From 2009, after I began writing about FIRE, till now, the FIRE motion has had an ideal run. It was born out of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, when a whole bunch of hundreds of individuals had been shedding their jobs.
With a purpose to deal with the sudden disruption to their financial livelihoods, the idea of FIRE was embraced as each clarification and aspiration. As a substitute of admitting you bought laid off, you can out of the blue inform your loved ones, pals, and colleagues that you just determined to “retire early” as an alternative and stay the free life.
Not solely did FIRE turn into an ideal protect for the ego, it additionally gave us a greater excuse to get off the company treadmill and keep off. In spite of everything, survey after survey exhibits that almost all staff are disengaged or disinterested at work.
After all, as soon as the financial system began stabilizing by 2010 and taking off in 2012, many of those early retirees logically went again to work. Jobs grew to become plentiful once more, and the short-term unemployment interval of FIRE was over for a whole bunch of hundreds.
The Development of the FIRE Motion Continued From 2012–2021
However that intense three-year interval of FIRE from 2009–2012 actually started to unfold the thought of what was attainable.
As a substitute of working for 40+ consecutive years, possibly we might take mini-retirements to present ourselves the occasional break.
Perhaps we might take a number of years off to look after a new child earlier than preschool with out fully jeopardizing our careers.
Or possibly, simply possibly, we might exit the company world for good and discover extra attention-grabbing methods to earn cash, really feel productive, and expertise larger freedom.
Life-style design and changing into a digital nomad grew to become a factor.
Because of this, the FIRE motion steadily grew worldwide, culminating as soon as once more in peak FIRE when COVID lockdowns started in March 2020. Thousands and thousands of individuals had been trapped at dwelling, questioning what they had been going to do with their lives. Most uncertainty reappeared as in-person companies floor to a halt.
If life was this precarious, then possibly it was time to actually stay as soon as we had been free once more. The YOLO economy got here to life as individuals stopped placing their goals on maintain by 2022.
COVID was one other main catalyst for FIRE.
However Then the FIRE Motion Petered Out Once more
From 2021 by way of 2024, the FIRE motion started shedding momentum. The one silver lining of COVID was the widespread acceptance of distant work. As soon as the world realized enterprise might nonetheless be carried out effectively and profitably from dwelling, the work fashion caught, even after COVID ended.
Loads of high-paying jobs not required going into the workplace. For a number of years, tens of millions of information employees loved far larger flexibility: working errands, taking good care of their youngsters, exercising mid-day, and easily residing extra balanced lives.
For instance, I used to be enjoying pickleball for hours on weekday late mornings with staff from Google, Uber, and Meta who had been working remotely. They informed me they’d versatile hours and would simply end their work later within the night.
I began questioning what the purpose was of sacrificing a lot to retire early when you can receives a commission massive bucks to play throughout the day. Signal me up.
If Goldman Sachs and Credit score Suisse had let me work at home even simply two days every week, I’m positive I might have labored 18 years in banking as an alternative of simply 13. Eighteen years, or till age 40, was my unique purpose after I joined the trade in 1999.
I Gave Work From Residence a Go – And It Was Nice
On condition that I attempt to act constantly with my beliefs, I went again to work in November 2023, consulting 25 hours every week for a fintech startup. I needed to expertise what it was prefer to work with a lot flexibility.
I’ve to confess, getting paid to work at home was superior. Going into the workplace as soon as every week for 3 hours was truly enjoyable.
The expertise confirmed me that FIRE was becoming obsolete for many individuals who disliked commuting and touring to satisfy shoppers. As soon as these burdens had been eradicated, work grew to become way more fulfilling.
Sadly, I tousled a great factor as a result of I couldn’t tolerate being informed what to do in my craft after 14 years of 100% writing freedom. Most individuals who’ve by no means FIRE’d might in all probability comply with orders with out concern. I couldn’t. So I left after four months. It was simply as nicely, as a yr later, the corporate was acquired by one other fintech agency for a modest quantity.
So long as work at home appeared right here to remain, the FIRE motion would possible proceed shedding momentum.
The Robust Return of FIRE As a result of AI and In-Workplace Mandates
Sadly, nothing good lasts eternally.
Beginning across the starting of 2024, massive corporations reminiscent of JP Morgan, Meta and Google started encouraging employees to return to the workplace as soon as every week. Then it grew to become two days every week. Then three days every week in 2025.
Now in 2026, most massive corporations require staff to return in 5 days every week. With COVID lengthy over and a whole bunch of billions of {dollars} being spent on AI, administration believes it’s crucial to get one hundred pc of the workforce absolutely engaged in particular person once more.
Not solely are these firms spending fortunes on AI, AI can also be attacking their core enterprise fashions, e.g. Google’s search enterprise. Firms have carried out mass layoffs as a consequence of overhiring throughout COVID. However they’ve additionally reduce roles as a result of AI has created large productiveness beneficial properties, making hundreds of staff redundant.
