Ukrainian and European leaders are apprehensive President Donald Trump will get performed for a second time when he meets his Russian counterpart in Alaska on Friday — and so they’re proper to be nervous.
Certainly, if Trump desires to emerge from the talks a grasp negotiator reasonably than a pushover, his smartest transfer could also be to postpone the summit till it’s higher ready.
Trump isn’t mistaken to attempt sitting down with U.S. foes and rivals, even the place extra standard leaders would keep away from the chance. However swiftly organized encounters not often consequence as hoped, and all the pieces in regards to the go to by Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff to Moscow that produced the Alaska invitation final week screams confusion.
With a lot fog on the American aspect, it’s greatest to know what Friday’s assembly is about from the viewpoint of Vladimir Putin. To him, this can be a windfall he can use each to defuse Trump’s menace of sanctions and additional his warfare effort.
That’s what occurred earlier this yr, when the previous KGB handler made good use of Trump’s apparent desperation to safe a peace deal in Ukraine and an financial reset with Moscow. Regardless of how a lot Trump was keen to offer away, together with sanctions aid, Putin noticed only one factor: a strategic alternative.
With the U.S. now not keen to assist arm Ukraine’s protection, besides — as ultimately persuaded — when paid, Putin did the one logical factor: He upped the tempo of his warfare effort, each on land and within the air, to make the most of Kyiv’s weakening place. Ultimately, even Trump needed to acknowledge he was getting strung alongside.
Confronted with an Aug. 8 deadline earlier than the U.S. imposed monetary penalties on Russia for its intransigence, Putin’s activity when Witkoff arrived in Moscow was as soon as once more to just do sufficient to stall any U.S. motion, whereas ensuring any concrete outcomes would strengthen Russia’s place. To this point, that’s going swimmingly. He acquired one thing for nothing. The primary precedence was to maintain Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy out of the room, reasonably than have the three-way assembly that Trump — to his credit score — was suggesting.
The Ukrainian chief’s presence would require precise negotiation, making Russian disinterest arduous to cover. By insisting on a bilateral sit down with Trump, Putin can search to suggest phrases this U.S. administration would possibly settle for, however he is aware of Ukraine can’t. That may as soon as once more make Zelenskyy the individual Trump blames for standing in the way in which of peace, taking the strain off Putin.
The second aim was to discover a location for the assembly that might show, each to Russians and to leaders around the globe, that Putin is now not a pariah avoiding journey for concern of arrest below a warfare crimes warrant the Worldwide Prison Court docket issued in opposition to him in 2023. Certainly, this may be Putin’s first go to to the U.S. (exterior journeys to the United Nations in New York) since 2007, earlier than his invasion of Georgia the next yr. A summit in Alaska — a U.S. state that when belonged to the Russian Empire — would ship a powerful sign of Putin’s rehabilitation, whereas additionally pointing to the Kremlin’s lengthy historic attain as an excellent energy.
Trump’s invitation alone is a win for the Kremlin. If the summit additionally serves to delay U.S. sanctions or produces a “peace” plan that sows dissension between Ukraine and its allies, all of the extra so. However any real path to an enduring finish to hostilities will want much more strain, each monetary and navy, in addition to preparation.
If an account in Germany’s Bild journal is right, Putin and his officers ran rings round Witkoff once they met the U.S. actual estate-developer-turned-diplomat final week, leaving him confused about what was on supply.
No matter Witkoff might have misunderstood, it was sufficient for the U.S. president to say land swaps have been on the desk, once they aren’t. What the Kremlin seems prepared to contemplate is that Ukraine ought to hand over elements of the Donbas that Russia hasn’t but been in a position to conquer, in alternate for a ceasefire.
So, not a land swap, however land handed over in perpetuity in alternate for a truce that’s most likely momentary. In line with Bild, the Russian “supply” may additionally have required Ukraine to first withdraw its troops from a lot bigger areas of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia provinces that Russia additionally claims to have annexed however has but been unable to occupy.
The Kremlin may additionally be keen to supply a truce in its air warfare to thrust back sanctions, however that’s much less of a concession than it appears. In contrast to two years in the past, when that was a one-way battle, Ukraine’s newly constructed long-range drones and missiles are doing rising injury to Russian vitality and navy belongings.
On Monday, they hit a manufacturing facility making steering programs for Russia’s missiles close to the town of Nizhny Novgorod, about 440 kilometers (270 miles) east of Moscow. A truce would possibly at this level be welcomed by each side.
Ukrainians know they’ll must cede management of territory to finish Putin’s invasion. However they keep in mind the sorts of concessions made to Josef Stalin in Germany on the finish of World Battle II. He secured management over the japanese half of that nation for the Soviet Union, however West Germany retained its sovereign declare over the east and — ultimately — acquired it again. Simply as necessary is that after a short try at seizing all of Berlin, the Kremlin left West Germany to prosper in peace.
There’s no indication Putin desires that form of deal. It might do nothing to additional his precise targets in going to warfare, which have been to safe management over a demilitarized Ukraine in addition to U.S. acceptance of a Russian sphere of affect in Europe, uncontested by the North Atlantic Treaty Group.
Putin by no means hides this. It’s what he means when he says he’s pleased to speak a couple of ceasefire, simply as quickly because the “root causes” of the warfare are addressed. There might be a time and place for a Trump-Putin summit. However it’s unlikely to be this week in Alaska.
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