With Operation Midnight Hammer, the US has efficiently degraded Iran’s nuclear program. Whereas Iranian officers are threatening retaliation, Tehran lacks any significant choices for an efficient counterattack.
Yesterday’s coordinated U.S. assault marked probably the most important direct American army motion against Iran in trendy historical past. The operation concerned seven B-2 Spirit stealth bombers flying an 18-hour round-trip mission from Missouri, supported by over 125 complete plane in what Pentagon officers described as the most important B-2 operational strike ever performed. The targets—Iran’s nuclear amenities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan—had been hit with 14 Huge Ordnance Penetrator “bunker-buster” bombs and dozens of Tomahawk cruise missiles.
President Trump introduced that Iran’s “key nuclear enrichment amenities have been utterly and completely obliterated,” an announcement corroborated by Pentagon assessments reporting “extraordinarily extreme harm and destruction” in any respect three websites. The operation was extremely categorized, with solely a handful of individuals in Washington conscious of its timing or nature. It achieved full tactical shock, no photographs had been fired at U.S. forces.
Notably, the strike got here simply days after President Trump had publicly acknowledged that he would take two weeks to resolve whether or not or to not launch an assault. Tehran, conversant in the sample of earlier U.S. administrations, assumed American threats had been hole and that Washington would by no means go so far as conducting a direct army strike.
For a lot of in the US, nevertheless, this assault was seen as long-overdue retaliation for 1979, when Iran’s Islamic revolutionaries stormed the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, taking 52 People hostage and holding them for 444 days. That disaster marked an incredible humiliation for the U.S., and the 45 years that adopted, absent of any direct retaliation, emboldened Iran to imagine it might assault U.S. pursuits or thwart American coverage with out consequence.
Iran’s response has been predictably dramatic however strategically hole. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) threatened strikes on U.S. forces within the Center East, claiming that “the quantity, dispersion, and dimension of U.S. army bases within the area usually are not a energy, however have doubled their vulnerability.” Iran’s Parliament additionally voted to approve closure of the Strait of Hormuz, although the ultimate determination rests with the Supreme Nationwide Safety Council.
These threats replicate desperation greater than functionality. Whereas Iran possesses short-range missiles that may attain some regional U.S. bases, protection analysts agree that its potential to maintain army motion is restricted. Its choices are described as minor “potshots,” not critical strategic retaliation. Israeli strikes lately have degraded Iran’s ballistic missile infrastructure and decapitated parts of its army command. Iran lacks the capability for large-scale, sustained assaults on U.S. property.
U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear amenities have raised fears of world power disruptions, significantly by way of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly 20% of world oil and gasoline flows. Whereas Iran has the potential to mine the strait, seize vessels, or stage harassment assaults, previous incidents—together with the Nineteen Eighties Tanker Warfare and newer ship seizures—have proven that such disruptions are usually transient and met with swift U.S. naval response. The U.S. Fifth Fleet, primarily based in Bahrain, stays a strong deterrent.
Furthermore, there are sensible constraints on Iran’s menace to shut the strait. A lot of the waterway lies in Omani territorial waters, and the strait is just too extensive for Iran to shut solely. Even a partial blockade would provoke devastating retaliation and alienate international locations that at present oppose broader sanctions on Iran. Most critically, such a transfer would minimize off Iran’s personal financial lifeline.
That lifeline is already fragile. Roughly 90% of Iran’s oil exports go to China by way of closely sanctioned “shadow fleet” tankers and small “teapot” refineries. These transactions are performed in yuan, bypassing the Western monetary system. Since this oil commerce already operates exterior formal international markets, threats to disrupt international oil flows lack credibility. Iran can’t minimize off provides it’s not broadly promoting. New U.S. Treasury sanctions on Chinese language corporations concerned on this commerce additionally present Washington’s potential to additional choke Tehran’s restricted income streams.
Lastly, Iran stands alone strategically. Neither Russia nor China has supplied significant army help. Russia’s deputy safety council chair issued verbal condemnation of the strikes, and China has offered solely generic diplomatic statements. Neither energy seems prepared to escalate on Iran’s behalf. With out worldwide backing, Iran is remoted and strategically boxed in.
The response within the U.S. has been largely supportive. Whereas some anti-interventionist conservatives voiced considerations, mainstream Republican leaders rapidly rallied behind the strike. Speaker Mike Johnson praised Trump’s “energy, precision, and readability,” Senator Lindsey Graham known as it “the best name,” and Senate Armed Companies Chairman Roger Wicker stated Trump made a “deliberate—and proper—determination.” Even anti-interventionists like Steve Bannon advised they could in the end help the transfer. This unity undercuts any Iranian hope that home political divisions would possibly restrain additional U.S. motion.
Strategically, Iran’s choices are restricted and more and more symbolic. Their nuclear program has been crippled, their army command degraded by Israeli strikes, their financial system underneath most sanctions, and their worldwide help just about nonexistent. Any try at retaliation, whether or not by way of regional harassment, missile assaults, or proxy strikes, would provoke overwhelming U.S. countermeasures with out advancing Tehran’s goals. Trump’s warning that “many targets stay” if Iran escalates underscores Washington’s higher hand. Iran’s threats could persist, however its potential to comply with by way of stays constrained by army, financial, and geopolitical realities.
