Tuesday’s air strikes on an airbase in northwest Syria have been blamed on Israel, and, based on analysts, they’re a message not simply to the federal government in Damascus, but in addition to its ally, Turkiye.
Whereas Israel has but to formally declare the assaults, Syria, the US and Jordan have all stated the assault on the Abu al-Duhur airbase in Idlib was the most recent Israeli strike on its neighbour.
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“Bombing an airbase means the Israeli military doesn’t need the brand new Syria to have any type of air pressure within the coming years,” Kheder Khaddour, a nonresident scholar on the Malcolm H Kerr Carnegie Center East Heart, advised Al Jazeera.
Israel’s message to Damascus
On December 8, 2024, Syrian insurgent forces took Damascus, overthrowing the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. Within the subsequent hours, Israel’s air pressure attacked Syrian military bases and infrastructure, in strikes which are believed to have knocked out a lot of the brand new Syrian authorities’s air defence.
Within the hours after al-Assad’s fall, Israel additionally seized areas within the Syrian Golan Heights and illegally occupied the strategic level of Jabal al-Sheikh. Since then, Israel has arrange checkpoints on Syrian territory, the place it has harassed and at occasions kidnapped Syrian residents.
In March 2025, Israel struck two Syrian airbases – T4 in Homs and the Palmyra airbase – that the Reuters information company had reported had beforehand been visited by Turkish navy delegations. After which, in July of the identical yr, Israel bombed Syria’s Ministry of Defence within the coronary heart of Damascus.
Israeli officers have repeatedly said that they see Syria’s new authorities as a risk, although it has grown nearer to the West – together with the US. Israel’s authorities below Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has additionally repeatedly warned Syria to not transfer troops south of Damascus – nearer to the Israeli border – regardless of the brand new administration stating on a number of events that it doesn’t search a confrontation with Israel.
“Syria has not been a risk to Israel, and there have been months of negotiations on a safety deal between the 2 neighbours,” Asli Aydintasbas, an affiliate senior coverage fellow on the European Council on Overseas Relations, advised Al Jazeera. “For the reason that downfall of the al-Assad regime, Syrians have made it very clear that they’re focused on peaceable relations with Israel, and that ought to matter.”
There have been no reported accidents in Tuesday’s assaults. Worldwide Disaster Group’s senior analyst for Syria, Nanar Hawach, stated solely airstrips and storage amenities had been broken, however that no jets had been destroyed.
Many analysts stated the Israelis had been attempting to ship a message that Syria shouldn’t rebuild its air pressure, which it has taken steps to do – akin to repairing amenities and plane and coaching new personnel.
“The Israelis aren’t pleased in regards to the Syrians having a functioning air pressure,” Samy Akil, a senior adviser with The Syria Report, advised Al Jazeera. He stated, nonetheless, that the remaining jets within the Syrian air pressure’s armoury posed little risk to the Israelis.
Turkiye’s position
Analysts additionally stated the Israeli strike was doubtless a message directed at Turkiye.
Turkiye was a backer of some anti-Assad insurgent teams all through the conflict, and continues to have a navy presence in northern Syria.
“Abu al-Duhur is near Idlib and properly inside the Turkish sphere of affect,” Akil stated.
Israel has beforehand expressed concern and opposition to Turkish affect in Syria. Netanyahu has reportedly held safety consultations over Ankara’s position in Syria and has talked up the risk from Turkiye, NATO’s second-largest military after the US.
Naftali Bennett, the previous Israeli prime minister who can also be within the operating to interchange Netanyahu when Israel goes to the polls in October, has additionally known as Turkiye “the brand new Iran”.
Navvar Saban, a researcher in safety and navy affairs on the Arab Heart for Modern Syrian Research, in contrast the Abu al-Duhur assault to Israel’s March 2025 airbase assaults.
Reuters reported that Turkish navy groups had visited these airbases previous to the March assaults, though neither the Syrian nor Turkish governments confirmed the report.
“The strike was in all probability much less about destroying an instantaneous Syrian navy risk and extra about stopping the creation of a future navy functionality,” Saban stated. “Israel seemed to be drawing a pink line round potential reconstruction of Syrian navy infrastructure, notably the place Turkish help might enhance Syrian air functionality or prohibit the Israeli freedom of operation over Syria’s airspace.”
