It has been six months since February 28, when the US and Israel shocked the world by launching missile strikes on Iran, killing Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and a number of other senior Iranian officers in Tehran, in addition to scores of youngsters in a faculty in Minab, southern Iran.
US President Donald Trump then claimed the battle would solely final “4 to 5 weeks”.
Beneficial Tales
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Within the months since, the struggle has erupted on a number of different fronts, reaching so far as the Caspian Sea. It has triggered a worldwide oil provide disaster because the US and Iran battle for management of the strategic Strait of Hormuz, by way of which greater than one-fifth of oil and pure gasoline cargo transited.
And it has resulted in an estimated 8,000-10,000 deaths, in addition to tens of hundreds of accidents.
The battle can be realigning the worldwide order, consultants say, as new alliances type and dominant ones present indicators of crumbling.
Right here’s what we all know:
Has the US achieved any of its struggle goals?
The US’s targets weren’t initially clear: officers first claimed the strikes have been carried out in preemptive self-defence.
In keeping with demands introduced on the eve of the struggle, and a jumble of sometimes contradictory statements from Trump and senior US defence officers, they embrace the next:
Iran’s nuclear programme
Regardless of Trump’s declare that the US had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear capabilities when it joined in on the finish of Israel’s 12-day struggle on Iran in June 2025, the US and Israel once more claimed in February that Tehran was simply weeks away from creating nuclear weapons.
Repeated strikes on Iran’s nuclear websites in the course of the struggle have possible brought on huge harm to the services, however it’s believed Tehran nonetheless possesses 440kg of extremely enriched uranium, which might be used to make a weapon.
The Trump administration wished Iran at hand over this inventory to the US and to decide to zero enrichment of uranium going ahead. Iran refused to do that, though at one level appeared open to the opportunity of handing the inventory over to a 3rd nation. Iran additionally insisted on retaining the capability to develop a nuclear energy programme, which requires a lot decrease ranges of uranium enrichment.
Later, Trump briefly floated the thought of US troops retrieving the inventory by pressure – a doubtlessly harmful mission.
Within the June 17 memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed by either side, Iran agreed to not pursue a nuclear weapon – one thing it had all the time pledged anyway. The MoU unravelled as its obscure wording led to disagreements about what it truly stipulated.
Clark Summers, a US army veteran and professor at Belmont Abbey Faculty in North Carolina, mentioned the US “can rightly assert that these ends have been achieved. Though for the way lengthy earlier than Iran can rebuild is troublesome to evaluate.”
However Iranian knowledgeable and professor on the Australian Nationwide College (ANU), Alam Saleh, disagreed, and famous that Iran’s nuclear energy programme remains to be intact. “The US misplaced even earlier than the struggle,” he mentioned, including that the trouble additionally exhibits that Washington failed in final 12 months’s 12-day struggle.
Regime change in Iran
On day one of many struggle – February 28 – the US killed Khamenei alongside a number of different senior officers. Trump, two days earlier, mentioned regime change is “the very best factor that might occur”.
Because the US launched missiles, he additionally referred to as on “Iranian patriots who yearn for freedom to grab this second to be courageous, be daring, be heroic, and take again your nation”.
Iran’s political management has, nevertheless, remained largely the identical below the brand new Supreme Chief Mojtaba Khamenei – the late ayatollah’s son.
Summers informed Al Jazeera that the objective might have been “advert hoc” or improvised somewhat than well-planned. However “killing leaders doesn’t imply strategic achievements, even when it’s a tactical success,” Saleh mentioned.
Ending assist for regional proxy teams
Iran’s “axis of resistance” is an umbrella comprising quite a lot of armed teams across the area that it funds. This contains Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas within the Gaza Strip, and a number of other smaller teams in Iraq and Syria.
There aren’t any indicators that Tehran’s assist for them has ended, and this demand didn’t seem within the MoU signed by the US.
Hezbollah went to struggle with Israel in Iran’s defence, and Iran has refused to barter an finish to the struggle until the Lebanon entrance is included. The Houthis, in the meantime, have launched a blockade on Saudi Arabia within the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, partly in assist of Iran.
Iran’s ballistic missiles programme
Washington swore it could “raze” Iran’s missile services to the bottom when it launched the struggle on February 28. The US additionally pledged to destroy Iran’s navy.
Trump has since claimed that about 82 % of Iran’s missiles are gone and the navy is degraded.
In April, he additionally mentioned that 158 Iranian naval vessels had been hit, whereas US Central Command (CENTCOM) has continued to announce dozens of strikes on command centres of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Iran, nevertheless, has continued to fireplace missiles, most just lately launching a long-range missile in July that killed three US troopers in Jordan.
Moreover, the demand for an finish to Iran’s ballistic missiles programme was additionally absent from the July MoU.
Management of Iranian oil
In June, Trump mentioned the US would seize and management Iran’s Kharg island, the center of Iranian oil manufacturing.
So far, the US doesn’t management any Iranian territory.
What have the US and Iran gained and misplaced in the course of the struggle?
Moreover the US calls for initially of the struggle, a number of different stress factors have emerged in the course of the battle.
