COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I’m a brand new subscriber and simply wished to say thanks. Your work has given me an actual understanding of how time and worth work together, and it’s outstanding how your forecasts keep away from the bias that pervades everybody else’s predictions. Even with all of the geopolitical noise, gold dropped into June simply as you forecasted initially of the 12 months. It simply proves that all the pieces hinges on what folks consider.
Thanks for the training.
Shane
REPLY: What I’ve at all times discovered is that TIME is extra vital than PRICE. You will have a finite period of time and that dictates the pattern. PRICE is secondary. You may have a worth goal, however for those who run out of TIME, the sport is over.
TIME and PRICE are two completely separate forecasts that should align to substantiate a serious market turning level. PRICE alone is meaningless with out the proper timing.
The Primacy of Time
TIME is the dominant and extra vital issue . It’s the “material of the universe,” not only a element of market evaluation. The central thought is {that a} market transfer reaching a selected worth stage is just not important except it happens at a predetermined cut-off date.
Worth as a Secondary Goal
Worth targets are decided by patterns and reversals, however they’re at all times secondary and should be “earned” by the market. Within the Down, I had supplied a number of worth goals (e.g., for the Dow: 18,500, 23,000, 40,000, 55,000, 65,000). The secret is that reaching one goal earlier than the TIME goal signaled the subsequent worth stage turns into doable.
Markets are seen as a sequence of linked occasions (a “wave of contagion”). By understanding the “hidden order” inside this obvious chaos, one can outline situations to navigate the market, somewhat than making an attempt to foretell it with one-dimensional certainty. Those that argue Random Walks are incapable to seeing each PATTERNS in addition to TIME. As Einstein mentioned, God doesn’t play cube with the universe.
