Zillow downgrades its home price forecast across 400-plus housing markets—see the data

Need extra housing market tales from Lance Lambert’s ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter.

Zillow economists simply printed their up to date 12-month forecast, projecting that U.S. residence costs—as measured by the Zillow Dwelling Worth Index—will shift down 0.1% from April 2026 to April 2027.

That’s a tiny downward revision from its 12-month nationwide forecast printed in April (+0.1%) and its 12-month nationwide forecast printed in March (+0.5%).

U.S. residence costs, as measured by the Zillow Dwelling Worth Index, are currently up 0.7% year over year. Zillow’s newest 12-month outlook (-0.1%) expects nationwide residence costs to stay close to that subdued tempo. So long as nationwide residence worth progress stays under U.S. wage growth (at the moment up 3.6%), underlying fundamentals ought to proceed to enhance. If that pattern continues—and mortgage charges don’t spike—nationwide housing affordability must also proceed to step by step enhance.

Whereas Zillow’s nationwide residence worth forecast isn’t damaging—it isn’t precisely bullish both. It’s calling for a mushy nationwide housing market in 2026, one the place nationwide housing affordability could enhance barely as U.S. earnings progress outpaces U.S. residence worth progress.

What sort of regional variation does Zillow anticipate over the subsequent 12 months?

(operate(){operate e(){window.addEventListener(`message`,operate(e){if(e.knowledge[`datawrapper-height`]!==void 0){var t=doc.querySelectorAll(`iframe`);for(var n in e.knowledge[`datawrapper-height`])for(var r=0,i;i=t[r];r++)if(i.contentWindow===e.supply){var a=e.knowledge[`datawrapper-height`][n]+`px`;i.fashion.top=a}}})}e()})();

Among the many 300 largest U.S. metro-area housing markets, Zillow forecast the most important residence worth enhance from April 2026 to April 2027 to happen in these 15 metros:

1. Syracuse, New York → 4.8% 
2. Rockford, Illinois → 4.5% 
3. Atlantic Metropolis, New Jersey →  4.1%
4. Utica, New York →  4.0%
5. Rochester, New York → 3.9%
6. Binghamton, New York → 3.6% 
7. Pottsville, Pennsylvania → 3.3% 
8. Knoxville, Tennessee→ 3.2% 
9. Norwich, Connecticut → 3.2% 
10. Erie, Pennsylvania → 3.1 
11. Morristown, Tennessee → 3.1%
12. Janesville, Wisconsin → 3.0% 
13. Buffalo → 2.9% 
14. Youngstown, Ohio → 2.9% 
15. Kingston, New York → 2.9%

Among the many 300 largest U.S. metro-area housing markets, Zillow forecast the most important residence worth decline from April 2026 to April 2027 to happen in these 15 metros:

1. Houma, Louisiana → -6.7%
2. Lake Charles, Louisiana → -5.8% 
3. Austin → -5.4%
4. New Orleans → -4.4% 
5. Alexandria, Louisiana → -4.1% 
6. Chico, California → -3.5% 
7. Vallejo, California → -3.4%
8. Beaumont, Texas → -3.4% 
9. Lafayette, Louisiana → -3.3% 
10. Punta Gorda, Florida → -3.2% 
11. San Francisco → -3.1% 
12. Santa Rosa, California → -3.0% 
13. Denver → -2.8% 
14. San Antonio → -2.8% 
15. Shreveport, Louisiana → -2.8%

My fast take: Based mostly by myself evaluation, I consider Zillow is just too bearish on the New Orleans metro-area housing market—which is exhibiting indicators of gentle tightening after passing by a correction—and likewise too bearish on pockets of the Bay Space, particularly San Francisco correct, which has benefited from AI increase spillover (though pockets of Oakland stay weak).

Under is what the present year-over-year fee of residence worth change appears like for single-family and condominium residence costs. The Sunbelt, particularly Southwest Florida, is at the moment the epicenter of housing market softness over the previous 12 months.

(operate(){operate e(){window.addEventListener(`message`,operate(e){if(e.knowledge[`datawrapper-height`]!==void 0){var t=doc.querySelectorAll(`iframe`);for(var n in e.knowledge[`datawrapper-height`])for(var r=0,i;i=t[r];r++)if(i.contentWindow===e.supply){var a=e.knowledge[`datawrapper-height`][n]+`px`;i.fashion.top=a}}})}e()})();

Source link