Management of the Strait of Hormuz
Quickly after the struggle started, Iran in impact closed the slim however important Strait of Hormuz, which passes by way of its territorial waters in addition to these of Oman. Since then, delivery site visitors has slumped from greater than 100 ships per day to a median of about 5.
To implement this closure, Iran started placing vessels within the strait, the one path to the open ocean for Gulf oil and gasoline producers, which had not gained its express permission to move by way of.
The US responded with its personal naval blockade on Iranian ports in and across the strait. That is persevering with.
Regardless of a lot of expletive-laden calls for from Trump since then – a lot of them on social media – that Tehran reopen the strait, Iran has not budged. It’s at present negotiating plans for the way forward for the waterway, by way of which greater than one-fifth of the world’s oil and pure gasoline provides have been shipped earlier than the struggle, with Oman.
As a part of these negotiations, Iran introduced this week that it has agreed to a delivery route, which it should partially management, with Oman.
Whereas Trump has just lately claimed that the US has “full management” of the strait and that it’s open to vessels, delivery stays at an all-time low and Iran has continued to fireplace at any vessels attempting to move with out its permission.
Iran sees the strait as its predominant piece of leverage within the struggle with the US, which Salah mentioned, Iran views as an “existential risk”.
Financial impression
- Iran: The struggle’s impression on Iran’s economic system has been extreme. The Iranian rial has in impact collapsed. Meals costs have surged amid the struggle, and the US blockade and renewed sanctions have hampered Iranian oil exports, with the blockade cutting oil income by not less than $6bn. Tehran’s economic system has lengthy been battered by US sanctions, though the delicate ceasefire supplied momentary reduction. Iran’s International Minister Abbas Araghchi mentioned final week that financial stress is a “rerun we all know by coronary heart” and that the nation is aware of survive it.
- US: US customers have additionally felt the stress of the struggle on the petrol pump, making the battle extremely unpopular. A July ballot by The Related Press revealed that two-thirds of People are towards the battle. Whereas many are likely to neglect there’s a struggle, Summers mentioned, they do keep in mind it acutely when petrol costs rise. In states like California, gasoline costs doubled. That anger will possible translate right into a political backlash towards Republicans in November’s midterms, consultants say.
Relations with allies
- Iran: Iran’s concentrating on of US army property in addition to each army and nonmilitary infrastructure in neighbouring Gulf states and Jordan has not made it standard regionally, consultants observe. Iran has hit infrastructure in Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain. These states have referred to as this a violation of their sovereignty. Nonetheless, Iran’s financial and political ties with China have held, as Beijing has managed a fragile dance by advocating towards sanctions on Iran whereas refraining from changing into absolutely entangled within the battle. Commerce relations with Russia additionally stay robust.
- US: The US has confronted reluctance from its NATO allies to again it up on this struggle. Regardless of being requested immediately by Trump, they’ve refused to hitch the struggle. Spain and Italy, specifically, have extremely criticised the battle, whereas Germany, Israel’s strongest ally in Europe, has accomplished the identical. France rejected calls to ship warships to implement the blockade. Gulf allies, Pakistan and Turkiye have all equally refused, whereas in Asia, Japan, Australia and South Korea all declined to become involved. Gulf allies are additionally possible weighing the fact that it’s the US’s struggle on Iran which has brought on them to grow to be targets.
Navy capabilities
- Iran: US consultants say that claims Washington has degraded Iran’s army capabilities are appropriate. A number of military bases have been struck whereas Iran’s ballistic missile stockpiles are down by about 82 %, based on Trump. Nonetheless, Iran remains to be launching missiles and, whereas nuclear services have been broken, it nonetheless has possession of its enriched uranium stockpile. Specialists level out that Iran possible has a much bigger urge for food for an atomic weapon now than earlier than the struggle started. Tehran has additionally continued to supply and deploy its mass-produced, low-cost Shahed drones. An estimated 1,221 army personnel have been killed by April, though the actual toll is probably going increased.
- US: The US has misplaced 18 troopers and greater than 750 have been wounded. That’s “fairly low”, Summers mentioned. Nonetheless, US media stories recommend the Pentagon has severely depleted stockpiles of a few of its strongest and most costly weapons – notably its Patriot defence missiles – one thing Washington denies. These missiles are solely produced within the dozens yearly and value tens of millions of {dollars} every. In August, the US signed a $22.9bn cope with producer Raytheon to spice up Tomahawk cruise missile manufacturing from 60 to greater than 1,000 yearly.
Is there an outright ‘victor’?
Observers say there may be not.
“Each of them haven’t achieved something,” Saleh of ANU mentioned, noting that the US has didn’t translate army superiority to precise positive aspects regardless of being a “superpower” preventing a “center energy”.
China and Russia are possible observing Washington’s weaknesses, making new army calculations within the occasion of a future battle with the US, he mentioned. That has implications for Taiwan, particularly because the US has now deployed its last aircraft carrier within the Pacific to the Center East. The shift leaves the US with out an plane provider within the Western Pacific, regardless of Washington’s earlier strategic emphasis on the area.
“Iran surviving additionally doesn’t imply it’s a winner,” nevertheless, Saleh mentioned. “This is perhaps a defeat for the US, but it surely’s not a victory for Iran both.”
