Kampala, Uganda – When Bobi Wine, a singer-turned-politician whose actual identify is Robert Kyagulanyi, launched his marketing campaign to grow to be Uganda’s subsequent president in October, he appeared in tailor-made fits, greeting crowds with a well-known smile.
The temper, a minimum of at first, felt cautiously hopeful.
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However by December, that picture had disappeared.
As campaigning involves an finish on Tuesday, Bobi Wine, who’s the principle opposition candidate seeking to unseat long-serving President Yoweri Museveni, now solely seems in public carrying a bulletproof vest and helmet.
For a lot of Ugandans, his change in apparel – and the state violence that led to it – are symbols of a foregone political final result: An incumbent victory prone to be rejected by his opponents.
Since he was cleared to run within the election in September, Bobi Wine’s marketing campaign convoy has ceaselessly been met with tear fuel, roadblocks and arrests of supporters. Marketing campaign occasions are often disrupted, with individuals abruptly dispersing and roads sealed off.
Whereas the violence has not reached the lethal ranges of the 2021 election, when greater than 50 individuals had been killed and lots of of Bobi Wine supporters had been detained following spontaneous protests within the capital, Kampala, the marketing campaign surroundings has grow to be more and more militarised – outlined by calculated repression, intimidation and a steadily shrinking area for Bobi Wine to promote his manifesto, analysts have noticed.
Bobi Wine, 43, is contesting for a second time in Thursday’s election after he completed because the runner-up within the 2021 polls.
Museveni won that final disputed vote throughout which Bobi Wine alleged fraud and urged residents to reject the end result. The 81-year-old incumbent has dominated the nation for practically 4 a long time after capturing energy following a insurgent conflict, and is searching for a seventh time period in workplace.
5 different candidates are additionally on this yr’s race, during which 21.6 million registered voters are anticipated to forged their votes.
A local weather of worry
Even earlier than campaigning formally started, Bobi Wine’s workforce anticipated violence.
Museveni’s son, Muhoozi Kainerugaba – who serves as Uganda’s military chief – had publicly threatened Bobi Wine within the months resulting in the marketing campaign season, together with remarks about beheading him.
Kainerugaba additionally claimed duty for the kidnapping and torture of Bobi Wine’s bodyguard, Edward Ssebuufu, who stays in detention.
Opposition officers say that whereas the worst of Kainerugaba’s threats haven’t materialised, the state, fearing the large viewers Bobi Wine was attracting, determined to unleash violence on him in the course of the election marketing campaign.
“When it comes to violence, we noticed that the primary month [October] was a bit not so violent, however after that it turned violent and chaotic,” David Lewis Rubonyoya, secretary-general of Nationwide Unity Platform (NUP), the get together Bobi Wine leads, advised Al Jazeera.
Throughout a marketing campaign cease in Gulu, northern Uganda, in December, Bobi Wine was attacked by safety forces and plainclothes people armed with sticks. He and several other of his aides had been crushed, and marketing campaign tools was vandalised. One individual later died following the incident. In a separate incident in Mbarara, western Uganda, in November, police arrested 43 Bobi Wine supporters after a confrontation over marketing campaign routes. They continue to be in detention.
Throughout the 2021 election interval, the protests and lethal police crackdown had been prompted by Bobi Wine’s arrest for allegedly flaunting COVID-19 pointers. This yr, though the violence has thus far been muted, opposition figures and analysts insist the repression isn’t any much less extreme – solely extra managed.
Michael Mutyaba, a Ugandan political analyst and a doctoral researcher at SOAS College of London, says the distinction lies in technique.
“In 2021 and earlier than, safety companies had been in panic mode. There was state violence that was much less calculated. The violence now seems to be extra calculated and expanded,” he advised Al Jazeera. He pointed to arrests of random individuals, like a Catholic priest charged with cash laundering, as examples. The federal government additionally arrested Sarah Birete, a outstanding human rights activist and critic, who will solely be launched after the election.
Voter and candidate ‘bribery’
Bobi Wine, too, has confronted elevated onslaught from the state, with candidates sponsored by his get together to face in parliamentary elections coming below explicit pressure. Lots of the focused candidates standing within the parliamentary polls, additionally being held on Thursday, have withdrawn their candidacies, publicly denounced Bobi Wine, and joined the governing get together.
Most of those defections, managed by parliament’s deputy speaker, Thomas Tayebwa, have occurred every day however primarily exterior the central area, which is taken into account Bobi Wine’s stronghold. Bobi Wine has claimed that these candidates had been bribed, whereas the state maintains that they joined the governing get together freely and with out circumstances.
