The Ghost of Christmas Future appeared to me on a Groups videocall from London.
She was sympathetic however left me scared of what’s forward for America’s information business.
Kate Scott-Dawkins, who tracks advert spending for the promoting large WPP Media, stated 2026 will likely be tough for newspapers.
In a forecast launched this month, WPP expects print promoting in U.S. newspapers to plunge 45.3% subsequent 12 months, to $594 million.
It predicts U.S. newspapers’ digital advert gross sales will develop 1.5%, to $7.2 billion, and whole newspaper promoting to say no 4.7%, to $7.8 billion. That’s after seeing 5.7% progress this 12 months, to $8.2 billion.
“It’s very troublesome for native information — it’s very troublesome for everybody exterior of the most important, extra nationally centered papers,” Scott-Dawkins, WPP president of world enterprise intelligence, stated throughout the interview.
That’s in distinction to progress in promoting in different mediums, together with video video games, social media and digital billboards, massive and small, proliferating outdoor and in business settings.
WPP expects international advert income will develop 8.8% this 12 months, to $1.14 trillion, and seven.1% in 2026, not counting political adverts within the U.S.
Greater than $1 billion in promoting is anticipated globally across the World Cup, which will likely be collectively hosted by the U.S., Canada and Mexico.
The forecast was revised upward as a result of the economic system isn’t doing as poorly as anticipated and the AI increase is anticipated to drive extra advert spending, Scott-Dawkins stated.
There are different issues. Scott-Dawkins famous there’s “bifurcation” with a comparatively small variety of prosperous households accounting for an outsized portion of shopper spending.
Equally, “a small variety of media proprietor corporations signify kind of an outsized portion of whole business advert income, as effectively,” she stated.
WPP tries to help conventional media, recognizing its significance, she stated, however shoppers more and more get information by issues like AI chatbots as a substitute of newspapers and broadcast TV.
“Regardless of WPP’s ongoing dedication to information and selling these forms of publishers to purchasers, it’s general an business in structural decline,” she stated.
State help: That helps makes the case for why authorities ought to assist maintain the native information business as it really works by its disruption and develops new enterprise fashions.
One method is to offer tax breaks. Congress has proposals for this in hand, however is unlikely to approve them anytime quickly.
A handful of states are attempting. The biggest program is about to start in New York, which is finalizing particulars of $30 million worth of refundable tax credits it’s offering per 12 months over three years.
The cash was budgeted in 2024, however the coverage had glitches needing to be fastened within the 2025 finances. Now it’s going by a rule-making course of and credit, in opposition to 2025 taxes, are anticipated to be out there in early 2026.
Newspapers and broadcasters might obtain as much as $25,000 per worker, with credit capped at $300,000 per information group. New York has round 1,100 newspapers.
That’s a option to save jobs and papers, but it surely isn’t a easy template that different states can use, as a result of every has its personal budgeting course of, famous Zack Richner, a part of a Lengthy Island publishing household that advocated for the credit.
What may very well be replicated is the method New York publishers used to create a regionally based mostly advocacy group with skilled lobbyists, he stated.
Richner organized a coalition to help native information and get the longstanding request for tax credits approved.
(Richner, by the way in which, additionally expects print newspaper promoting to say no however a lot lower than WPP’s forecast.)
New York additionally benefited from having “an excellent governor” who “understands the function of native information,” stated Diane Kennedy, president of the New York Information Publishers Affiliation.
“Every state’s political dynamics are totally different so it actually depends upon who your governor is, who your legislators are, who the management is,” she stated.
Illinois in 2024 authorized a $25 million, five-year-tax credit score program providing as much as $15,000 per journalist and a most of $150,000 per information group per 12 months.
Washington in 2023 authorized a 10-year enterprise tax exemption for publishers, saving them an estimated $10 million altogether. It was championed by Gov. Bob Ferguson, who was then lawyer common.
One other proposal, to assist information shops get compensated by tech companies making the most of information content material, is being drafted by Washington state Sen. Marko Liias and also will want Ferguson’s help.
Information organizations in these states are fortunate. Federal finances cuts this 12 months are walloping state budgets, Kennedy famous, so securing tax credit in as we speak’s local weather “could be actually troublesome,” she stated.
Longer-term sustainability: Newspapers should additionally discover methods to get pretty compensated immediately by tech platforms profiting from their work.
Thus far this has solely been doable for a number of the largest information organizations, and for these in nations like Australia and France, the place governments compelled tech corporations to barter.
There could also be extra alternatives within the rising AI period. Copyright lawsuits introduced by The New York Occasions and others may strengthen publishers’ hand.
Google and Meta are additionally making extra information offers, though that may very well be to keep away from additional lawsuits and antitrust sanctions.
The information business is concurrently attempting to erect stronger fences to guard its materials from on-line poachers.
As a part of that effort, the Native Media Consortium final week introduced a partnership with TollBit, a startup working to assist publishers monitor and monetize AI utilization of their work.
Consortium members function round 5,000 newspapers, radio and TV stations and digital shops within the U.S. and Canada.
CEO Fran Wills stated the partnership will assist information organizations set up TollBit’s software program, giving them a dashboard to see what AI scrapers are accessing their web sites and “get extra intel on what’s happening with their site visitors.”
She acknowledged that is solely a primary step towards getting paid by AI platforms. The consortium is speaking to different tech suppliers about extra instruments and will ultimately assist negotiate fee on behalf of members.
Wills stated exploring and experimenting with these instruments will assist the information business higher perceive its choices and “which path we need to collectively go ahead with.”
“The opposite various is to do nothing and let the bots simply proceed to devour our content material with no compensation,” she stated, “which isn’t a sustainable mannequin for any of our publishers.”
Wills is optimistic it’ll work out: “The excellent news is by some means we now have been resilient, for a few of our publishers for over 100 years.”
“It’s definitely been a wild journey,” she stated. “Disruption with newspapers began with broadcast TV and radio, after which the web got here alongside, and now AI has come alongside … we’ve discovered tips on how to climate these storms, albeit not in addition to we had hoped.”
Certainly, issues might prove higher than anticipated.
I’m inspired by these indicators of progress, unbelievable work by so many journalists throughout 2025 and the help of subscribers and others who worth native information.
Completely happy holidays and greatest needs for 2026.
