When President Donald Trump introduced in early 2025 that he was withdrawing the U.S. from the Paris climate agreement for the second time, it triggered fears that the transfer would undermine international efforts to slow climate change and diminish America’s global influence.
A giant query hung within the air: Who would step into the management vacuum?
I study the dynamics of world environmental politics, together with by way of the United Nations local weather negotiations. Whereas it’s nonetheless too early to totally assess the long-term affect of the U.S.’s political shift in relation to international cooperation on local weather change, there are indicators {that a} new set of leaders is rising to the event.
World responds to a different U.S. withdrawal
The U.S. first committed to the Paris Agreement in a joint announcement by President Barack Obama and China’s Xi Jinping in 2015. On the time, the U.S. agreed to cut back its greenhouse fuel emissions 26% to twenty-eight% under 2005 ranges by 2025 and pledged monetary assist to assist growing international locations adapt to local weather dangers and embrace renewable vitality.
Some individuals praised the U.S. engagement, whereas others criticized the unique dedication as too weak. Since then, the U.S. has cut emissions by 17.2% below 2005 levels—lacking the aim, partly as a result of its efforts have been stymied alongside the best way.
Simply two years after the landmark Paris Settlement, Trump stood within the Rose Backyard in 2017 and announced he was withdrawing the U.S. from the treaty, citing issues that jobs could be misplaced, that assembly the targets could be an financial burden, and that it wouldn’t be honest as a result of China, the world’s largest emitter right this moment, wasn’t projected to start reducing its emissions for a number of years.
Scientists and a few politicians and enterprise leaders were quick to criticize the decision, calling it “shortsighted” and “reckless.” Some feared that the Paris Settlement, signed by almost every country, would crumble.
But it surely didn’t.
In the US, businesses such as Apple, Google, Microsoft, and Tesla made their very own pledges to satisfy the Paris Settlement targets.
Hawaii handed laws to develop into the first state to align with the agreement. A coalition of U.S. cities and states banded together to form the United States Climate Alliance to maintain working to gradual local weather change.
Globally, leaders from Italy, Germany, and France rebutted Trump’s assertion that the Paris Agreement could be renegotiated. Others from Japan, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand doubled down on their very own assist of the worldwide local weather accord. In 2020, President Joe Biden introduced the U.S. again into the settlement.
Now, with Trump pulling the U.S. out once more—and taking steps to eliminate U.S. climate policies, boost fossil fuels, and slow the growth of clean energy at dwelling—different international locations are stepping up.
On July 24, 2025, China and the European Union issued a joint assertion vowing to strengthen their climate targets and meet them. They alluded to the U.S., referring to “the fluid and turbulent worldwide scenario right this moment” in saying that “the key economies . . . should step up efforts to handle local weather change.”
In some respects, this can be a power of the Paris Settlement—it’s a legally nonbinding settlement based mostly on what every nation decides to decide to. Its flexibility retains it alive, because the withdrawal of a single member doesn’t set off fast sanctions, nor does it render the actions of others out of date.
The settlement survived the primary U.S. withdrawal, and thus far, all indicators level to it surviving the second.
Who’s filling the management vacuum
From what I’ve seen in worldwide local weather conferences and my team’s research, it seems that most international locations are shifting ahead.
One bloc rising as a strong voice in negotiations is the Like-Minded Group of Developing Countries, a gaggle of low- and middle-income nations that features China, India, Bolivia, and Venezuela. Pushed by financial improvement issues, these international locations are pressuring the developed world to satisfy its commitments to each reduce emissions and supply monetary assist to poorer international locations.
China, motivated by financial and political components, appears to be fortunately filling the local weather energy vacuum created by the U.S. exit.
In 2017, China voiced disappointment over the primary U.S. withdrawal. It maintained its local weather commitments and pledged to contribute more in local weather finance to different growing international locations than the U.S. had dedicated to $3.1 billion in contrast with $3 billion.
This time round, China is utilizing management on local weather change in ways in which match its broader technique of gaining affect and financial energy by supporting financial development and cooperation in growing international locations. By its Belt and Road Initiative, China has scaled up renewable energy exports and development in different international locations, comparable to investing in solar power in Egypt and wind energy development in Ethiopia.
Whereas China continues to be the world’s largest coal consumer, it has aggressively pursued investments in renewable energy at dwelling, together with photo voltaic, wind, and electrification. In 2024, about half the renewable energy capacity constructed worldwide was in China.
Whereas it missed the deadline to submit its climate pledge due this yr, China has a aim of peaking its emissions earlier than 2030 after which dropping to net-zero emissions by 2060. It’s persevering with main investments in renewable energy, each for its personal use and for export. The U.S. authorities, in distinction, is cutting its support for wind and solar energy. China additionally just expanded its carbon market to encourage emissions cuts within the cement, metal, and aluminum sectors.
The British authorities has additionally ratcheted up its local weather commitments because it seeks to develop into a clean energy superpower. In 2025, it pledged to chop emissions 77% by 2035 in contrast with 1990 ranges. Its new pledge can be extra clear and particular than prior to now, with particulars on how particular sectors, comparable to energy, transportation, development, and agriculture, will reduce emissions. And it incorporates stronger commitments to offer funding to assist growing international locations develop extra sustainably.
When it comes to company management, whereas many American businesses are being quieter about their efforts with a purpose to keep away from sparking the ire of the Trump administration, most look like persevering with on a inexperienced path—regardless of the shortage of federal assist and diminished guidelines.
i and Statista’s “America’s Climate Leader List” contains about 500 giant firms which have diminished their carbon depth (carbon emissions divided by income) by 3% from the earlier yr. The info exhibits that the checklist is rising, up from about 400 in 2023.
What to look at on the 2025 local weather talks
The Paris Settlement isn’t going anyplace. Given the settlement’s design, with every nation voluntarily setting its personal targets, the U.S. by no means had the facility to drive it into obsolescence.
The query is whether or not developed and growing nation leaders alike can navigate two urgent wants—financial development and ecological sustainability—with out compromising their management on local weather change.
This yr’s U.N. local weather convention in Brazil, COP30, will present how international locations intend to maneuver ahead and, importantly, who will prepared the ground.
Shannon Gibson is a professor of environmental research, political science, and worldwide relations at USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences.
Analysis assistant Emerson Damiano, a latest graduate in environmental research on the College of Southern California, contributed to this text.
This text is republished from The Conversation below a Artistic Commons license. Learn the original article.
