MANAGING A POST-CIVIL WAR SYRIA
In Syria, years of civil conflict that had exacerbated splits amongst ethnic and spiritual teams lastly led to December 2024. Since then, Arab Gulf international locations, which as soon as opposed the Iranian-allied authorities of Bashar Assad, have been pivotal in supporting new Syrian President Ahmed Al Sharaa. They efficiently lobbied the US to drop sanctions.
Along with sharing mutual regional pursuits with Sharaa, the leaders of Gulf Arab states desire a Syrian state that’s free from inner conflict and may soak up the tens of millions of refugees that fled the battle to different international locations within the Center East.
Gulf states can help postwar Syria diplomatically and financially. Nonetheless, they will’t want away the legacy of lengthy conflict and sectarian strife. Israeli attacks on Syrian soil since Assad’s fall, in addition to latest outbreaks of combating within the Sweida area of southern Syria, underscore the continued fragility of the Syrian authorities and considerations over its capability to comprise violence and migration exterior of its borders.
THE CHALLENGE OF REGIONAL POLITICS
Syria illustrates a broader coverage problem for Gulf states. As their wealth, army energy and affect have grown, these international locations have develop into dominant within the Arab world.
Because of this, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have invested billions of {dollars} in efforts to affect governments and teams internationally. This consists of the largely authoritarian governments within the Center East and North Africa, reminiscent of Egypt’s.
However right here, Gulf states are torn politically. If democratic techniques kind elsewhere within the Arab world, this might encourage Gulf residents to push for elected authorities at house. But overly coercive Arab governments exterior of the Gulf may be liable to well-liked unrest and even civil conflict.
Propping up unpopular regional governments dangers backfiring on Gulf Arab leaders in one among two methods.
First, it may entice Gulf states into protracted and damaging wars, reminiscent of was the case with Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s failed army intervention in Yemen in opposition to the Houthis. Second, it may drive a wedge between Gulf states, as is seen with the current conflict in Sudan, wherein the Saudis and Emiratis are backing rival factions.
