United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Russian Overseas Minister Sergey Lavrov for a second time in two days on Friday, with the conflict in Ukraine the focus of their huddle. That they had met for 50 minutes on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in Malaysia on Thursday.
Whereas campaigning for re-election, US President Donald Trump had promised to finish the conflict in Ukraine inside 24 hours of taking workplace.
However greater than 4 months later, the prospects of a ceasefire seem as distant as ever, with Russia launching a fierce bombardment of Ukraine in latest days.
After the Thursday assembly, Rubio informed reporters that Trump was “disillusioned and pissed off that there’s not been extra flexibility on the Russian facet” to convey an finish to the war in Ukraine.
So has Trump’s view of the conflict modified – and what are his subsequent choices?
Has Trump’s place on Russia shifted?
Rubio’s feedback come at a time when Trump has more and more been publicly essential of Putin, after beforehand accusing Ukraine of not wanting peace.
“We get a number of b******t thrown at us by Putin. He’s very good on a regular basis, however it seems to be meaningless,” Trump stated on Tuesday.
Since February, the US has held separate talks with Russia and Ukraine, and brokered direct talks between them in Might in Istanbul for the primary time because the early months of Russia’s full-fledged invasion in 2022.
However whereas Putin has supplied temporary pauses in preventing, he has not accepted the US proposal for an unconditional 30-day ceasefire. Ukraine has accepted that proposal. Russia argues that Ukraine might use the truce to remobilise troops and rearm itself.
When requested by reporters this week whether or not he would act on his frustration with Putin, Trump responded: “I wouldn’t be telling you. Don’t we wish to have a bit of shock?”
Nevertheless, consultants warning towards concluding that Trump was able to act powerful towards Russia.
“Western media is stuffed with commentary on what it calls Trump‘s ‘altering stance’ on Putin. However as but, there isn’t any motive to suppose that something has modified in any respect,” Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow on the London-based Chatham Home suppose tank, informed Al Jazeera.
“There’s a wave of optimism internationally that this would possibly lastly result in a change in US coverage. However, on each earlier event, this has not occurred.”
Certainly, after the Thursday assembly between Rubio and Lavrov, each side steered that they had been prepared to proceed to interact diplomatically.
Arming Ukraine to battle off Russia
In early July, the Trump administration introduced a choice to “pause” arms provide to Kyiv. Per week later, he reversed this determination.
“We’re going to ship some extra weapons. Now we have to. They’ve to have the ability to defend themselves. They’re getting hit very onerous now,” stated Trump on July 8.
On Thursday, Trump informed NBC that these weapons could be offered to NATO, which pays totally for them. NATO will then move them on to Ukraine.
“We’re sending weapons to NATO, and NATO is paying for these weapons, one hundred percent,” Trump informed NBC, including that the US might be sending Patriot missiles to the alliance.
Trump stated this deal was agreed on through the NATO summit in The Hague in June.
Trump had additionally frozen support to Ukraine in February, after a falling out with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy following a rancorous assembly within the White Home. Trump accused Zelenskyy of speaking the US into “spending $350 Billion {Dollars}, to enter a Struggle that couldn’t be received”.
Trump resumed the provides weeks later. Between January 2022 and April 2025, the US has supplied Ukraine with about $134bn in support, based on the Kiel Institute for the World Economic system.
Trump’s MAGA [Make America Great Again] base has been essential of the funding that the US gives Ukraine.
Following Trump’s announcement that the US will resume sending weapons to Ukraine, a number of conservative Individuals have responded with disappointment.
“I didn’t vote for this,” wrote Derrick Evans on X on July 8. Evans was one in all Trump’s supporters who stormed the US Capitol on January 6, 2021 and was arrested, to be pardoned by Trump in January this yr.
Conservative social media duo Keith and Kevin Hodge wrote on X on July 8: “Who within the hell is telling Trump that we have to ship extra weapons to Ukraine?”
