On August 6, the primary tranche of locked-up SpaceX shares was launched. Roughly 911.5 million shares grew to become eligible to commerce in a single session.
SPCX went up 6%.
Then it went up once more the subsequent day, closing out a two-day acquire of about 11% on the precise occasion all people had circled on their calendar because the plunge.
I had circled it too.
The Consensus Was Apparent, And Clearly Mistaken
SpaceX’s public float earlier than that day was about 639 million shares. The unlock added roughly 143% to the tradeable provide in a single day.
Put one other means, the freely tradable portion of the corporate went from about 4.9% of shares excellent to about 11.8%. The float greater than doubled, from roughly 639 million shares to about 1.55 billion.
Quick curiosity had constructed up in anticipation. Each affordable individual anticipated a flood of vendor to push the inventory value under $100.
The sellers did not present, and I wasn’t in a position to purchase the dip consequently.
Why The SpaceX Sellers Did not Present
The relative ache had already been taken.
Shares IPO’d at $135 on June 11 and spiked above $225 within the first days of buying and selling. Then they fell greater than 50% to shut at $108.27 on August 5, after the corporate’s first public quarterly outcomes.
Each share of that decline was bought by the free float. The locked-up holders could not take part. Solely the roughly 639 million shares that would commerce from day one had been doing any of the harm.
Individuals who may promote spent seven weeks promoting forward of people that could not, and quick sellers piled on high of them. By August 6, the availability everybody was bracing for had already been front-run.
Then two issues occurred without delay.
The shorts had no flood to promote into, so a few of them lined (purchased).
And the newly freed holders opened their screens to a inventory down greater than 50% from its excessive and sitting under its IPO value. When you’ve held SpaceX privately for a decade with a price foundation within the single digits, you might be in no rush to hit the bid on the native low. You’ve got waited 20 years. You’ll be able to wait just a few extra weeks or months.
The staggered construction helped too.
SpaceX launched the block in phases fairly than one cliff. About 20% got here free on August 6, tied to first earnings. Smaller tranches comply with each few weeks by means of October, a bigger launch comes after Q3 earnings, and the remainder of the 180-day block frees up December 8. Elon’s personal block of roughly 6.4 billion shares stays locked till June 2027.
Handed On The IPO, However Owned It Anyway
I did not purchase the IPO. I wrote about why in Risky Exit Liquidity: Why I’m Passing On The SpaceX IPO. It felt too dangerous at a $1.2 trillion valuation to take a position new cash.
There was additionally a mechanical motive. Constancy, my fundamental brokerage, enforces a 15-calendar-day holding interval on IPO allocations. Flip inside that window and also you’re banned from IPO participation for six months. Not a commerce I wished to be locked into.
However I already owned SpaceX by means of a traditional venture capital fund. I simply did not know precisely how a lot or when the shares had been bought.
When The Fund Bought SpaceX And At What Worth
Again in 2022 I dedicated $200,000 to a standard enterprise capital fund classic, a 12 months after the mania died down. A fund like that invests a lot of the capital over a three-year interval, and you do not know precisely what it purchased, how a lot of it, or at what valuation till effectively after the actual fact.
The March 31, 2026 capital assertion confirmed SpaceX at 9.5% of the fund and my ending steadiness at $348,549. So a 9.5% place implied about $33,100. That was the extent of my data.
Then the distribution letter arrived with the main points concerning the worth of buy and the date.
The fund purchased SpaceX at $16.20 a share and distributed shares in opposition to a reference value of $133.11.
That is an 8.2X a number of on invested capital in two years and 9 months. On paper it is a unbelievable return.
Now the half that introduced me again to earth. Ninety-two measly shares.
Want To Make investments Huge Cash To Make Life-Altering Cash
My first response to the distribution was disappointment. That is it? Ninety-two shares. About $12,250.
That’s roughly what our household spent on 30 days in Honolulu this summer, together with flights, three weeks of summer time camp, meals, transportation, clothes, and leisure. An entire summer time of recollections, or 92 shares of a rocket firm.
Then I remembered the 92 shares are solely 20% of my stake, as a result of the fund can solely distribute what’s truly unlocked. The opposite 368 shares come because the remaining tranches release. So my full place is 460 shares, value about $61,200 at that reference value.
Higher than a poke within the eye. Nonetheless not sufficient to purchase a Tesla Mannequin Y Efficiency out the door at $60,000, since I owe taxes on something I promote.
For context, my largest particular person public holdings are greater than 15X the dimensions of this place. If SpaceX fell 50% tomorrow, it would not transfer the needle. If this had been a top-five holding, I pay trim a bit of based mostly on valuation alone. At $61,200, the maths does not justify the tax invoice.
Sadly, you must invest big money to make life-changing money. In 2022, I dedicated $400,000 complete to the enterprise capital agency’s two funds: $200,000 to its early stage fund and $200,000 to its progress stage fund, which owns SpaceX shares. And once more, the capital will get referred to as over a 3-5-year interval, not instantly.
What I am Doing With My SpaceX Shares
The prudent investor in me says promote the 92 and let the remaining 368 journey, since they release over the subsequent a number of months anyway. Take some off, keep within the sport.
The one that does not wish to be on the government’s leash by paying more taxes says maintain every little thing. The corporate is rising quick, simply raised an infinite quantity of capital, and betting in opposition to Elon has been a shedding commerce for 20 years working.
