Russia completed 2025 with what Ukraine described as an data operation designed to keep away from partaking in peace talks and proceed its warfare, regardless of struggling staggering casualties for meagre territorial features this yr.
On Monday, December 29, Russian Overseas Minister Sergey Lavrov accused Ukraine of attempting to assassinate Russian President Vladimir Putin at his residence at Lake Valdai, 140km (87 miles) northeast of Moscow.
“The Kyiv regime launched a terrorist assault utilizing 91 long-range unmanned aerial autos (UAVs) on the state residence of the president of the Russian Federation within the Novgorod Area. All of the UAVs have been destroyed by the air defence programs of the Russian Armed Forces,” mentioned Lavrov in a press release.
He didn’t say whether or not Putin was in residence on the time.
Lavrov’s Ukrainian counterpart, Andrii Sybiha, shortly dismissed the claim. “Nearly a day handed and Russia nonetheless hasn’t offered any believable proof to its accusations of Ukraine’s alleged ‘assault on Putin’s residence’. And so they received’t. As a result of there’s none. No such assault occurred,” Sybiha mentioned.
Russia produced images of drone particles mendacity within the snow two days later, however the drone’s location, manufacture and the time of its downing couldn’t be corroborated from them.
“The assault on Putin’s Valdai residence is presumably a Kremlin pretend,” wrote the opposition outlet Sota. “Residents of Valdai, the place Putin’s ‘Dinner’ residence is situated, advised Sota that final night time they didn’t hear the work of the air defence, which might have shot down 91 drones.”
Sota additionally identified that drones attacking Valdai “essentially cross a specifically protected airspace with objects of the Strategic Missile Forces, East Kazakhstan area, navy aviation, closed administrative items reminiscent of Solnechny, Lake, and many others.
“A drone crossing the territory of those amenities can fly to the Dinner residence solely by miracle,” Sota mentioned.
Lavrov’s declare additionally appeared at odds with an earlier announcement from the Russian Ministry of Defence that solely 41 drones had been downed within the Novgorod area on the night time of December 28-29.
Russia’s Defence Ministry later issued an replace, saying one other 49 drones had been shot down over Bryansk and one over Smolensk “flying within the course of Novgorod area”.
Ukraine observers identified that Bryansk and Smolensk are a whole bunch of kilometres from Valdai.
The Institute for the Research of Warfare (ISW), a Washington-based suppose tank, said that not one of the traditional proof of Ukrainian strikes accompanied the alleged assault, reminiscent of footage, warmth signatures, statements from native officers, or native media reviews.
For instance, a profitable Ukrainian assault towards an oil depot in Rybinsk on December 31 was well-documented on social media. So was an assault on the Novoshakhtinsk refinery in Rostov per week earlier, in addition to quite a lot of different strikes through the week.
What actually occurred?
Information of the alleged assault got here a day after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy concluded profitable talks with United States President Donald Trump in Florida, garnering a promise that US forces would take part in Ukraine’s safety following any peace settlement with Russia.
It was the primary time the US had agreed to such safety ensures, and it appeared to make Polish Premier Donald Tusk optimistic that the warfare in Ukraine may finish early in 2026.
“Peace is on the horizon,” he advised a cupboard assembly on Tuesday.
“The important thing results of latest days is the American declaration… (of) willingness to take part in safety ensures for Ukraine after a peace settlement, together with the presence of American troops, for instance, on the border or on the road of contact between Ukraine and Russia,” Tusk mentioned.
Zelenskyy mentioned Ukraine’s allies, referred to as the Coalition of the Prepared, have been scheduled to satisfy in Kyiv on January 3 and in France three days later.
Lavrov’s announcement solid a pall on this optimism when he mentioned, “Russia’s negotiating place will probably be reviewed.” On the identical day, Putin ordered his forces in southern Ukraine to proceed efforts to grab the unoccupied the rest of the southern Ukrainian area of Zaporizhia. Moscow controls three-quarters of the area.
Zelenskyy mentioned Russia was “on the lookout for a pretext” to escalate hostilities and keep away from partaking in peace talks, following his profitable assembly with Trump.
“Russia is at it once more, utilizing harmful statements to undermine all achievements of our shared diplomatic efforts with President Trump’s group,” he wrote on social media.
Russia has repeatedly dashed Trump’s hopes for peace, refusing to cede occupied territory or to just accept US and European forces on Ukrainian soil.
But Trump appeared to imagine Moscow’s allegations.
“I don’t prefer it. It’s not good,” Trump advised reporters on Monday. “It’s one factor to be offensive… It’s one other factor to assault his home. It’s not the proper time to do any of that. And I realized about it from President Putin at this time. I used to be very indignant about it.”
Different US officers weren’t satisfied. US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker expressed scepticism, telling an interviewer on Monday, “It’s unclear whether or not it really occurred.” On Wednesday, the Wall Road Journal reported that US intelligence had decided that Ukraine didn’t goal Putin’s residence.
Moscow’s messaging appeared to bookend Zelenskyy’s assembly with Trump, concentrating on the US president.
Putin held staged conferences along with his Basic Employees on Saturday, December 27, and Monday, simply earlier than and after Zelenskyy’s assembly with Trump, throughout which commander-in-chief Valery Gerasimov broadcast exaggerated claims of success.
He mentioned Russian forces had occupied 6,640 sq. kilometres (2,564 sq. miles) of Ukrainian territory and seized 334 Ukrainian settlements in 2025. The ISW mentioned it had “noticed proof indicating a Russian presence in 4,952 sq. kilometres (1912 sq miles)” and 245 settlements.
Ukrainian commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskii mentioned territory amounting to 0.8 % of Ukraine’s 603,550sq km (233,032sq miles) had been misplaced. at the price of virtually 420,000 useless and wounded Russians.
Ukraine’s Basic Employees estimated whole Russian casualties for the warfare at greater than 1.2 million, virtually 11,500 tanks and 24,000 armoured combating autos, greater than 37,000 artillery programs, 781 plane and properly in extra of 4,000 missiles.
By the tip of 2025, Russian forces had nonetheless not taken Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, the japanese Ukrainian cities in Donetsk that they’d been combating to seize for 5 months. They held 55 % of Hulyaipole within the southern Zaporizhia area, regardless of claiming to have seized it. Even Russian navy reporters admitted Russian forces have been being squeezed out of Kupiansk within the northern Kharkiv area, regardless of claiming additionally to have seized that.
“Attributable to inaccurate reviews on the state of affairs to greater authorities, reserves that have been ‘not wanted’ for the seize and clearing of Kupiansk have been redeployed to different areas,” wrote one Kremlin-friendly outlet, citing “systematic exaggeration of successes”.
Whereas it remained uncertain whether or not Ukraine did goal Valdai, Russia’s assaults on Ukrainian cities have been documented. Over the past week of the yr, Russia launched simply greater than 1,000 drones and 33 missiles at Ukraine’s cities. Ukraine’s Air Drive mentioned it intercepted 86 % of the drones and 30 of the missiles.
