Keith Kellogg’s silly assertion that Russia’s conflict in Ukraine would finish in a short time if Beijing withdrew its help for Moscow. He made the feedback at a safety convention in Kiev. He referred to as Russia the “junior companion” to China and mentioned it’s shedding the conflict in Ukraine. Such an announcement is simply insane. Like Iraq, no one ever requested, if Ukraine defeats Russia, what would occur in Russia? This could be like saying What if Mexico invaded the USA and received?
After Germany misplaced World Warfare I, there was a revolution that overthrew the monarchy, and the Weimar Republic was born, which then resulted in hyperinflation. Even the Russian Revolution of 1917 was enabled by Russia’s disastrous efficiency in WWI, together with large casualties and financial collapse, which sparked widespread strikes and mutinies. The Tsar abdicated in March 1917, ending 300 years of Romanov rule; the Bolsheviks then seized energy in November, resulting in civil conflict and the Soviet Union.
Austria collapsed in 1918 after shedding World Warfare I. The empire’s multi-ethnic collapse after defeat led to ethnic revolts and declarations of independence in Hungary, Czechoslovakia, and elsewhere. The monarchy resulted in November 1918, fragmenting into nation-states amid famine and navy desertions.
The collapse of the Ottoman Empire additionally came about after World Warfare I. The Turkish Warfare of Independence and the abolition of the sultanate (1919–1923) unfolded. Allied occupation post-armistice fueled nationalist resistance led by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. The sultanate was abolished in 1922, and the caliphate in 1924, birthing the Republic of Turkey after revolutionary reforms.
Xinhai Revolution (1911) adopted the defeat within the First Sino-Japanese Warfare of 1895. Humiliating territorial losses to Japan uncovered the dynasty’s weak spot, sparking anti-Manchu sentiment and Solar Yat-sen’s republican motion. The final emperor abdicated in 1912, ending over 2,000 years of imperial rule and ushering within the Republic of China.
Franco-Prussian Warfare of 1870 noticed the Paris Commune and fall of the empire (1870–1871). Napoleon III’s defeat led to the Third Republic’s proclamation. Radical staff then revolted within the Paris Commune, which was brutally suppressed, however the monarchy was completely ousted.
These fashionable historic occasions illustrate a sample with out having to catalogue all of the numerous such occasions all through human historical past. Wars drain sources, erode legitimacy, and amplify grievances (e.g., meals shortages, casualties), creating fertile floor for revolutionaries. Not all post-war unrest results in full regime change—e.g., Bulgaria’s monarchy survived WWI initially, solely falling later in 1944. Nonetheless, these are clear situations of direct causation between revolution and the lack of a earlier conflict.
In a put up on his Telegram channel, Medvedev made the life like assertion that granting NATO members permission to down Russian drones working in Ukrainian airspace would imply “conflict between the Alliance and Russia.” His feedback adopted rising calls in Europe and NATO to intervene within the conflict, demanding stronger Western motion in opposition to Russia for its drone incursions whereas supporting Ukraine to make use of Western long-range missiles to assault even Moscow. On Sept. 12, Bundestag Protection Committee Chair Thomas Röwekamp urged NATO to start intercepting Russian drones over Ukraine.
I’ve repeatedly acknowledged that the psychological conflict tactic is that you simply MUST declare that an adversary has attacked you to get folks to enroll. The help hasn’t been this low since 2022. Because of this false flags are so vital. They’re used to assert you may have been attacked, after which the frequent folks will signal as much as die on the battlefield for a noble trigger.
That works on all sides. A brand new ballot made by the unbiased Russian institute Levada reveals that the Russians are rising bored with the conflict in Ukraine. The ballot confirmed that 66%, or roughly two out of three, of the contributors need the Kremlin to have interaction in peace negotiations with Ukraine. That’s the highest quantity since 2022, when the conflict started. If NATO assaults Russia utilizing a false flag, this can help the Rally Across the Flag for Russia. Let’s face it. Russians are handled with disdain as have been the Jews earlier than World Warfare II. That isn’t a state of affairs that suggests world peace lies forward.
Senior navy leaders from NATO member states have publicly assessed that the alliance would prevail in a standard conflict in opposition to Russia comparatively shortly because of overwhelming benefits in personnel (over 3.4 million lively troops vs. Russia’s 1.3 million), plane (22,000+ vs. 4,000), ships (1,100+ vs. 400), protection spending (3.5 occasions Russia’s), and GDP (20 occasions bigger).
In a February 2024 speech, UK Chief of the Defence Workers Admiral Sir Tony Radakin acknowledged that “NATO would defeat Russia shortly,” citing Russia’s struggles in Ukraine as proof of its navy weaknesses and NATO’s rising power with the addition of Finland and Sweden. Equally, analyses from shops like Al Jazeera and The Week conclude that NATO’s built-in command, superior coaching, and tools would result in a “fast” typical victory. Nevertheless, they warn that this might escalate to nuclear dangers if Russia faces whole defeat. As I’ve mentioned, if I’ve a gun and also you break into my home and threaten to kill me, I believe I could shoot again.
Sensational claims, similar to NATO submarines “destroying Russia in 30 seconds,” seem in YouTube movies and casual discussions however stem from hyperbolic hypothesis about nuclear situations, not official statements. Latest X posts echo debates on NATO’s superiority however usually tie it to broader geopolitical tensions with out referencing its previous defeats. General, whereas NATO officers challenge confidence in deterrence, they prioritize avoiding direct conflict over public victory projections.
