Islamabad, Pakistan – After three days, talks between Pakistan and Afghanistan in Istanbul, geared toward ending a tense and violent standoff between the South Asian neighbours, appeared to have hit a wall in Istanbul on Tuesday.
Mediated by Qatar and Türkiye, the negotiations adopted an initial round of dialogue in Doha, which produced a temporary ceasefire on October 19 after per week of combating that left dozens lifeless on either side.
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However though officers and specialists stated that “last-ditch” efforts have been anticipated to proceed to attempt to pull the 2 nations again from a full-fledged battle, the prospects of latest hostilities between them loom massive after their incapacity, thus far, to construct on the Doha truce, analysts say.
Pakistani safety officers stated that on Monday, talks went on for almost 18 hours. However they accused the Afghan delegation of adjusting its place on Islamabad’s central demand – that Kabul crack down on the Pakistan Taliban armed group, recognized by the acronym TTP. One official, chatting with Al Jazeera on situation of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the dialogue, alleged that the “directions acquired from Kabul” for the Afghan crew have been complicating negotiations.
Kabul, nevertheless, blamed the Pakistani delegation for a “lack of coordination,” claiming the Pakistani aspect was “not presenting clear arguments” and stored “leaving the negotiating desk”, Afghan media reported.
The Afghan crew is being led by the deputy minister for administrative affairs on the Ministry of Inside, Haji Najib, whereas Pakistan has not publicly disclosed its representatives.
Current cross-border attacks between the militaries of the 2 nations have killed multiple people, troops and civilians, and injured many more in each Pakistan and Afghanistan.
United States President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly sought credit score for resolving international conflicts, additionally waded in, saying he would “clear up the Afghanistan-Pakistan disaster in a short time”, whereas chatting with reporters on the sidelines of the Affiliation of Southeast Nations (ASEAN) summit in Malaysia earlier within the week.
But, any long-term settlement seems troublesome because of the two nations’ “profound mutual mistrust and conflicting priorities”, stated Baqir Sajjad Syed, a former Pakistan fellow on the Wilson Heart and a journalist who covers nationwide safety.
Syed added that their historical grievances and Pakistan’s previous interventions in Afghanistan make concessions politically dangerous for the Afghan Taliban.
“For my part, the core subject is ideological alignment. The Afghan Taliban’s dependence on TTP for coping with inner safety issues [inside Afghanistan] makes it troublesome for them to dissociate from the group, regardless of Pakistani considerations,” he advised Al Jazeera.
A fraught friendship
Traditionally, Pakistan was lengthy perceived as the first patron of the Afghan Taliban. Many in Pakistan publicly welcomed the Taliban’s return to energy in August 2021 after the withdrawal of US forces.
However relations have sharply deteriorated since, largely over the TTP, an armed group that emerged in 2007 through the US-led so-called “conflict on terror”, and which has waged an extended marketing campaign in opposition to Islamabad.
The TTP seeks the discharge of its members imprisoned in Pakistan and opposes the merger of Pakistan’s former tribal areas into its Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. Though unbiased from the Afghan Taliban, the 2 teams are ideologically aligned.
Islamabad accuses Kabul of offering sanctuary not solely to the TTP however to different teams, together with the Balochistan Liberation Military and the ISIL (ISIS) affiliate in Khorasan Province (ISKP), fees Kabul denies.
The Afghan Taliban have insisted that the TTP is a Pakistani downside, repeatedly arguing that insecurity in Pakistan is a home matter. And the Taliban have themselves lengthy considered the ISKP as enemies.
Mullah Yaqoob, Afghanistan’s defence minister who signed the ceasefire in Doha along with his Pakistani counterpart, Khawaja Asif, final week, stated in an interview on October 19 that states typically used the label “terrorism” for political ends.
“There isn’t any common or clear definition of terrorism,” he stated, including that any authorities can model its adversaries as “terrorists” for its personal agenda.
In the meantime, regional powers together with Iran, Russia, China, and several other Central Asian states have additionally urged the Taliban to remove the TTP and different armed teams allegedly working from Afghanistan.
