Washington, DC – Donald Trump says his goal in Iran is to “win”.
However the USA president has no straightforward path to victory in opposition to an ideological Iranian governing system preventing for survival, analysts say.
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Iran is more likely to meaningfully retaliate in opposition to any assault in opposition to its central authorities, in contrast to its largely symbolic response to the US bombing of the nation’s nuclear amenities in June and the assassination of its prime basic Qassem Soleimani in 2020.
A decapitation strike to kill Supreme Chief Ali Khamenei and different prime officers could fail to break down the regime and will result in additional destabilisation, and a protracted US warfare may show catastrophic and expensive for Washington and the area.
“All of the choices are fairly horrible,” stated Barbara Slavin, distinguished fellow on the Stimson Heart suppose tank.
“It’s very arduous to know what’s going to happen in the event you do ‘A’ or ‘B’. What are the after-effects going to be? And notably if the regime feels that its again is up in opposition to the wall, it may lash out in actually horrific methods in opposition to American forces within the area, in opposition to allies.”
For the reason that begin of the yr, as a wave of antigovernment demonstrations sweep Iran, Trump has threatened to intervene militarily in opposition to the nation if the authorities kill protesters.
“If Iran pictures [sic] and violently kills peaceable protesters, which is their customized, the USA of America will come to their rescue. We’re locked and loaded and able to go,” Trump wrote in a social media submit on January 2.
Over the previous two weeks, he repeated that risk a number of occasions, and he referred to as on protesters to take over state establishments, promising them that “assistance is on the best way”.
However the authorities has led a lethal crackdown, and the dying toll has risen into the 1000’s, in keeping with activist teams. As Iranian authorities imposed a complete web blackout on the nation, Trump appeared to dial again his place.
On Wednesday, Trump introduced Tehran’s version of the occasions – that armed demonstrators had been concentrating on safety forces.
“They [Iranian officials] stated folks had been capturing at them with weapons, and so they had been capturing again,” Trump stated. “And you realize, it’s a kind of issues, however they informed me that there will likely be no executions, and so I hope that’s true.”
Two days later, Trump conveyed his “respect” and gratitude to Iran for cancelling what he stated had been 800 executions scheduled for Thursday.
‘Sugar excessive from Venezuela’
Some studies additionally counsel that the protest motion seems to be receding for now, though it’s tough to confirm the state of affairs on the bottom with Iranians unable to entry the web.
However specialists warn the disaster shouldn’t be over, and the state of affairs may change rapidly. Demonstrations could ignite once more, and Trump has not taken the army possibility off the table.
A number of US media shops reported on Friday that the Pentagon is beginning to surge army belongings to the Center East, together with an plane service strike group.
Trump has proven willingness to deploy the brute power of the US army to advance his coverage objectives.
He has bragged concerning the killing of ISIL (ISIS) chief Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in 2019, the Soleimani assassination and the bombing of Iran’s nuclear amenities final yr. Simply this month, he ordered the kidnapping of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
However specialists say Trump’s probabilities of a swift operational victory in Iran are slim.
“This isn’t Venezuela,” Slavin stated of Iran.
“This isn’t one and achieved, and given all the opposite crises, a lot of them self-inflicted, that he’s coping with – Venezuela, this ridiculous effort to take over Greenland – does he actually desire a large disaster within the Center East after having campaigned in opposition to this form of journey?”
Solely two months in the past, the Trump administration launched a Nationwide Safety Technique outlining a push to shift overseas coverage assets away from the Middle East. It stated that the previous concerns that made the area so vital to the US – particularly, vitality manufacturing and widespread battle – “now not maintain”.
The doc additionally asserted Trump’s dedication to non-interventionism.
“We search good relations and peaceable industrial relations with the nations of the world with out imposing on them democratic or different social change that differs extensively from their traditions and histories,” it learn.
Nonetheless, given the Iranian authorities’s brutal crackdown on protests, Trump could have “cornered himself into being a humanitarian interventionist”, in keeping with Trita Parsi, the manager vice chairman on the Quincy Institute, a suppose tank centered on diplomacy.
“He could also be on a sugar excessive from Venezuela, however that’s not replicable in Iran in that very same method, and it might require super quantity of army power,” Parsi informed Al Jazeera.
How Iran could reply
After the June 2025 strikes in opposition to Iran’s nuclear amenities, Tehran’s response was comparatively restrained. Iranian forces fired a volley of missiles at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which hosts US troops, in an assault that prompted no casualties.
However Parsi stated Iranian authorities have come to the conclusion that they are going to now not tolerate assaults to keep away from a significant confrontation with Washington.
“Although it’s going to be very dangerous for them, after all, the metric of success for Trump and the metric of success for Iran could also be very completely different,” he stated.
“Trump could must take down your complete state. The Iranians can’t win the warfare, however they don’t should. They only must make it possible for they destroy Trump’s presidency earlier than they lose a protracted warfare that goes on for some weeks. Oil costs capturing up, inflation going up worldwide, together with in the USA, could possibly be enough to destroy Trump’s presidency.”
Naysan Rafati, a senior Iran analyst on the Worldwide Disaster Group suppose tank, stated Iranian officers had been prepared to tolerate each the Soleimani assassination and the strikes on nuclear amenities due to the restricted nature of the assaults.
However the regime views the antigovernment protests as an existential risk, and even a restricted US assault could immediate a stronger response from Tehran.