Sanctioning Russia
When requested on July 8 about his curiosity in a Congress invoice proposing extra sanctions on Russia, Trump responded, “I’m it very strongly.”
Because the conflict in Ukraine began in 2022, the US and its allies have imposed not less than 21,692 sanctions on Russian people, media organisations, and establishments throughout sectors such because the navy, vitality, aviation, shipbuilding and telecommunications.
Nevertheless, whereas these sanctions have hit Russia’s economic system, it has not collapsed the way in which some consultants had predicted it will within the early months of the conflict.
In latest months, Zelenskyy has repeatedly requested his allies within the West to tighten sanctions on Russia, to place stress on Putin to finish the conflict.
Most not too long ago, Zelenskyy posted on X on Friday following a Russian drone assault in Kharkiv: “Sanctions should be strengthened. We predict the adoption of a brand new sanctions bundle. All the things that may put stress on Russia and cease it should be applied as shortly as potential.”
A bipartisan Senate invoice sponsored by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham goals to levy tariffs on nations that import oil, fuel and uranium from Russia.
In 2023, crude petroleum, petroleum fuel and refined petroleum constituted practically 54 p.c of whole Russian exports, based on the Observatory of Financial Complexity (OEC).
In accordance with the OEC, China and India purchase a bulk of Russia’s oil and fuel merchandise.
In 2024, Russian oil accounted for 35 p.c of India’s whole crude imports and 19 p.c of China’s oil imports. Turkiye additionally imports Russian oil, with as a lot as 58 p.c of its refined petroleum imports sourced from Russia in 2023.
However the West has not weaned itself off Russia, both.
In 2024, European nations paid greater than $700m to purchase Russian uranium merchandise, based on an evaluation by Brussels-based suppose tank Bruegel, based mostly on information from the European Union’s statistical workplace, Eurostat.
In late March this yr, Trump expressed anger with Putin and threatened “secondary tariffs” on any nation that buys Russian oil if a ceasefire deal will not be reached, however these tariffs weren’t imposed.
“If a brand new sanctions invoice does move, and america does impose prices on Moscow for the primary time through the present administration, this may be a radical departure from Trump’s constant coverage,” Giles stated.
“It stays to be seen whether or not Trump will the truth is permit this, or whether or not his deference to Putin will imply he continues to withstand any potential countermeasures towards Moscow.”
Strolling away from the battle
On April 18, US Secretary of State Rubio stated his nation would possibly “transfer on” from the Russia-Ukraine conflict if a ceasefire deal will not be brokered.
“We are actually reaching a degree the place we have to resolve whether or not that is even potential or not,” Rubio informed reporters in Paris after talks between American, Ukrainian and European officers.
“As a result of if it’s not, then I believe we’re simply going to maneuver on. It’s not our conflict. Now we have different priorities to give attention to,” Rubio continued.
On the identical day, Trump echoed Rubio’s statements to reporters. Nevertheless, Trump didn’t say that he’s able to stroll away from peace negotiations.
“Nicely, I don’t wish to say that, however we wish to see it finish,” Trump stated.
Extra diplomacy
The second day of talks between Rubio and Lavrov, nonetheless, means that the US has not given up on diplomacy but.
Rubio informed reporters on Thursday that the US and Russia have exchanged new concepts for peace in Ukraine. “I believe it’s a brand new and a special method,” Rubio stated, with out providing any particulars of what the “new method” concerned.
“I wouldn’t characterise it as one thing that ensures a peace, however it’s an idea that, you understand, that I’ll take again to the president,” Rubio added.
Following Rubio and Lavrov’s assembly on Thursday, the Russian Ministry of Overseas Affairs stated in a information launch that the US and Russia had “a substantive and frank change of views on the settlement in Ukraine” and can proceed constructive dialogue.
The assertion added: “[Russia and the US] have reaffirmed mutual dedication to looking for peaceable options to battle conditions and resuming Russian-US financial and humanitarian cooperation.”
