Tesla CEO Elon Musk just admitted what we’ve been saying since he first made his grand guarantees about the company’s Cybercab robotaxi and Optimus humanoid robot: His goal to mass-produce these merchandise was unrealistic, and now they’re crumbling quicker than a Cybertruck’s accelerator pedal.
On January 20, Musk said on X that early manufacturing of each merchandise will probably be “agonizingly sluggish”—a exceptional admission for a person who has spent the previous 12 months telling traders these moonshot initiatives would save his flailing automobile firm. “For Cybercab and Optimus, virtually the whole lot is new, so the early manufacturing charge will probably be agonizingly sluggish, however finally find yourself being insanely quick,” Musk wrote.
This is identical man who promised that the Cybercab would launch in 2026 at a value “underneath $30,000,” revolutionizing city transportation with totally autonomous automobiles that may price riders simply 20 cents per mile. And the identical one who, at his Hollywood spectacle of an occasion in October 2024, claimed these scissor-doored wonders would rework parking heaps into parks.
It’s the identical Musk who mentioned Optimus could be working in Tesla factories by the tip of 2025, with 5,000 items produced in 2026 and finally 1 million per 12 months inside 5 years. However two sources within the Optimus provide chain claim that “Tesla had solely procured sufficient components to provide 1,200 Optimus items and had manufactured near 1,000 earlier than manufacturing halted (extra on this later).
As of now, there are no robots doing any meaningful work in Tesla factories; this week, Musk claimed they’re “presently doing easy duties.” We do know, from videos online, that they transfer at glacial speeds and may’t change human employees in any approach.
Fail after fail
Let’s evaluation the scoreboard of damaged guarantees. Musk introduced the Cybercab in 2024 on the We, Robotic occasion, saying manufacturing would start in 2026. Experts immediately called BS. “Tesla software program is no less than years behind the place Waymo is,” Matthew Wansley, a professor at New York’s Cardozo College of Legislation, instructed Reuters on the time.
Wansley was proper to be skeptical. Tesla’s Full Self-Driving manages 71 miles between crucial disengagements—moments when a human has to seize management—in comparison with Waymo’s 17,311 miles. And that hole hasn’t closed. Tesla nonetheless reportedly relies upon closely on tele-operators to forestall deadly accidents. On December 7, 2025, Musk promised that unsupervised Cybercabs have been going to start out driving in Austin “in three weeks.” There aren’t any stories confirming this that I may discover, although there’s phrase that these Cybercabs are nonetheless supervised as of January 23, albeit from a chase car.
Optimus, in the meantime, has turn into the Fyre Competition of robotics. Musk claimed in April 2025 that “Optimus has the potential to be north of $10 trillion in income, prefer it’s actually bananas. Will probably be the most important product ever.” He instructed traders the robotic would “finally dwarf” Tesla’s automobile enterprise and will unlock “large new financial worth.”
Production of the robot froze completely final June and October. Overheating joints, limp wrists, and batteries that died earlier than lunch pressured Tesla to halt procurement after manufacturing solely about 1,000 items at $60,000 every—items that moved at lower than half the velocity of the people they have been supposed to switch. It’s no marvel he’s now warning that he was deeply fallacious (and but nonetheless managed to throw one other empty promise that we’re purported to consider).
This sluggish admission is simply the most recent chapter in Musk’s decade-long saga of vaporware. He has claimed Tesla would clear up Full Self-Driving “this 12 months” yearly since 2014. It’s 2026, and Musk is warning of “agonizingly sluggish” manufacturing as a substitute of the revolution he promised.
Right here’s a prediction
The timing of Musk’s confession couldn’t be worse for Tesla. The corporate’s core enterprise is collapsing. A lot of Tesla’s $1.39 trillion valuation, according to Reuters, “hinges on investor expectations for its self-driving expertise and humanoid robots, whilst the corporate’s core income and revenue proceed to return from electric vehicle gross sales.” Translation: The inventory is inflated on fantasies whereas the precise enterprise falters.
So right here we’re, watching Musk admit that his earlier timeline was fiction whereas sustaining that manufacturing will “finally find yourself being insanely quick.” Finally. That phrase once more. Tesla trades with the valuation of a tech revolutionary whereas delivering the outcomes of a struggling automaker with stagnant design, out of date expertise, and a CEO extra targeted on serving popcorn with speeded-up robots at Hollywood diners than fixing his firm’s hemorrhaging gross sales.
I’m not Musk, and my crystal ball could also be as damaged as his, however right here’s my prediction: These “agonizingly sluggish” manufacturing ramps will lower income numbers, put on traders’ endurance skinny, and finally finish in an agonizingly quick inventory collapse.
