventional diplomats usually lack.
The Iran issue
Iraq’s place in a geopolitical tug-of-war is compounding the interior struggles, pressured to stability its crucial relationships with two giants: the US and Iran. On the one hand, Washington’s goal is obvious: it needs to bolster Iraq’s sovereignty whereas concurrently pushing again towards the dominance of highly effective, usually Iran-backed, militias. The US believes that permitting these armed teams an excessive amount of sway may go away the nation remoted and wreck its fragile financial stability.
However Iranian affect stays a formidable and enduring drive. Tehran views Iraq not simply as a neighbour but in addition as an important strategic ally for projecting its energy throughout all the area. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has been actively working to take care of unity amongst key Shia factions in Baghdad. This transfer clearly indicators Iran’s deep and enduring curiosity in shaping Iraq’s political alignment and its future path. Iraq should due to this fact navigate this high-stakes balancing act to outlive.
Savaya’s mission unfolds at a time when Iran’s regional “axis of resistance” is beneath unprecedented stress. Having already misplaced their main foothold in Syria after the autumn of the Assad regime in late 2024, and seeing Hezbollah’s political and army standing in Lebanon severely decimated by the 2025 battle with Israel, Iranian proxies now face the very actual prospect of dropping their grip on Iraq too.
In Lebanon, a brand new authorities is dedicated to regaining the state’s monopoly on using drive, leaving Hezbollah more and more remoted. This regional retreat signifies that for Tehran, sustaining affect in Baghdad is a remaining, determined stand to stay a related regional energy.
Different regional actors
The success of Trump’s gamble additionally will depend on the roles of different regional gamers. Turkiye has just lately recalibrated its technique to combine Iraq into advert hoc regional commerce and safety frameworks, successfully diluting Iran’s centrality. Concurrently, Gulf monarchies resembling Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are rising as key financial and safety companions for Baghdad, providing a substitute for reliance on Iran.
Nonetheless, these regional actors additionally carry their very own agendas — resembling Turkiye’s give attention to containing Kurdish actions — which can battle with US goals. If Savaya can efficiently align these numerous regional pursuits with Trump’s plan, he might essentially rewrite Iraq’s turbulent future.
A realist pragmatism
The “Make Iraq Nice Once more” technique displays a realistic reassertion of US pursuits inside the anarchic worldwide system, prioritising Washington’s safety and financial energy over idealistic objectives.
By appointing Savaya — an unconventional, business-oriented envoy — the Trump administration is using “transactional realism”, utilising financial diplomacy and private ties as strategic instruments to tug Iraq away from Iran’s orbit. This strategy views the US-Iran rivalry as a zero-sum recreation of energy politics, the place integrating Iraq’s armed forces beneath centralised state management is prime to restoring a state-centric order and sidelining non-state militias that at the moment feed Tehran’s regional affect.
The brand new US envoy to Iraq has made clear that “there isn’t any place for armed teams in a completely sovereign Iraq”. His calls resonated with Iraqi officers and militia leaders alike – now at the least three militias near Iran have publicly agreed to disarm. Nonetheless, different teams have but to do the identical, whereas rejecting the decision from the outset.
Nonetheless, this high-stakes try to shift the regional stability of energy faces a major “safety dilemma”, as aggressive strikes to decrease Iranian affect might set off a violent defensive response from Tehran to guard its remaining strategic belongings. Whereas the technique seeks to use a regional shift – leveraging the weakened state of Iranian proxies in Syria and Lebanon – it should deal with the “hybrid” energy of Iraqi militias and the slender self-interests of neighbouring gamers like Turkiye and the Gulf states.
The success of this gamble will depend on whether or not the US can dismantle the shadow economies that facilitate overseas interference and set up a steady, autonomous Iraqi state able to navigating the extraordinary geopolitical tug-of-war between Washington and Tehran.
The stakes for Iraq’s future
Finally, the appointment of Savaya serves because the definitive stress take a look at for Iraqi sovereignty, marking a high-stakes transition in the direction of a transactional “America First” technique geared toward “Making Iraq Nice Once more”. By making an attempt to consolidate army command beneath the state and dismantle the shadow economies fuelling Iranian affect, Savaya’s mission seeks to use the present regional weakening of Tehran’s proxies to remodel Iraq right into a steady, autonomous hub.
Nonetheless, the success of this “Nice Gamble” hinges on Savaya’s skill to beat entrenched political opposition and reconcile the presence of US forces with the demand for nationwide unity. If this unconventional diplomatic push can bridge inner divides — notably between Baghdad and the semi-autonomous Kurdish area within the north — Iraq might lastly safe a path in the direction of financial independence; in any other case, the nation dangers remaining a perpetual battleground caught within the geopolitical crossfire between Washington and Tehran.
The views expressed on this article are the writer’s personal and don’t essentially replicate Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.