Yusuf Serunkuma, a political analyst primarily based at Kampala’s Makerere College, stated he isn’t stunned by the “regime’s” techniques.
“That is a part of transactional politics,” he advised Al Jazeera. However he added that if the opposition had the capability to purchase candidates from the governing get together, they too can be doing it every day.
One other technique the state has used to get rid of candidates sponsored by Bobi Wine’s get together has been by means of disqualification by the Electoral Fee, which has argued that some candidates failed to satisfy nomination necessities. Jude Byamukama, a Ugandan constitutional lawyer, says the cancellations have been “ridiculous”, as critics say they’re techniques deployed to halt the opposition.
“They [Electoral Commission] had been making an attempt to create unopposed candidates in a number of constituencies with no lawful foundation,” Byamukama advised Al Jazeera. He added that after disqualification, the fee then made it tough for candidates to attraction to the courts by failing to serve them the selections on time.
Months earlier than the election season, Museveni additionally launched a softer offensive, notably focusing on casual sector gamers in Bobi Wine’s strongholds in central Uganda. There, the president has distributed tens of millions of {dollars} in money to teams reminiscent of bike riders, taxi drivers, salon operators and avenue distributors. Mwambutsya Ndebesa, a retired historian from Makerere College, describes this as “electoral corruption” meant to affect voters, whereas Serunkuma stated “vote shopping for” is regular in Ugandan politics, however this time, it’s been extra organised.
Fears the worst is but to come back
As election day approaches on Thursday, Bobi Wine has warned that the state plans to arrest him and abduct key organisers who would play a job in monitoring polling stations.
He has issued recommendation to supporters: Disable cellphone location providers, keep away from predictable routes, restrict time spent in a single place, and flee if adopted by unfamiliar automobiles or bikes – just like the Toyota Hiace generally related to state abductions.
“I’m conscious of a plot by the determined regime to have me arrested earlier than polling day,” he not too long ago stated on social media.
One other flashpoint looms over election day itself: Whether or not voters ought to stay close to polling stations after voting to “defend the vote”, as Bobi Wine has urged.
Ugandan legislation permits voters to stay a minimum of 20 metres (66ft) away from polling stations, however the Electoral Fee and safety companies have suggested individuals to go away instantly after voting.
The Electoral Fee has framed the problem as certainly one of self-discipline slightly than legality, warning that crowds may provoke dysfunction.
Ugandans need peace
Regardless of the tense environment amongst political gamers, Ugandans say they need peace – no matter political affiliation.
Wanyama Isaac, an off-the-cuff building employee in Kampala and a Bobi Wine supporter, says elections shouldn’t descend into violence.
“Violence helps nobody. It’s the duty of either side to stay calm,” he stated.
Mashabe Alex, a boda boda rider who helps Museveni, agrees.
“Violence destroys companies and lives, as we noticed in 2021.”
He says the opposition shouldn’t threaten Museveni supporters like himself.
An unsure endgame
Bobi Wine’s camp has not disclosed its post-election technique. However Museveni has been warning his competitor’s supporters to not dare confront safety companies.
“I’ve heard Bobi Wine say that troopers and police are few whereas rioters are many. I counsel you to not imagine him. Each soldier and police officer has a gun with 120 bullets,” Museveni warned in December.
The navy already has troopers in infantry mobility automobiles in Kampala, an opposition stronghold.
Rubongoya of the NUP argues that the Electoral Fee can not declare an opposition candidate a winner in Uganda with out strain from the general public.
“If Ugandans vote in giant numbers and peacefully demand their victory, the Electoral Fee will likely be pushed to announce the correct candidate,” he stated.
“Our ideology is individuals energy. If persons are decided, intimidation and cash won’t cease them,” he added.
Nevertheless, Rubongoya acknowledged that reminiscences of the 2020–2021 election violence nonetheless hang-out many Ugandans. He warned that any try and protest may very well be met with deadly pressure.
Serunkuma argues that the opposition signed up for an electoral course of that was rigged from the beginning, and that they know they’ll by no means win, suggesting that their goal might not be unseating Museveni himself.
Relatively, he says events like that of Bobi Wine need to “consolidate themselves below Museveni” by, as an illustration, retaining positions they maintain in parliament.
Mutyaba predicts that after the election outcomes are introduced, Bobi Wine will doubtless be positioned below home arrest – a tactic the state has used repeatedly since 2011. His get together will subject statements dismissing the election outcomes, and that can doubtless be the top.
“It’s unattainable to organise protests below the present circumstances,” Mutyaba stated. “The dynamics should not of their favour. The one hope is that, in some unspecified time in the future throughout Museveni’s subsequent time period, an incident may set off an rebellion. However that won’t occur subsequent week.”