It’s no time to fiddle.
Given the surge in AI adoption and office tightening, I’m formally declaring that the FIRE motion is again in 2026, and extra related than ever.
If AI compresses wages and eliminates roles, then possession and savings become even more critical.
For your loved ones’s monetary well-being, I problem you to undertake fundamental FIRE rules this yr and yearly till you attain monetary independence.
Comply with Fundamental FIRE Rules for Survival
For those who don’t need to be trapped in a permanent underclass, you need to embrace FIRE with all the things you’ve obtained earlier than it is too late. You might have at most 10 years to construct sufficient wealth and livable passive revenue to outlive and not using a day job.
Take these rules critically:
- Save 50 % of your revenue or extra. Which will imply saving one whole paycheck if you’re paid biweekly.
- Max out tax-advantaged retirement accounts reminiscent of your 401(k), IRA, SEP-IRA, Solo 401(okay), or Roth IRA.
- Aggressively construct up taxable brokerage accounts, ideally making them not less than twice as massive as your tax-advantaged accounts for flexibility.
- Construct an emergency fund equal to 12 months of regular residing bills.
- Lower pointless bills reminiscent of unused subscriptions, extra clothes purchases, and memberships you not often use.
- Promote objects you haven’t utilized in six months to declutter and lift capital.
- Spend money on income-generating belongings reminiscent of dividend shares, rental properties, private real estate, or small companies to construct passive income.
- Begin a side hustle to diversify your revenue streams.
- Be taught to be humble and settle for that nothing good or dangerous lasts eternally.
Get snug residing lean now so you aren’t compelled into it later. In case you are laid off, the impression might be far much less extreme since you’ve constructed monetary buffers.
The Worst-Case State of affairs Is Not Simply Unemployment
Some individuals mistakenly imagine the worst-case state of affairs is shedding your job to AI and by no means discovering a comparable-paying function once more. That might be painful, however it’s not the worst case.
The true worst-case state of affairs is shedding your job and struggling a serious decline in your investments on the similar time. This one-two punch would possibly power you to promote close to the underside. For those who promote out of necessity, it’s possible you’ll by no means get better.
In the course of the 2008–2009 world monetary disaster, many individuals had been compelled to short-sell or foreclose on their houses after values declined 15 – 50 %. They misplaced their jobs, their credit score scores had been broken for years, and so they had no capital to take a position when belongings had been on sale. Nor might they borrow to reenter the housing market.
Dropping all the things after which lacking the next 16+ yr restoration creates a everlasting underclass. That state of affairs might simply occur once more if a severe bear market hits and speculative belongings get worn out.
We’re already seeing AI disrupt the publishing trade, film trade, software program trade, search trade, and online game trade. It is just a matter of time earlier than it reaches yours. And when it does, your organization’s share worth might decline sharply and mass layoffs will comply with.
The query shouldn’t be whether or not disruption is coming. The query is whether or not you may be financially ready when it arrives.
FIRE Retains You Protected
FIRE is foundational to safety. The longer you reside, the extra good and dangerous issues will occur to you. The purpose is to realize FIRE earlier than one thing actually dangerous destroys your livelihood.
The trendy-day FIRE motion was born out of the 2008–2009 world monetary disaster. It pale considerably because the financial system rebounded. Then it got here roaring again in 2020 throughout COVID. After that, it pale once more because of versatile distant work. Now it’s again, and extra necessary than ever, because of the existential threat AI poses to billions of employees.
If I didn’t have kids, I might be far much less involved. All I would wish to do is allocate my belongings correctly to learn from the AI growth. Which means investing in AI-related firms and lowering publicity to companies most susceptible to AI disruption.
However with younger kids, it’s a very completely different ball sport. You’ll be able to see the disruption coming. They can’t.
That’s why it’s important to regulate your academic and monetary technique now in preparation for a really completely different future. One technique is to easily make a lot cash that even if you happen to implement the flawed academic plan, your kids will nonetheless be high-quality. That’s definitely one option to sleep at evening.
Nevertheless, serving to your kids develop adaptability, resilience, and dignity by way of work – to allow them to present for themselves no matter technological change – looks as if a much more admirable and sturdy purpose.
As a result of in the long run, FIRE isn’t nearly early retirement. It’s about safety. It’s about choices. And within the age of AI, optionality could be the most respected asset of all.
Reader Questions & Solutions
Readers, do you imagine FIRE is extra necessary than ever as a consequence of AI? Or has the FIRE motion by no means actually misplaced momentum since 2009? Are you adopting any FIRE rules now to guard your self?
To attain monetary freedom sooner, be a part of 60,000 others and join my free weekly newsletter. I began Monetary Samurai in 2009 and all the things is written primarily based off firsthand expertise and experience.