“If the Iranians are satisfied that it’s a begin of a wider marketing campaign or that its impact on the bottom will likely be sufficiently galvanising to spark one other surge within the protests, then their determined place may result in reckless selections,” Rafati informed Al Jazeera.
If Trump’s purpose had been to break down the regime, Rafati believes that Washington would ideally depend on a “synergy” of protesters reaching a crucial mass and Iranians performing as boots on the bottom, supported by a US air marketing campaign.
However he famous that Trump is extra inclined to pursue fast and decisive army operations.
“And right here you get into potential eventualities the place the ends are a bit bit muddied,” Rafati stated.
“Like, what occurs if you find yourself in a situation of US motion, Iranian retaliation after which additional US response – after which broadening of the marketing campaign?”
Iran struggling
Regardless of the dangers related to army motion with Iran, Tehran’s foes, together with many US officers in Trump’s orbit, see a historic alternative to take down the Iranian system.
For the reason that triumph of the Islamic revolution in 1979, Iran has endured monumental hardships and survived wars, sanctions and inside unrest.
The Iran-Iraq war within the Eighties lasted eight years and killed tons of of 1000’s of individuals. However the regime survived it, because it has withstood a number of waves of protests, financial crises and feuds inside the ruling class.
However the Islamic Republic is at present dwelling by means of probably the most difficult interval in its 47-year historical past, analysts say.
The community of regional allies that Tehran fostered over many years – often known as the “axis of the resistance” – has all however crumbled.
Hamas and Hezbollah have been severely weakened by Israel’s genocidal warfare on Gaza and its devastating 2024 marketing campaign in Lebanon. Former President Bashar al-Assad in Syria fell to armed opposition fighters hostile to Tehran who’ve since taken energy.
Even in Venezuela, Iran misplaced considered one of its final standing allies in Maduro after his detention.
Militarily, Iran’s capability to discourage assaults has been severely degraded after Israel took out the nation’s air defences and claimed whole management of the nation’s skies in June of final yr.
Tehran’s nuclear programme was additionally severely broken by the US strikes, and Iran is now not enriching uranium, though it continues to stress its proper to enrichment.
These exterior challenges have been compounded by a crushing financial downfall after years of sanctions. The Iranian foreign money, the rial, has misplaced greater than 90 % of its worth, reaching an all-time low.
And the protests, which have been met by a harsh safety response, now symbolize a legitimacy disaster for the federal government.
“The ferociousness with which the state has responded within the final two weeks underscores their sense of deep vulnerability, each when it comes to their inside political legitimacy but in addition their strategic place within the area and vis-a-vis the US,” stated Rafati.
For warfare hawks in Washington, Iran’s present vulnerability is an opportunity to “vanquish the nice bete noir of US regional coverage for the previous 47 years”, Rafati added.
Diplomacy possibilities
US Senator Lindsey Graham, who’s near Trump, has been making the case that Iran is ripe for regime change, and he travelled to Israel this week to advance the push for warfare.
The interventionist voices round Trump, nonetheless, are balanced by geopolitical dynamics: The US’s Gulf allies, cautious of instability and regional violence, have cautioned against putting Iran.
Internally, Trump should additionally face American voters forward of the crucial 2026 midterm elections, together with massive segments of his “America First” base who’re largely against warfare after the failures in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Parsi famous that, although the kidnapping of Maduro got here at a minimal value to the US, opinion polls counsel that the American public shouldn’t be happy with the army intervention in Venezuela.
“I don’t suppose his base is worked up about this in any respect,” Parsi stated.
“I feel the bottom wonders why he’s nonetheless so centered on overseas coverage points as an alternative of specializing in home points that they consider are rather more vital for his or her considerations.”
So is diplomacy nonetheless doable?
On Thursday, Trump’s particular envoy Steve Witkoff stated he hopes that there’s a diplomatic decision.
He outlined an inventory of US calls for for Iran: giving up on nuclear enrichment, handing over extremely enriched uranium, reducing again its missile programme and ending assist for “proxies” like Hezbollah.
“In the event that they wish to come again to the league of countries [and] we are able to clear up these 4 issues diplomatically, then that will be an amazing decision. The choice is a foul one,” Witkoff stated.
Parsi, nonetheless, stated the US is asking for capitulation from Iran and transferring the goal posts.
“I don’t see a chance of diplomacy succeeding except there’s a profound recalibration of what it’s that the US truly seeks to attain, at the very least on this situation,” he stated.
“I’m not notably optimistic that diplomacy within the method that the administration at present is envisioning can succeed.”
However Rafati underscored that Iran is at present already at zero enrichment, however that the nation has maintained it has a proper to pay attention uranium and bolster its defences.
“On condition that the Iranian place, particularly on enrichment, has been pretty constant [and] its place on missiles has been pretty constant, it might require a really vital shift in its positions, recognising that its financial and political fortunes usually are not promising,” he stated.
Iran has remained defiant all through the ordeal, describing the protests as a US-Israeli plot to unfold chaos within the nation. Iranian officers have pointed to Israeli media studies that overseas brokers are arming demonstrators to kill safety forces and assault public establishments.
Tehran has additionally promised sturdy retaliation in opposition to any exterior assault.
However Slavin stated it’s doable that Iran may compromise on the nuclear issue and quit its enriched uranium for sanction aid.
“That may be very controversial. Lots of people would accuse Trump of promoting out the protesters, however I may think about that he may take some form of deal like that and name it a giant victory,” she informed Al Jazeera.