The trustworthy reply is that it does not matter. $61,000 does not change my life, not to mention the ~$12,000 I can promote right this moment earlier than taxes. There’s nothing I wish to purchase that money circulation cannot cowl, which I proved to myself with a 30-day aggressive $40,000 spending experiment in Hawaii this summer time.
So I am holding. There are lots extra starlink satellites (~55% of income) to place into orbit to cowl the world’s demand. The subsequent technology of satellites will likely be vastly extra succesful. Demand for AI compute appears insatiable, and SpaceX has the capability to lease out their datacenter. And possibly there will likely be thrilling new area improvement packages sooner or later. I am curious to see how far Elon can take his area growth desires.
The entire level of investing in nice companies is just not prematurely exiting a rising discipline. That precept does not cease making use of simply because the shares lastly confirmed up in my brokerage account. It additionally does not harm that Morgan Stanley has a $300 value goal with a $600 bull case.
One other Lockup Check With VCX
What’s fascinating in regards to the SpaceX case research is that I ran the identical experiment twice. I invested the same quantity in Fundrise’s Innovation Fund at the start of 2023, again when it wasn’t listed, and saved dollar-cost averaging into it till February 2026 as a hedge in opposition to a troublesome future for my youngsters attributable to AI.
Fundrise introduced on July 24 that it was accelerating the lockup expiration on the Innovation Fund (NYSE: VCX) from September 14 to August 13. Beforehand restricted shares grow to be tradeable on August 14.
Roughly 100,000 pre-listing holders with a price foundation within the $10 to $19 vary are about to get liquidity on a inventory that has traded above NAV because it listed. The consensus is that it goes down on the brand new provide.
That’s the identical consensus everybody had about SpaceX on August 6.
I do not know what is going to occur. What I do know is that the market spent weeks pricing within the SpaceX unlock and acquired the route fallacious anyway. The premium in VCX has already compressed considerably from its peak, which appears just like the market front-running the occasion, precisely because it did with SPCX.
The form is similar. Rocket up after itemizing, then a slide into the lockup date whereas all people positions for the flood.
And here is the query long-term traders must ask. When you’ve held VCX for 3 years, are you actually dumping every little thing within the 20s and low 30s? Perhaps, possibly not.
My Plan For VCX Upon Lockup
My plan is to carry what I personal and purchase extra after the lockup if VCX trades under my year-end NAV estimate of $31. I’ve already taken some revenue promoting my unrestricted shares when valuations had been aggressive. Proper now, valuations are affordable.
I discover it uncanny that VCX is buying and selling proper round my NAV forecast put out a month in the past, the day earlier than the lockup expires. Perhaps my base case NAV forecast of $45 in 2027 and $60 in 2027 will come true too. Solely time will inform.
The additional it falls under $31, the extra I purchase. If it hits $25, I plan to purchase aggressively. I’ve put aside about $150,000 for the occasion throughout 4 of my portfolios.
The reason being Anthropic. Sitting in San Francisco, watching patrons front-run one another in home bidding wars, and speaking to enterprise capitalists, angel traders, and other people working contained in the AI labs, my learn is that demand for an Anthropic IPO can be groundbreaking. I put that likelihood at 80%.
I could possibly be fallacious. 80% is just not 100%. However I would fairly personal the publicity earlier than the occasion than combat for it on day one with all people else. Battling for hot IPO shares is a shedding proposition.
It is the identical motive I would fairly purchase my dream San Francisco house earlier than 1000’s of AI staff get liquid than bid in opposition to them at an open home.
The newest stories from the WSJ have Anthropic going public in September or October of 2026. Subsequently, the timing of this lockup expiration could not be higher.
My money is able to purchase the dip. And if my sport plan does not work out, that is simply the way in which issues go together with danger belongings. At the very least I got here up with a plan and tried.
Full disclosure: I have been a Fundrise affiliate companion since 2016 and I personal VCX shares I purchased earlier than it listed. Threat belongings can and do lose cash. Please make investments at your personal discretion.
The identical 2022 classic fund that held 9.5% of its worth in SpaceX additionally holds 14.3% in Anthropic, as of the March 31, 2026 capital assertion when Anthropic was valued round $360 billion.
Reader Questions
When you personal SpaceX shares, did you promote into the unlock or maintain? What was the deciding issue?
For these holding VCX by means of August 14, have you ever already determined what you are doing, or are you ready to see the tape?
Have you ever ever acquired an in-kind distribution from a fund and been shocked, in both route, by what truly confirmed up?
Personal The AI Buildout With out A Countdown Clock
Watching a place swing on an earnings print after which swing once more on a lockup date is a reminder of why I preserve a significant chunk of internet value in actual belongings. Actual property produces earnings, it does not require me to have an opinion by 9:30am, and no one publishes a countdown clock to my rental property’s lockup expiration.
There is a much less apparent overlap with every little thing above too. AI runs on compute, and compute has to bodily reside someplace. The hyperscalers are spending a whole bunch of billions a 12 months on information facilities, and each considered one of them wants land, permits, and energy the grid was by no means constructed to ship. The fortunes of the steam period weren’t made on the engine. They had been made on the railroads and metal the engine required.
Fundrise invests in that buildout alongside residential and industrial property in lower-cost areas of the nation. I’ve invested over $300,000 in its actual property product up to now. The funding minimal is $10, so you may take a look at the waters earlier than committing actual capital.
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Cash is just too essential to be left as much as pontification, which is why I have been writing from firsthand expertise since 2009.