That attraction was renewed in Moscow in early October, in consultations additionally attended by Afghan Minister of Overseas Affairs Amir Khan Muttaqi.
Rising toll, rising tensions
In latest days, a number of assaults have killed greater than two dozen Pakistani troopers, together with officers.
The yr 2024 was amongst Pakistan’s deadliest in almost a decade, with greater than 2,500 casualties recorded, and 2025 is on monitor to surpass that, analysts say.
Each civilians and safety personnel have been focused, with most assaults concentrated in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. TTP operations have elevated sharply in each frequency and depth.
“Our information present that the TTP engaged in at the very least 600 assaults in opposition to, or clashes with, safety forces up to now yr alone. Its exercise in 2025 thus far already exceeds that seen in all of 2024,” a latest Armed Battle Location & Occasion Knowledge (ACLED) report stated.
Ihsanullah Tipu Mehsud, an Islamabad-based safety analyst, says that Pakistani negotiators should recognise that ties between the Taliban and the TTP are rooted in ideology, making it exhausting for Afghanistan’s authorities to surrender on the anti-Pakistan armed group.
Journalist Sami Yousafzai, a longtime observer of Pakistan-Afghanistan relations, agreed, saying that the prospects of a détente now look more and more distant.
Each Mehsud and Yousafzai pointed to the Taliban’s historical past of sticking by allies even within the face of worldwide strain, and even navy assault.
“We have now seen this similar angle from the Afghan Taliban in 2001, when, after the 9/11 assaults, they continued to stay steadfastly with Al al-Qaeda,” Mehsud stated.
Based on Yousafzai, “the Afghan Taliban are conflict veterans, they usually can stand up to navy strain”.
Failed diplomacy?
In latest months, either side have pursued diplomacy, nudged additionally by China, which has mediated talks between them, along with Qatar and Turkiye.
But, analysts say Islamabad may quickly conclude that it has few nonmilitary choices to deal with its considerations.
Syed pointed to Pakistani Defence Minister Asif’s latest menace of an “open war” and stated that these feedback might presage focused air strikes or cross-border operations in opposition to alleged TTP sanctuaries in Afghanistan.
“That stated, mediators, notably Qatar and Turkiye, are anticipated to make a last-ditch push to revive dialogue or shift it to a different venue. There’s additionally a small risk of different nations becoming a member of in, particularly after President Trump’s newest sign of readiness to step in and de-escalate the disaster,” he stated.
Syed stated that financial incentives, together with support, in alternate for compliance with ceasefire provisions could possibly be one option to get the neighbours to keep away from a full-fledged navy battle.
It is a device Trump has utilized in latest months in different wars, together with in getting Thailand and Cambodia to cease combating after border clashes. The US president oversaw the signing of a peace deal between the Southeast Asian nations in Kuala Lumpur final weekend.
Unintended penalties
Whereas Pakistan has far superior navy capabilities, the Taliban has benefits, too, say analysts, cautioning in opposition to overconfidence on the a part of Islamabad.
Yousafzai argued that the disaster with Pakistan had helped bolster home help for the Taliban, and navy motion in opposition to it might additional elevate sympathy for the group.
“The response by the Afghan Taliban of attacking the Pakistani navy on [the] border was seen as a forceful response, rising their recognition. And even when Pakistan continues to bomb, it might find yourself killing harmless civilians, resulting in extra resentment and anti-Pakistani sentiment in [the] public and amongst [the] Afghan Taliban,” he stated.
This dynamic, in accordance with Yousafzai, must be worrying for Islamabad, notably if the Taliban’s supreme chief, Haibatullah Akhunzada, steps in.
“If Akhunzada points an edict, declaring Jihad in opposition to Pakistan, many younger Afghans might probably be a part of the ranks of [the] Taliban,” Yousafzai warned. “Even when it should imply an even bigger loss for Afghans, the scenario won’t be good for Pakistan.”
The one beneficiary, he stated, can be the TTP, which is able to really feel much more emboldened “to launch assaults in opposition to the Pakistani navy”.