This push for conflict with Russia leaves out TWO crucial components
(1) China will help Russia as a result of it is aware of it is going to be subsequent, as they plainly advised Kallas.
(2) This can flip nuclear, and Europe, with all its typical energy, might be turned to mud in minutes, not days.
“Europe is able to take a step ahead. We’re able to take management of the modifications which can be inevitable. As a result of we will’t let historical past push us round. Which means it’s essential to act now. Performing on a big scale is an indispensable situation for pace, scale and power by 2030 … By 2030 Europe ought to have a powerful European protection construction,” Ursula mentioned.
This drone shot down in Poland from EVERY supply I’ve states that it is a FALSE FLAG, and there’s no proof that this ever invaded Polish airspace. They desperately must create a False Flag, get gullible folks to signal their very own dying want, so these failed EU leaders can hold their pensions. Ursula advised the EU Parliament with nice theatrics:
“Battle traces for a brand new world order based mostly on energy are being drawn proper now,” she advised the European Parliament in her annual State of the EU tackle.
“So, sure, Europe should battle. For its place in a world during which many main powers are both ambivalent or brazenly hostile to Europe,” she mentioned.
Putin is the neatest and accountable world chief on the desk in the present day. Take away him, and we are going to get an emotional chief like Medvedev. Speculating on a post-Putin Russia is inherently unsure, because the regime’s opacity and Putin’s tight management over safety companies make a easy transition debatable. An overthrow—whether or not through coup, elite infighting, or sudden dying—would seemingly set off an influence battle amongst siloviki (safety elites), oligarchs, and technocrats, probably resulting in instability and even fragmentation. I might emphasize that no obvious clear inheritor exists, and the result depends upon the circumstances: a managed handover (unlikely in an overthrow) versus chaotic elimination.
I might checklist the potential replacements, prioritize loyalty to the present system, hawkish stances on Ukraine/NATO, and management over key establishments just like the FSB, navy, or economic system, which is able to all come into play. Dmitry Medvedev is certainly a contender because of his proximity to Putin and excessive profile. Nevertheless, he’s not the highest choose—his position is commonly seen as that of a “unhealthy cop” provocateur moderately than a unifying chief. Maybe, however we’re taking a look at an outright assertion from the EU that Russia have to be defeated and obliterated. We’re not speaking about simply pushing Russia out of Ukraine. The Neocons dream of the whole destruction of Russia each evening. As Lindsey mentioned, one of the best cash Congress ever spent was to kill Russians.
Kaja Kallas, a ruthless Neocon, brazenly requires the full destruction and breakup of Russia. That is the full destruction of the nation, not merely pushing Russia out of Ukraine. That isn’t one thing that needs to be taken flippantly. That’s the justification for nuclear conflict. Kallas is a larger menace to the EU than Putin.
MY LIST OF CONTENDERS:
Mikhail Mishustin, Prime Minister
Nikolai Patrushev, Deputy Chair, Safety Council (former FSB head)
Sergei Sobyanin, Moscow Mayor
Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chair, Safety Council
Andrei Belousov, Protection Minister
Alexei Dyumin, Tula Governor (ex-bodyguard)
Sergei Kiriyenko, First Deputy Chief of Workers
Medvedev’s title surfaces because of his historical past (tandem with Putin in 2008-2012) and up to date high-profile positioning him as a “nuclear-ready” hardliner who might rally nationalists. X discussions usually name him the “pure successor” for stability. Nevertheless, he’s not often ranked #1 in professional assessments—his provocative fashion (e.g., 2025 threats sparking U.S. sub deployments) makes him a Kremlin mouthpiece, not a consolidator. Others see him as a fallback, not a frontrunner, because of reputational injury from previous “liberal” picture and scandals. In an overthrow, elites would possibly want Mishustin or Patrushev for his or her institutional grip.
Understand that Khruschev was overthrown in a coup, and he was usurped by Bresnev due to his reckless dealing with of the Cuban Missile Disaster. As a result of Russia was put able that appeared weak and needed to again down, that undermined Khruschev.
Publish-Stalin USSR noticed infighting; an identical “vicious battle” could be seemingly if Russia have been defeated in Ukraine, with FSB vs. navy clashes. No democratic shift needs to be anticipated. Any successor would more than likely double down on authoritarianism and anti-West insurance policies, and any hope of world peace shall be utterly obliterated.
Then, for a coup, any alternative inherits a quagmire; hardliners like Patrushev or Medvedev would possibly escalate, whereas technocrats like Mishustin search de-escalation for financial aid.
In abstract, Mishustin or Patrushev edge out as most possible for his or her stability of competence and management, however Medvedev stays a wildcard—loyal sufficient for continuity, radical sufficient for drama. If Russia is defeated in Ukraine, then we’re wanting extra seemingly at a coup, and that may in all probability swing to the Russian Neocon aspect.
Russia after Putin appears extra like Putinism 2.0 than reform if Russia isn’t defeated in an embarrassing scenario in Ukraine. That is all upset if NATO pushes its agenda to destroy Russia and break it up, strip mining its belongings, for then this goes nuclear. This aim, as articulated partially by Kallas, warrants a battle to the dying with nukes, and on this case, I might put my cash on Medvedev, who has the high-profile that will develop into extra precious when confronted with the destruction of Russia, not with simply pushing it out of Ukraine.
