A brand new analysis be aware simply named Waymo the “Kool-Support man” of the ride-haling financial system.
And it’d depart Uber, Lyft, and Tesla enjoying catchup.
The examine, printed on March 16 by Wall Avenue analysis agency MoffettNathanson, is a 21-page exploration into how Alphabet’s self-driving automobile firm is poised to disrupt the present ride-sharing panorama because it continues to aggressively scale.
“Waymo’s incursion into the U.S. rideshare narrative reminds us of the Kool-Support commercials from our childhood,” the evaluation begins. “The Kool-Support man kicks down partitions, causes havoc, screams ‘oh yeah,’ and runs off into the following scene.”
Within the case of Waymo, it continues, “they’re kicking down the partitions of an entrenched business, wreaking terror on the multiples, after which operating off to the following metropolis announcement.”
The analysts exhibit that Waymo has amassed a significant head begin in opposition to different gamers within the autonomous automobile (AV) area, and is starting to pose a aggressive risk to Uber and Lyft, which at the moment nook the market on ride-haling in america.
In the meantime, the researchers argue, Waymo’s enlargement in a number of main cities is leaving Tesla’s self-driving efforts within the mud, casting doubt on whether or not Elon Musk’s EV firm will ever be capable to compete in an business it’s been determined to enter.
What’s subsequent for Waymo?
Waymo had an enormous yr in 2025, and MoffettNathanson’s researchers consider that the corporate’s upward trajectory is barely getting began.
In early 2025, Waymo was fully operational in 5 U.S. cities. By early 2026, the corporate had expanded its reach to lively operations in 10 U.S. cities and was testing its providers in at the very least 19 different places.
Based on MoffettNathanson’s evaluation, the corporate expanded its whole share of the ride-hailing financial system from 0.2% to 0.8% over the course of 2025, reaching a complete of 450,000 weekly rides by the top of the yr.
Whereas these numbers are nonetheless comparatively small, they forecast an upcoming shift within the business as driverless tech expands.
MoffettNathanson predicts that Waymo’s whole rides will develop by over 100% in 2026 to 34 million, in keeping with the corporate’s acknowledged objective to finish 2025 with a fee of 1 million journeys per week.
If these estimates show correct, Waymo might snag 1.2% of the rideshare market by the top of 2026 and 4% by the top of 2028—an outlook that MoffettNathanson’s analysts say they “don’t contemplate to be overly optimistic.”
What this implies for Uber and Lyft
Waymo’s projected enlargement leaves opponents like Uber and Lyft in a little bit of a difficult place.
Waymo and Uber have partnered collectively to deliver Waymo’s robo-taxi providers to Austin, Atlanta, and Phoenix. MoffettNathanson notes that the partnership has been promising, however the researchers mentioned “we’d be shocked” if it have been to maintain increasing, given Waymo’s head begin in self-driving and its success in San Francisco.
Primarily, Waymo is in a novel place as one of many solely present gamers within the AV business that’s scaling broadly (apart, maybe, from Amazon’s Zoox, which is rising on a a lot smaller scale), leaving Uber with restricted chips to cut price with.
Additional, MoffettNathanson’s evaluation notes that Waymo introduced its plans to independently take a look at in new places.
The place Tesla stands within the AV race
In the meantime, MoffettNathanson’s evaluation basically writes Tesla out of the AV ride-share competitors.
Tesla first launched its own robotaxi services in Austin in June 2025 and within the San Francisco Bay Space in July.
For years, CEO Elon Musk has been touting the corporate’s autonomous driving objectives as an inevitable future—and people objectives grew to become much more necessary to the corporate amidst a catastrophically difficult year for Tesla in 2025 and Waymo’s increasing success available in the market.
Nonetheless, as Fast Company has reported, Tesla’s robo-taxi aspirations at the moment appear extra like a pipe dream than a actuality. Whereas Waymo operates driverless autos in a number of main cities, nearly all of Tesla’s first robo-taxis launched with human drivers on the wheel, presumably as an added security measure.
“We acknowledge the potential of the corporate’s [full self-driving] expertise, however till Tesla is persistently working at scale with out a human within the automobile and with out accident charges above people, we consider robotaxi’s market share influence will likely be restricted,” MoffettNathanson’s evaluation reads.
