Hungary’s newly elected chief, Peter Magyar, stormed to energy final weekend after campaigning to, amongst different issues, take a step again from Russia.
As a substitute, Magyar has promised voters he’ll steer Hungary again in the direction of the European Union, following the 16-year rule of far-right Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who went to nice lengths to deepen ties with Russia.
Really helpful Tales
checklist of three gadgetsfinish of checklist
Beneath Orban, Hungary opposed many of the European Union’s stances in opposition to Russia and blocked sanctions and obstructed army support for Ukraine.
Above all, he and his Fidesz social gathering entrenched Hungary’s reliance on Russian oil.
Now, following an enormous electoral turnout and a landslide victory, Magyar – as soon as a devotee of Orban and now chief of the centre-right Tisza social gathering – has promised to finish Russian oil imports by 2035. However how practical a purpose is that? And may he obtain it?
How a lot does Hungary rely on Russia for vitality?
Hungary has been central to holding Russian oil and fuel flowing into the EU, at the same time as Europe and the US banned some imports and imposed sanctions on anybody paying greater than $60 a barrel for Russian oil.
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the EU banned seaborne imports of Russian oil however stored land flows authorized. That allowed Hungary to proceed importing most of its crude by pipeline by way of Ukraine.
The EU first introduced plans to part out Russian vitality imports in Might 2022, shortly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In December 2025, a binding settlement was made for member nations to fully part out Russian oil and fuel imports by late 2027. However, as a substitute of diversifying from Moscow, Hungary elevated its dependency.
In keeping with a 2026 report by the Heart for the Examine of Democracy (CSD), Hungary had expanded its reliance on Russian crude from 61 % in 2021 to 93 % by 2025.
A lot of the crude oil Hungary imports from Russia comes by way of the Druzhba pipeline. It is without doubt one of the key pipelines that ensures the continued circulation of Russian crude to each Hungary and Slovakia. At 5,500 km (3,420 miles) lengthy, it begins in Almetyevsk in western Russia and runs into Belarus. It splits at Mozyr, with one department going to Poland and Germany and the southern department goes by way of Ukraine into Slovakia, Hungary and Czechia.
In January, the part of the pipeline working by way of Ukraine suffered important injury. Ukraine blamed a Russian airstrike – Moscow denies that.
Hungary and Slovakia have complained that Ukraine has been intentionally sluggish to restore the injury. Consequently, in March, Orban vetoed a 90 billion euro ($106bn) mortgage from the EU to Ukraine till the pipeline reopens.
On Tuesday this week, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy mentioned oil will circulation once more by way of the conduit by the top of April as he expects the brand new Hungarian management to raise its veto on the mortgage by then.
As for fuel, Hungary stays some of the dependent EU member states on Russian pure fuel, accounting for roughly three-quarters of its annual imports, the CSD report exhibits.
Because the begin of Russia’s invasion, Hungary has imported an estimated 15.6 billion euros ($18.4bn) price of Russian fuel. Lengthy-term contracts with Russia’s state-owned Gazprom, the continued reliance on TurkStream – a pure fuel pipeline working from Russia to Turkiye – and “the weak use of other interconnectors have locked the nation into Russia’s reconfigured fuel export system”, the CSD report states.
Nuclear vitality dependency is one more concern. Hungary granted Rosatom, the Russian state nuclear vitality company, the development contract for the growth of its Paks atomic plant, 100km (62 miles) southwest of Budapest on the Danube River. Russia, in flip, offered Hungary with a state mortgage to finance many of the improvement of latest reactors. The European Fee accepted the plan in 2017 and development began in February.
Now, Magyar says he intends to reassess the undertaking’s financing. However the Paks plant supplies 40 to 50 % of all electrical energy generated in Hungary. The growth plans will enhance that to between 60 and 70 %, which might minimize reliance on imported vitality, however hold Hungary tied to Russia.
In keeping with a 2025 joint research paper by the Heart for the Examine of Democracy and the Heart for Analysis on Power and Clear Air, Hungary might doubtlessly diversify its vitality provide by importing non-Russian oil by way of various sources such because the Adria pipeline. It transports crude from the Adriatic Sea to refineries in Croatia, Serbia, Hungary and Slovakia. Their refiners, that are managed by Hungarian oil and fuel firm MOL, are able to processing non-Russian crude, the analysis paper mentioned.
Russian oil has been coming in at a reduced charge on account of Western sanctions, so any diversification will probably be costlier.
Can Hungary wean itself off its dependence on Russian oil?
It received’t be straightforward, and Magyar is aware of it. “The geographical place of neither Russia nor Hungary will change. Our vitality publicity may even be right here for some time,” he mentioned earlier than final weekend’s election. And in an interview with the Monetary Instances, Magyar insisted that Russian imports ought to stay an choice. “This doesn’t imply that by ending dependence on somebody you now not proceed to purchase from them,” he mentioned.
Magyar will search to strike a steadiness between respecting present contracts with Moscow to make sure Hungary’s vitality safety, whereas establishing political distance, mentioned Pawel Zerka, a senior coverage fellow on the European Council on Overseas Relations.
“I’d anticipate this authorities to not be pro-Russia within the sense of going to Moscow and holding ties with the Russian authorities, however they don’t have straightforward choices to switch Russian gas with one thing else, particularly contemplating the worldwide scenario with the Center East,” Zerka mentioned, referring to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz within the Gulf which has blocked the delivery of 20 % of the world’s oil and LNG provides.
Zerka added that the newly elected chief is not going to have political room to be significantly cordial with Russian President Vladimir Putin, contemplating the disapproval of Russia by his electoral base. A latest ballot by the European Council on Overseas Relations shows {that a} majority of Tisza’s voters see Russia as an adversary or rival to compete with.
“It is going to be attention-grabbing to see how he combines this with vitality wants,” Zerka mentioned.
How does the EU view Hungary’s vitality ties to Russia?
The robust vitality ties between Russia and Hungary have lengthy brought about friction with the EU. Following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the European bloc has labored to chop imports of Russian oil and fuel. Budapest has executed the other.
In January, the EU handed laws to fully part out Russian fuel and LNG imports by late 2027.
Orban’s authorities had referred to as for all restrictions on Russian oil to be lifted on account of the worldwide vitality disaster triggered by the battle within the Center East. Whereas Trump has made some concessions on Russian oil already loaded on tankers at sea – inflicting a number of heading for China to head to India instead – EU leaders have maintained they are going to maintain agency on sanctions.
Within the lead-up to final weekend’s election, Magyar’s manifesto referred to as the dependence on Russian vitality a “systemic threat” and he would wean Hungary off its reliance by 2035. However whether or not he can try this in time to beat the EU’s 2027 deadline is more likely to provoke dialogue in Brussels.
