Two years in the past, nations all over the world set a goal of “transitioning away from fossil fuels in power techniques in a simply, orderly and equitable method.” The plan included tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency gains by 2030—necessary steps for slowing local weather change because the power sector makes up about 75% of the global carbon dioxide emissions which are heating up the planet.
The world is making progress: More than 90% of recent energy capability added in 2024 got here from renewable power sources, and 2025 noticed similar growth.
Nevertheless, fossil fuel production can be still expanding. And the US, the world’s leading producer of each oil and pure gasoline, is now aggressively pressuring countries to maintain shopping for and burning fossil fuels.
The power transition was not meant to be a predominant subject when world leaders and negotiators met on the 2025 United Nations climate summit, COP30, in November in Belém, Brazil. But it surely took middle stage from the begin to the very finish, bringing consideration to the real-world geopolitical power debate underway and the stakes at hand.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva started the convention by calling for the creation of a formal road map, basically a strategic course of through which nations may take part to “overcome dependence on fossil fuels.” It could take the worldwide choice to transition away from fossil fuels from phrases to motion.
Greater than 80 nations stated they supported the idea, starting from weak small island nations like Vanuatu which are shedding land and lives from sea degree rise and extra intense storms, to nations like Kenya that see enterprise alternatives in clear power, to Australia, a big fossil-fuel-producing nation.
Opposition, led by the Arab Group’s oil- and gas-producing countries, saved any point out of a “highway map” power transition plan out of the ultimate settlement from the local weather convention, however supporters are pushing forward.
I used to be in Belém for COP30, and I observe developments intently as a former particular local weather envoy and head of delegation for Germany and senior fellow at the Fletcher School at Tufts College. The struggle over whether or not there ought to even be a highway map exhibits how a lot nations that depend upon fossil fuels are working to decelerate the transition, and the way others are positioning themselves to profit from the expansion of renewables. And it’s a key space to observe in 2026.
The battle between electro-states and petro-states
Brazilian diplomat and COP30 President André Aranha Corrêa do Lago has dedicated to steer an effort in 2026 to create two road maps: one on halting and reversing deforestation and one other on transitioning away from fossil fuels in power techniques in a simply, orderly, and equitable method.
What these highway maps will seem like remains to be unclear. They’re prone to be centered on a course of for nations to debate and debate the best way to reverse deforestation and part out fossil fuels.
Over the approaching months, Corrêa plans to convene high-level conferences amongst world leaders, together with fossil gas producers and customers, worldwide organizations, industries, employees, students and advocacy teams.
For the highway map to each be accepted and be helpful, the method might want to tackle the worldwide market problems with provide and demand, in addition to fairness. For instance, in some fossil fuel-producing nations, oil, gas or coal revenues are the main source of income. What can the highway forward seem like for these nations that might want to diversify their economies?
Nigeria is an interesting case study for weighing that query.
Oil exports persistently present the majority of Nigeria’s income, accounting for round 80% to over 90% of complete authorities income and overseas change earnings. On the identical time, roughly 39% of Nigeria’s population has no entry to electrical energy, which is the best proportion of individuals with out electrical energy of any nation. And Nigeria possesses ample renewable power assets throughout the nation, that are largely untapped: photo voltaic, hydro, geothermal and wind, offering new alternatives.
What a highway map would possibly seem like
In Belém, representatives talked about making a highway map that may be science-based and aligned with the Paris climate agreement, and would come with numerous pathways to realize a simply transition for fossil-fuel-dependent areas.
Some inspiration for serving to fossil-fuel-producing nations transition to cleaner power may come from Brazil and Norway.
In Brazil, Lula requested his ministries to organize tips for developing a road map for steadily decreasing Brazil’s dependency on fossil fuels and discover a solution to financially help the adjustments.
His decree particularly mentions creating an power transition fund, which might be supported by authorities revenues from oil and gasoline exploration. Whereas Brazil helps transferring away from fossil fuels, it is usually nonetheless a large oil producer and just lately approved new exploratory drilling close to the mouth of the Amazon River.
Norway, a significant oil and gasoline producer, is establishing a formal transition commission to check and plan its financial system’s shift away from fossil fuels, notably specializing in how the workforce and the pure assets of Norway can be utilized extra successfully to create new and completely different jobs.
Each nations are simply getting began, however their work may assist level the way in which for different nations and inform a worldwide highway map course of.
The European Union has carried out a sequence of insurance policies and legal guidelines geared toward reducing fossil fuel demand. It has a target for 42.5% of its energy to come from renewable sources by 2030. And its EU Emissions Trading System, which steadily reduces the emissions that corporations can emit, will quickly be expanded to cowl housing and transportation. The Emissions Buying and selling System already consists of energy era, energy-intensive business, and civil aviation.
Fossil gas and renewable power development forward
Within the U.S., the Trump administration has made clear through its policymaking and diplomacy that it’s pursuing the alternative method: to maintain fossil fuels as the primary power supply for many years to come back.
The Worldwide Power Company nonetheless expects to see renewable power grow faster than any other major energy source in all eventualities going ahead, as renewable power’s decrease prices make it a sexy possibility in lots of nations. Globally, the company expects funding in renewable power in 2025 to be twice that of fossil fuels.
On the identical time, nevertheless, fossil gas investments are additionally rising with fast-growing power demand.
The IEA’s World Power Outlook described a surge in new funding for liquefied pure gasoline, or LNG, tasks in 2025. It now expects a 50% increase in global LNG supply by 2030, about half of that from the U.S. Nevertheless, the World Power Outlook notes that “questions nonetheless linger about the place all the brand new LNG will go” as soon as it’s produced.
What to observe for
The Belém highway map dialogue and the way it balances nations’ wants will mirror on the world’s capability to deal with local weather change.
Corrêa plans to report on its progress on the subsequent annual U.N. local weather convention, COP31, in late 2026. The convention will likely be hosted by Turkey, however Australia, which supported the decision for a highway map, will likely be leading the negotiations.
With extra time to debate and put together, COP31 may deliver a transition away from fossil fuels again into the worldwide negotiations.
Jennifer Morgan is a senior fellow on the Middle for Worldwide Setting and Useful resource Coverage and Local weather Coverage Lab at Tufts University.
This text is republished from The Conversation underneath a Inventive Commons license. Learn the original article.
