QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, You beforehand predicted that gold would decline as a result of compelled promoting to boost money, partly triggered by the vitality disaster involving Iran, and I imagine that evaluation was appropriate. Turkey, for example, has reportedly bought 60 tons of gold whereas additionally dumping U.S. Treasuries. Now, with tensions escalating between Turkey and Israel—and given Netanyahu’s current rejection of negotiated peace with Iran, stating that “savages can’t be trusted”—I’m involved in regards to the broader implications. Provided that U.S. Treasury yields are rising as you anticipated as a result of geopolitical battle, do you foresee this escalating into a serious Center Jap struggle?
HL
ANSWER: Within the case of Turkey, it’s a important internet importer of oil. The nation depends closely on overseas sources to fulfill its vitality wants, with home manufacturing protecting solely a small fraction of its consumption. To satisfy that value within the face of their perpetual forex decline, they dumped US treasuries and bought 60 tons of gold to purchase vitality. The forex is in a digital spiritual bear market.
Consequently, I’ve mentioned many occasions, when home rigidity rises, authorities search for an exterior enemy. That is what you’re witnessing. There may be important rigidity between Turkey and Israel proper now. Relations have severely deteriorated, reaching certainly one of their most strained factors in years, pushed by the faltering economics utilizing a mixture of the continued struggle in Gaza and a brand new, direct rivalry in Syria to justify the stress.
The Fundamental Sources of Battle used to Divert Home Pressure
Turkey has been one of the vital vocal critics of Israel’s navy actions in Gaza, accusing it of committing “genocide.” Turkey has suspended all commerce with Israel, closed its airspace to Israeli plane, and joined a genocide case towards Israel on the Worldwide Court docket of Justice . In a placing escalation, a Turkish court docket has even issued an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on these costs, and Turkey has requested Interpol to subject a “pink discover” for his arrest. None of this alters the home financial deterioration. But, it makes an incredible diversion tactic.
Essentially the most instant flashpoint is Syria. Following the autumn of the Assad regime, Turkey has deepened its ties with Syria’s new authorities and is seen as attempting to broaden its navy affect there. It is a main concern for Israel. On August 18, 2026, Israel launched an airstrike on the Abu al-Duhur airbase in Syria, claiming it was a preemptive strike to forestall Turkey from deploying air protection techniques that might threaten Israeli plane. This occasion introduced the 2 international locations dangerously near a direct navy confrontation.
Historic Disputes:
Mutual accusations have additionally spiked round historic points as they all the time do. In July 2026, Israel formally acknowledged the Armenian Genocide, a transfer that deeply angered Turkey. The accusation is that the Ottoman Empire systematically killed 1.5 million Armenians throughout World Conflict I, and it’s acknowledged as genocide by over 30 international locations and quite a few worldwide organizations. In response, Turkish officers made robust statements towards Israel, which Israel’s International Minister referred to as “textbook incitement to genocide.” Turkey accuses Israel of Genocide in Gaza.
May This Result in a Direct Conflict?
Regardless of the extreme hostility, most analysts don’t imagine a direct struggle possible. Either side have said they don’t search a direct battle. They’re persevering with to make use of again channels that I do know of off the headlines. That is customary in an effort to forestall any miscalculation.
I can verify that the US is appearing as a mediator proper now since it’s a key ally to each international locations. It’s attempting to de-escalate tensions in Syria, to forestall an unintentional conflict.
There isn’t any query that this can be a Center East “chilly struggle.” The battle is enjoying out within the political, diplomatic, and authorized arenas, in addition to by way of competitors for affect in locations like Syria and the Jap Mediterranean, somewhat than on a direct navy battlefield. The pink flag is the triumvirate of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan.
In brief, whereas the connection has hit a brand new low and the danger of a direct incident is somewhat excessive. There are efforts underway backstage attempting to handle the tensions to maintain them from escalating right into a full-blown struggle.
Now we have an necessary Directional Change in Israel in 2027 and the vital turning level aligns with the ECM in 2028.Our fashions have proven rising volatility was to start right here in August and escalate into November.
